January 2025

[Stratton20]

It is long range, but definitely an indication of what kind of pattern may await us late month

[walsean1]

I almost rather it be warmer in our area. Cold with no precipitation but rain is no fun. Normally it is late January or early February for Houston to see any shot of winter precipitation. 2021 was a once in a generation storm but was also deadly.

[walsean1]

Since the late 1800s, for Houston at least.

That would be an outlier. It would shut down the city for days.

GFS has quite an imagination. lol Big winter storm around the 22nd.

That would be unlikely. Storm for this week was showing that as well. We really need a strong Arctic air mass to be in place to have any chance. If the air is modified then
we will get what we got this week. This run is more than 2 weeks away.

[Cpv17]

That would be an outlier. It would shut down the city for days.

GFS has quite an imagination. lol Big winter storm around the 22nd.

That would be unlikely. Storm for this week was showing that as well. We really need a strong Arctic air mass to be in place to have any chance. If the air is modified then
we will get what we got this week. This run is more than 2 weeks away.

Yeah, I agree. I do think the next shot of cold has some big Artic air potential though. The EPO looks to go crazy negative.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That would be an outlier. It would shut down the city for days.

GFS has quite an imagination. lol Big winter storm around the 22nd.

That would be unlikely. Storm for this week was showing that as well. We really need a strong Arctic air mass to be in place to have any chance. If the air is modified then
we will get what we got this week. This run is more than 2 weeks away.

The pattern is different and isn’t marginal. This one was always marginal.

Trough is situated over the heartland and aimed at us.

Next big bout of cold will be aimed our way.

[Stratton20]

We didnt get the arctic air for this system because some pacific air was flooding the western US which actually helped to bottle up most of the arctic air in canada, thats why we are only seeing a largely modified piece of it right now, the ensembles have a pattern in which could involve siberian air getting transported into canada and eventually the US, already seeing them with a pretty strong cold signal this far out is a pretty good indication that we will be getting more than a glancing blow lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

If the next big front materializes like I think, I also don’t think we would squeeze out that much moisture. Our really cold storms tend to be on the 4-5 inch side on the high side. Mostly 1-3 inch snows with deep cold, if at all.

[Cpv17]

The latest NAM gets some freezing rain into the northern parts of SE TX.

[Cpv17]

If the next big front materializes like I think, I also don’t think we would squeeze out that much moisture. Our really cold storms tend to be on the 4-5 inch side on the high side. Mostly 1-3 inch snows with deep cold, if at all.

Interesting though that there does appear to be a pretty strong signal for precipitation as we head towards the 15-20th timeframe.

[Ptarmigan]

Since the late 1800s, for Houston at least.

That would be an outlier. It would shut down the city for days.

GFS has quite an imagination. lol Big winter storm around the 22nd.

If that panned out.................

[MontgomeryCoWx]

La Grange gets .3 inches of freezing rain and we get nada, maybe some sleet on the NAM. Makes me think we could get a surprised. La Grange isn’t far away from us.


La Grange would NOT be too damn hot.

[Cpv17]

The NAM has most of SE TX 33-35°F Thursday during the peak of the storm. Boy, Thursday is going to be one miserable day.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The NAM has most of SE TX 33-35°F Thursday during the peak of the storm. Boy, Thursday is going to be one miserable day.

I’ll find something to do outside.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This weeks winter setup reminds me of my childhood.

Houston spared of precip, but the northern 2/3 of the state under the gun. Houston has had far more winter storms the last 15-20 years than they did my first 18 years.


Longview looks to get pummeled. My parents tropical backyard with palms and pool setup will not like it.

[DoctorMu]

We didnt get the arctic air for this system because some pacific air was flooding the western US which actually helped to bottle up most of the arctic air in canada, thats why we are only seeing a largely modified piece of it right now, the ensembles have a pattern in which could involve siberian air getting transported into canada and eventually the US, already seeing them with a pretty strong cold signal this far out is a pretty good indication that we will be getting more than a glancing blow lol

The Pacific Air will be from the low itself. Near the coast, the air modified because the layer is shallow and the ground warm.

We had more advection in CLL. 12+ hours below freezing is hardly modified for CLL, even in January. The problem is the tongue of warm air in the midlevels is on its way Wednesday ahead of the storm. However, it will still be below freezing in the we hours of Thursday in CLL. We could see some action then.

The difference later in the month is NW flow at the midlevels instead of SW flow on Wednesday and Thursday. Thus a deeper cold layer. It's a beautiful thing.

[DoctorMu]

This weeks winter setup reminds me of my childhood.

Houston spared of precip, but the northern 2/3 of the state under the gun. Houston has had far more winter storms the last 15-20 years than they did my first 18 years.


Longview looks to get pummeled. My parents tropical backyard with palms and pool setup will not like it.

Potentially a foot of snow between Wichita Falls and DFW. Denton and north could see a Snowpocalypse.

[DoctorMu]

This weeks winter setup reminds me of my childhood.

Houston spared of precip, but the northern 2/3 of the state under the gun. Houston has had far more winter storms the last 15-20 years than they did my first 18 years.


Longview looks to get pummeled. My parents tropical backyard with palms and pool setup will not like it.

Joe Montana and the "Chicken Soup Game" vs. Houston in the Cotton Bowl.

[TexasBreeze]

We have accepted reality down here a long time ago about it being a mostly rain event down here. S2k it is getting ugly quickly there with the bad trends for north Texas with some global models. Some are getting grumpy with model pics being posted now showing trends???

[sambucol]

We have accepted reality down here a long time ago about it being a mostly rain event down here. S2k it is getting ugly quickly there with the bad trends for north Texas with some global models. Some are getting grumpy with model pics being posted now showing trends???

Yep. Just saw their posts.

[Stratton20]

Euro trended toward the GFS, only 4-6 inches for DFW on this run, all the 10+ stuff is east of them, incoming storm2k meltdown