February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Very warm afternoon expected ahead of a strong cold front tonight.

Ongoing high wind event across west TX early this afternoon with TXDOT closing Guadalupe Pass due to wind gusts of 80mph+ and blowing dust reducing visibilities to less than 100 feet (100pm ob was W at 60g 76mph). Locally the upper level trough near Baja is providing an thickening mid and upper level deck of clouds over the region, but 100pm temperatures have already reached 85 at College Station and 83 at Huntsville under partly cloudy skies. Record highs may be tied or even fall across our northern counties this afternoon.

Strong cold front just entering the TX panhandle will plow off the TX coast tonight. Impressive capping noted on the morning CRP sounding will prevent much in the way of rainfall/thunderstorms will this front. Very strong pressure gradient and much colder weather will be in place on Friday. Northerly winds of 15-30mph will be likely and many locations (especially the coast) will likely meet wind advisory standards. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the lower 60’s under strong cold air advection and some mid-high clouds. Afternoon RH on Friday and very strong winds are pointing toward Red Flag criteria, but recent wetting rains and general green-up of fine fuels should help mitigate the wildfire threat over SE TX.

Trough over NW MX will eject across S TX Friday night and Saturday with moisture being brought up and over the frontal slope. Current indications are that the main forcing and moisture will be across S TX (maybe as far north as Matagorda Bay), but the air mass over SE TX will be dry enough to preclude much if any of the rainfall from reaching the ground. Better chances on Friday night and Saturday will be limited south of Matagorda Bay and over the offshore water of the Gulf. Clouds on the other hand look to be more plentiful and will likely keep highs in the 50’s for much of the day under continued northerly winds.

A warming trend with returning chances of rainfall into next week.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-240545-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FW.W.0001.120224T1200Z-120225T0000Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
339 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY.

* AFFECTED COUNTIES... HOUSTON...TRINITY...MADISON...WALKER...
SAN JACINTO...POLK...BURLESON...BRAZOS...WASHINGTON...
GRIMES...MONTGOMERY...LIBERTY...COLORADO...AUSTIN...WALLER...
HARRIS...CHAMBERS...WHARTON...FORT BEND...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON.

* WIND...SUSTAINED 2O TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 3O MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 5 TO 25 PERCENT

* THUNDERSTORMS...NONE EXPECTED

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

[srainhoutx]

As if Steve worked at HGX...

HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH THE SOME
ISO/WIDELY SCT SHRA FOR SAT MAINLY FOR THE COAST/NEARSHORE WATERS
(PER TRACK/LOCATION OF THE S/WV) AS THESE FEATURES/GUIDANCE NUMB-
ERS ARE HARD TO TOTALLY IGNORE. 85H TEMPS WITH 12Z RUNS NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS PREVIOUS ONES SO WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PCPN...FOR NOW.

lol...they saw the 18Z NAM (WRF 4km) and I suspect it raised an eyebrow or two...

[srainhoutx]

Nah. I agree, Ed. And it is the weekend...

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting to note GFS is forecasting snow in South Texas. Not likely to happen, but would be cool.

[JackCruz]

I.CANNOT.BREATH.RIGHT.NOW.IT.IS.SO.SOON.AND.UNEXPECTED.WHAT.IS.HAPPENING.I.NEED.THIS.TO.HAPPEN.

[Belmer]

JackCruz:

you just made me laugh so hard! I feel you, this would be awesome if this happend. Even though here in San Marcos we won't see any of this "fun" stuff, I might have to make an unexpected drive to Houston this weekend.

[Belmer]

It's also interesting to note that some really cold air in the medium/long range is expected to build in Northwestern parts of Canada and possibly slowly drop southward. Though, models don't go past it dropping farther than the Dakotas. Just have to see if it still makes the southward push.

March, might be a time for Spring to arrive, but I have NOT had my 2011/2012 winter yet. So if March means cold weather, BRING IT!!!

[JackCruz]

I don't wanna start believing and nothing happens. Plus since it's soon, everyone would have already been talking about it.

I just wanna CRY RIGHT NOW!!! I WANT SNOW....I need winter 2012-2013 to come quick....so we can enter our mini ice age and get pounded with snowstorms! YAS!

[redneckweather]

I'm gonna go ahead and fill in for my boy wxman real quick......


Folks, put the pipe down and slowly walk away from the drugs (models in this case). It will not happen...not even close. Sleep tight now.

[wxman57]

Looking at the overnight models, the Euro doesn't have too much cold air in NW Canada through 240 hrs, just a small region of air 10-15F below normal for a while. The GFS has a few small pockets of air 20-25F below normal for a while, but generally above-normal temps across the U.S. over the next few weeks. Probably another cold front moving through Houston next Tue/Wed, but no indication of temps anywhere near freezing. I think we've seen our last freeze for this winter.

[JackCruz]

Oh my...I knew I should not have come back...why must mother nature do us so.....no snow...until 2013 I guess

Imma go back into hiding now. Not paying attention to the weather...hopefully it comes when we least expect it.

[wxman57]

Yep, cold and dry this weekend. At least we'll see a little sun on Sunday. But only 5 more days of this awful month and we're into March! Spring/Summer is just around the corner.

Here's a video I took last Saturday on Mill Creek Road just south of Bellville, TX. Weather was a bit cold (60 degrees). Ran into the Salt Grass Trail Ride heading to Bellville to camp for the night, on their way to Houston for the big rodeo next week.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ride.wmv

[harpman]

Graupel falling in and around the New Orleans area tonight.

[Belmer]

Graupel falling in and around the New Orleans area tonight.

It's in the upper 50s right now there. There is no way..

[harpman]

The dew point is 25 degrees. Numerous reports of it from weather spotters and the local mets. Yes, it did occur.

[harpman]

Here you go:

http://www.wwltv.com/video/featured-vid ... 87023.html

[Belmer]

Here you go:

http://www.wwltv.com/video/featured-vid ... 87023.html

Very, very interesting! Most of the reports seem to be coming from the city of Houma, which is SW of New Orleans where it cools real quickly-kind of like what you would consider the 'Hill Country' here in TX. Temps there are about mid 40s, so I see that possible there. But 55-58 in New Orleons within the city itself; I would say not a chance for Graupel.

[Belmer]

If that plume of moisture can make its way up to San Antonio and northward tonight, Graupel and some possible sleet pellets wouldnt be out of the question with current conditions in the upper 30s to low 40s.

[harpman]

Well, I can tell you we had graupel just outside the city itself in the metro area. These folks aren't lying.