Hurricane Beryl
Yea, definitely westward movement right now
HMON and HWRF have Beryl sliding in near South Padre.
Euro shows Mexico. Although I’m not so sure about that. More worn out than confused. My gut feeling says mid coast. Maybe mid to upper. But I’m not an expert in these things. I’m trying to figure out whether I need to drag out the plywood yet and be ready to put that up. To me, it seems we won’t have much time to do so because the track seems to be unsure so far.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 1:09 pmNo…..sambucol wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 1:07 pmThis storm is wearing me out. The more north shift would still keep us in the clear?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 1:02 pm Beryl is currently north of most ensemble guidance now, i wouldnt be surprised to see more north shifts in the future
What are you confused about?
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Um HWRF, did you get into the whisky cabinet again?
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brazoriatx
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That's one hell of a jump north.
Holly shi*
KHOU is advertising some significant rain in the western have of SETX with the ridge breaking down and potential Beryl moisture, weak FROPA.
352
FXUS64 KHGX 041808
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
108 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
High pressure continues to reign over SE Texas through the next
couple of days; however, an approaching cold front from the Dallas-
Fort Worth area may produce isolated showers for northern counties.
Elsewhere, expect typical summertime activity with the sea breeze.
Highs will be in the 90s to close to 100F, and with elevated dew
point values and warm nighttime temperatures (upper 70s to low 80s),
have opted to continue the Heat Advisory through the overnight hours
and into Friday.
While you enjoy holiday activities, please be mindful of the heat.
Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of
the day, Wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing. Remember to
check on any vulnerable family, friends, and neighbors. Most
importantly, LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK. Pets and children should never be
left unattended in cars!
To echo the last forecaster...Heat is the #1 weather-related killer
in the U.S. each year. Do not underestimate the danger it poses.
Stay safe, and Happy Independence Day!
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Warm/hot temperatures and potential heat advisories will be the main
issue over the weekend. While highs do look to edge downward a couple
of degrees, peak heat index values are still expected to be at or above
108 for much of the area on Saturday and for parts of the area on Sunday.
More Heat Advisories might be needed, but it is possible that increasing
clouds/moisture and associated rising rain chances could be enough of
a relief to keep the area below heat advisory levels. Look for even
better rain chances and cooler high temperatures (could see highs eventually
in an upper 80s to around 90 range) for the first half of next week
as a combination of the remnants of Beryl, another tropical disturbance
coming out of the Gulf and a potential break in the mid/upper level
ridge sets up. There looks to be good chances of showers and thunderstorms
each day, generally near the coast in the late night through morning
hours and then inland in the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy
rainfall looks like it might be possible.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
VFR conditions and southerly winds should dominate the TAF
period. Isolated showers will be possible along the sea breeze
this afternoon, though coverage will be limited. Independence Day
Fireworks will result in hazy conditions this evening. Light and
variable winds are expected overnight with rain chances increasing
into Friday.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
A mainly light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through
the remainder of the week. Look for increasing winds, seas/swells and
rain chances over the weekend and into the start of next week (mainly
starting on Sunday) as Beryl makes its way toward the western Gulf of
Mexico and eventually inland south of the Brownsville area. Keep updated
with the latest forecasts on Beryl from the National Hurricane Center
as any significant changes in the track and/or intensity forecast could
lead to significant changes in our area forecast.
42
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Beryl continues to work its way westward across the Caribbean Sea.
The official National Hurricane Center forecast has Beryl crossing
the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and then working its way toward a
landfall just south of the Texas/Mexico border on Sunday night. Keep
updated with the latest National Hurricane Center advisories as any
significant changes in the track and/or intensity forecast could lead
to significant changes in our area forecast.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 20 20
Houston (IAH) 98 80 98 79 / 20 0 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 95 82 / 20 0 20 10
352
FXUS64 KHGX 041808
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
108 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
High pressure continues to reign over SE Texas through the next
couple of days; however, an approaching cold front from the Dallas-
Fort Worth area may produce isolated showers for northern counties.
Elsewhere, expect typical summertime activity with the sea breeze.
Highs will be in the 90s to close to 100F, and with elevated dew
point values and warm nighttime temperatures (upper 70s to low 80s),
have opted to continue the Heat Advisory through the overnight hours
and into Friday.
While you enjoy holiday activities, please be mindful of the heat.
Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of
the day, Wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing. Remember to
check on any vulnerable family, friends, and neighbors. Most
importantly, LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK. Pets and children should never be
left unattended in cars!
To echo the last forecaster...Heat is the #1 weather-related killer
in the U.S. each year. Do not underestimate the danger it poses.
Stay safe, and Happy Independence Day!
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Warm/hot temperatures and potential heat advisories will be the main
issue over the weekend. While highs do look to edge downward a couple
of degrees, peak heat index values are still expected to be at or above
108 for much of the area on Saturday and for parts of the area on Sunday.
More Heat Advisories might be needed, but it is possible that increasing
clouds/moisture and associated rising rain chances could be enough of
a relief to keep the area below heat advisory levels. Look for even
better rain chances and cooler high temperatures (could see highs eventually
in an upper 80s to around 90 range) for the first half of next week
as a combination of the remnants of Beryl, another tropical disturbance
coming out of the Gulf and a potential break in the mid/upper level
ridge sets up. There looks to be good chances of showers and thunderstorms
each day, generally near the coast in the late night through morning
hours and then inland in the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy
rainfall looks like it might be possible.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
VFR conditions and southerly winds should dominate the TAF
period. Isolated showers will be possible along the sea breeze
this afternoon, though coverage will be limited. Independence Day
Fireworks will result in hazy conditions this evening. Light and
variable winds are expected overnight with rain chances increasing
into Friday.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
A mainly light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through
the remainder of the week. Look for increasing winds, seas/swells and
rain chances over the weekend and into the start of next week (mainly
starting on Sunday) as Beryl makes its way toward the western Gulf of
Mexico and eventually inland south of the Brownsville area. Keep updated
with the latest forecasts on Beryl from the National Hurricane Center
as any significant changes in the track and/or intensity forecast could
lead to significant changes in our area forecast.
42
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024
Beryl continues to work its way westward across the Caribbean Sea.
The official National Hurricane Center forecast has Beryl crossing
the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and then working its way toward a
landfall just south of the Texas/Mexico border on Sunday night. Keep
updated with the latest National Hurricane Center advisories as any
significant changes in the track and/or intensity forecast could lead
to significant changes in our area forecast.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 20 20
Houston (IAH) 98 80 98 79 / 20 0 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 95 82 / 20 0 20 10
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HMON says hold my margarita.
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brazoriatx
- Posts: 415
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
12z euro really loves northern mexico
It sure seems that way.
It’ll be wrong. Beryl is Texas bound.
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brazoriatx
- Posts: 415
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
It’ll be Texas bound. I feel pretty confident in saying that. I’m just not sure which part of TX.brazoriatx wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 1:54 pmTake.it.to.the.bank!
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AtascocitaWX
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- Location: Atascocita,Tx
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Maybe too many beers but I see a wnw movement, not a wast movement.
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brazoriatx
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- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
Lol maybe one to many..never heard of a hurricane moving wast..AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:14 pm Maybe too many beers but I see a wnw movement, not a wast movement.
Which is where i'm headed.
Last edited by cperk on Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Too early for me to be drinking lol might have a few after 4 or 5, but I didn’t get enough sleep last night so I’m not really even in the mood to drink much.
I just saw that more northerly jog.AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:14 pm Maybe too many beers but I see a wnw movement, not a wast movement.
Yes it is!
https://youtu.be/BPCjC543llU?si=mYWCEfzcMyDm4yBG
...passes like molasses in wintertime. But it's July.
So…..if Beryl makes landfall in S TX, will we get rain in League City? Please say yes.