December: New Years Eve Outlook

[srainhoutx]

Susie, areas N of New Orleans appear to have the greater potential for severe storms. Probably up near McCombe, Jackson, MS N of the lake.

[unome]

weather graph from Black Horse Ranch's weather station

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... &year=2013

[srainhoutx]

Ed, I just had a wind gust to 45 MPH here in NW Harris County. Also to John...once the severe weather passes, we will look toward the cold air expected leading up to the New Year. Let's just say the warm weather of late appears to be a distant memory after today....

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/21/13 1945Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1932Z JS
.
LOCATION...W TENNESSEE/W KENTUCKY/S INDIANA/S ILLINOIS...
LOCATION...SW TO N LOUISIANA/SE MISSOURI/S TO NE ARKANSAS...
LOCATION...E TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LMK...IND...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
ATTN WFOS...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...NEW SURGE OF COLDER TOPS/CONVECTIVE RAINS SPREADING NE ACROSS
E TX/N LA TOWARD THE E HALF OF AR.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SINCE LAST SPENES MESSAGE, THE GOES
SOUNDER AND BLENDED TPW PRODUCT HAVE SHOWN EVEN MORE OF AN INCREASE IN
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES NEARING 2" JUST OFF
THE SE TX/S LA COAST. ANIMATION SHOWS THIS MOISTURE BEING DRAWN TO THE
N AND NNE AND ENTRAINED INTO FRONTAL BAND AS STRONG LLJ OF 50-70KTS AIDS
THE LARGER SCALE LIFT FROM THE POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST
INTO W TX. 6 HOUR AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE SHOWING GENERALLY 2-3"
ALONG LARGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NW LA TO SE MO/S IL WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
GREATER THAN 3" ESPECIALLY OVER E AR. THESE TOTALS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH METAR/MESONET 6 HOURLY TOTALS IN THIS SAME REGION. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW BATCH OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS RIDING NNE FROM
NW LA INTO S AR WITH MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER E AND SE TX. THIS SURGE OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ALSO DEPICTED
IN GOES-R PROVING GROUND PRODUCTS WHICH SHOW A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN
LIGHTNING DENSITY AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS ESPECIALLY WITH THE ACTIVITY
MOVING OVER NW LA. SATELLITE ESTIMATED RATES ARE IN THE 1.5"-2.0"/HR
RANGE WITH THE STRONGER NEWLY FORMING CELLS OVER E AND SE TX AND NW
LA. FARTHER TO THE NE, RATES OF GREATER THAN 1"/HR ARE STILL OCCURRING
WITH THE EMBEDDED STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER E AR/FAR W TN/FAR SE MO.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1945-2245Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONFIDENCE IN OUTLOOK IS CERTAINLY RATHER
HIGH WITH SUCH A LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WHICH IS WELL INTO ITS MATURE
STAGES. EXPECT A VERY SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH MORE CONVECTIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL SET TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM N LA TO S IL/S IN/W KY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1-2" WITH ISOLATED IN THE 2-3" RANGE SHOULD OCCUR ALONG
PORTIONS OF THIS AXIS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

[unome]

not bad for a 24-hr period, nothing severe, I'll take it !

[srainhoutx]

Here is a brief 'teaser' regarding the potential for colder air that may last into the New Year. The telecommunication indices such as AO (Arctic Oscillation) EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) PNA (Pacific/North American Oscillation) are all trending to a favorable pattern to bring cold air into North America. These values are from 12Z today. Virtually all the guidance suggest the Polar Vortex will remain near Hudson Bay in Canada and there are indications that a blocking pattern develops with a cross Polar flow. That Vortex tends to funnel storms S into North America and bring with it some stronger High Pressure cells from the Arctic. While it is too soon to know the 'finer details' such as will the cold air head E or drop further S into the Inter Mountain West and Plains, the trends do raise an eyebrow and the Global ensemble and operational guidance has been flirting with the idea of a fairly big change in pattern just beyond the Christmas time frame. We will see.

AO:

12212013 12Z AO 12zggemensallao.gif

EPO:

12212013 12Z EPO 12zggemensallepo.gif

PNA:

12212013 12Z PNA 12zggemensallpna.gif

[TxJohn]

Trying to NOT get my hopes up like last time...because there's the possibility that the real cold air will head more east. Hopefully it comes straight down to us.....

[skidog40]

how do cold pockets form when higher temperatures circle colder temps. like north of Amarillo, there is a pocket of cold air at 15 degrees surrounded by mid 20's

[skidog40]

I wish we would get a cold pocket with the moisture moving in from corpus

[Katdaddy]

Has everyone been hearing about all the red dirt on the vehicles across SE TX? Lots of reports. I am guessing its W TX dust from the NW flow across Central TX this weekend just behind the storm system as we still had light rains. Just my guess.

[srainhoutx]

Yes Katdaddy. We have it here in NW Harris County. It blew in behind the upper low last evening and when showers developed overnight, vehicles covered with that Red West Texas/Mexico left spots. We noticed it settling on our neighbors pool around 9:00 PM last evening while attending a Christmas Party.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SEVERAL CALLS HAVE COME IN THIS AFTERNOON REGARDING RED DUST OR
DIRT BEING DEPOSITED ON VEHICLES AROUND THE AREA. NO DUST IS
VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS ACROSS THE STATE
WERE NOT AS STRONG AS WE USUALLY SEE WITH DUST EVENTS FROM WEST
TEXAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DUST ORIGINATED IN MEXICO AND WAS
CARRIED INTO THE AREA ON THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. WFO BROWNSVILLE REPORTED BLOWING DUST FROM THE SOUTH A
FEW DAYS AGO AND UPPER AIR WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
YESTERDAY. THE LIGHT SHOWERS WE HAD OVERNIGHT COULD HAVE
DEPOSITED THE DUST ACROSS THE REGION.

[TxJohn]

Is the GFS continuing to push the coming cold to the north and east?

[srainhoutx]

John, the Global determistic and ensemble guidance is suggesting a strong Polar front arriving next weekend. At this time the guidance is suggesting the coldest air will be over the Upper Mid West/Great Lakes Region.. I don't trust the models too much right now since there are a lot of telecommunication indices related to the AO/PNA/EPO pattern that suggest the 500mb upper air and jet stream many buckle. Since we are 7 days away, we will see how thing develop by Christmas Day and later this week. Here is a snippet from NWS Ft Worth/Dallas:

END OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...THE CHRISTMAS DAY COLD
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO COOL US DOWN MUCH...HOWEVER IT WILL SEND
ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP US DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 48 HOURS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF NEXT SUNDAYS
FRONT...WENT AHEAD AND PLACED BROAD BRUSHED 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST AS THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
SOME DECENT LIFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. NO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STRONG FRONT IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

CAVANAUGH

[srainhoutx]

Quiet weather week ahead as it should be for Christmas. We do have frost here in NW Harris County this morning and will probably see that again tomorrow morning. It looks like our next strong front arrives Sunday night/next Monday...then this may get a bit interesting heading towards the New Years Eve time frame. The AO is forecasted to drop to below -2 while the PNA goes positive into the +2 range and the EPO drops to near or just below -2. The Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay appears to be squashed S and a stout cross Polar flow develops into early January. There continue to be indications that storm systems will track beneath the Pacific Ridge and drop to our SW before traveling E in the noisy sub tropical jet flow. Let's hope the coldest air stays anchored across the Northern/Central Plains/Upper Mid West/Great Lakes, because if enough cold air drops S into Oklahoma/Texas we could see icy conditions develop once again. We do not need an ice storm. I can tolerate a bit of snow, but ice...not so much. Merry Christmas Gang. We will be watching to see what the trends suggest later in the week.

12232013 00Z Euro GFS CMC Compare test8.gif

50MB Stratospheric Anomalies/06Z

12232013 06Z Stratospheric 50mb plot 06zgfs50mbTAnomalyNH360.gif

[wxman57]

Looks pretty cold to me here. Low in the mid 30s this morning with a high only near 50. Very slow warming trend up to New Year's Eve then more cold. 00Z GFS has us near freezing on New Year's Eve. BRRR! Nothing even close to 80 degrees for the next 2 weeks. Euro is similar, but I see 60s across east TX by New Year's Day.

[TxJohn]

Joe Bastardi keeps saying this is more of an eastern outbreak...similar to 1994. And GFS continue to moderate temps to agree. I know there are other factors to play in this BUT we're so close to next Sunday....

Boring winter....

[Portastorm]

12z GFS coming in ... looks (generally) colder for Texas than the 0z run. Also shows a winter storm impacting the Panhandle/Red River/parts of North Texas around Jan 2-3.

No snow for you, Houston ... or me in Austin. Yet.

[cperk]

I would like to wish all the members of this great forum and their families a safe,merry,and blessed Christmas.

[Katdaddy]

A very Merry Christmas everyone! We have excellent members and a huge thanks to everyone.

[srainhoutx]

Merry Christmas to all of our KHOU Regional Weather Community. The current outlook appears to be more of the same until perhaps around New Years Eve. The cool pattern looks to remain in place with several re enforcing cold fronts dropping through our Region keeping us a bit chilly into the weekend and early next week. The warmer air is out West with a general troughy pattern E of the Rocky Mountains towards the East Coast.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1046 AM EST WED DEC 25 2013

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 28 2013 - 12Z WED JAN 01 2014


USED THE 00Z/25 ECMWF FOR DAYS 3, 4, AND 5, AND THE 00Z/25 ECENS
MEAN FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. THE 00Z/25 GFS OUTPACED THE OTHER GLOBAL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES, WITH
THE 06Z/25 GFS COMING IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE
MAJORITY. THE 00Z/25 ECMWF CORRELATES WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD, WHEN IT SHARPLY AMPLIFIES A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE NEAR TEXAS. THE BIG NEWS IS THAT THE FLOW OVER NORTH
AMERICA APPEARS TO BE GOING INTO HIGH-MERIDIONAL MODE AT THE END
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH A DIRECT TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER THE TURN OF THE YEAR.

BEFORE THE ARCTIC ONSLAUGHT, ONE MORE JUICY WAVE SHOULD SPREAD
RAIN THROUGH THE GULF STATES, SOUTHEAST, AND COASTAL ATLANTIC
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST. BY DAYS 6 AND 7, THE WEST
SHOULD SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS WHILE CONTINENTAL AIR FLOODS THE
EAST--SHUTTING DOWN OCEAN-FUELED PRECIPITATION FOR A WHILE.


CISCO