2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[DoctorMu]

Ernesto exiting, as the Atlantic tropics should settle down for a bit now
August 19, 2024 at 11:16 am by Matt Lanza


Headlines



Ernesto will exit out to sea tonight and tomorrow, brushing southern Newfoundland with some impacts on the way out.
The Atlantic looks quiet through early next week.
If we want to scope out trouble that isn’t showing up on models, we’ll watch a Gulf disturbance this weekend and early next week; unlikely to develop but will bring some welcome rain chances back to Texas.
Ernesto finds the exit ramp
After impacting Bermuda and sending a bunch of rough surf toward the Atlantic coast of the U.S. and Canada, Hurricane Ernesto is on the way out the door today.


Hurricane Ernesto is accelerating off to the northeast, while flinging clouds and perhaps some modest impacts to southeastern Newfoundland.
Ernesto is now moving northeast at 28 mph and taking on that “look” of a storm in transition from tropical system to post-tropical low pressure. Winds are 90 mph with Ernesto, and the wind field remains large, with tropical storm force winds expanding out 220 miles from the center. As Ernesto makes its closest pass to Newfoundland tonight, wind, rain, and rough seas will likely impact the Avalon Peninsula.


Ernesto’s track will bring it close to the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight before it exits out to sea.
With Ernesto moving along quickly, conditions should deteriorate there quickly tonight, then improve quickly tomorrow. By tomorrow night, Ernesto should be full extratropical/post-tropical and racing east-northeast across the Atlantic. And that closes the book on the fifth storm of 2024.

A lull for a moment
The Atlantic basin will shut down post-Ernesto for a moment or two. Or three. Who knows. Tropical activity over the next 7 days is expected to be basically non-existent.


A plot of European ensemble tropical systems over the next 7 days shows virtually nothing after Ernesto.
How long this lull lasts is tough to say. We’ll dive more into the context of all this and how this season stacks up vs past seasons a little later this week (and key reasons to not write it off as a “bust” in mid-August). For now, I don’t see anything really of note out there over the next 7 to 10 days. I do believe conditions will shift more favorable for activity as the calendar flips to September. But that’s an average confidence feeling right now.

If we want to dig for trouble that could surprise us, we could maybe look in the Gulf this weekend or next week. It appears that a disturbance is going to swing in either off the Atlantic or from inland thunderstorms across the Southeast and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. From there it will follow its way around the periphery of a Central Plains ridge of high pressure across the Gulf toward Texas.


Mid-level disturbance may be worth watching as it swings across the Gulf this weekend or early next week. Not expected to develop, but it should bring increasing rain chances to Texas next week.
Again, we’re looking for surprise trouble here, which is to say that no model currently develops this at all. And that’s the most likely outcome. But, we’ll keep tabs on it just in case. Regardless, this will probably bring an increase in rain chances to Texas next week, which has gone fairly dry this month. Most rain will be welcome.

But aside from that, I think we’re on a pre-peak break in the Atlantic through early next week. We’ll take it.

We''ll be around NOLA the weekend of Sept 7. I can almost guarantee some home-brew mischief in the LATX area then!

[tireman4]

Gulf of Mexico Heat Content...the highest ocean heat content in the Gulf on record

[DoctorMu]

Gulf of Mexico Heat Content...the highest ocean heat content in the Gulf on record

Any home brews have the potential to Bomb out.

[Stratton20]

Yeah thats insane, thats why im concerned that beryl was just a warning, i wouldnt be shocked if we have several majors get into the gulf and or strengthen

[Stratton20]

GFS 18z has trended toward the Euro with a stronger surface reflection as the wave approaches the texas coast line, almost reminds me of Imelda, maybe a last second spin up? Its getting a little more interesting

[dp6]

Need 4-5 more weeks of blocking the hurricanes from Houston, until the fronts start making it through. Then it can rain all y'all want. Thanks.

[tireman4]

Tropical Outlook

[Stormlover2020]

Need 4-5 more weeks of blocking the hurricanes from Houston, until the fronts start making it through. Then it can rain all y'all want. Thanks.

This isn’t ur normal pattern, 1st to 2nd of October then u can say that

[Stratton20]

CMC 12z develops our gulf low into a weak TS before loving in land near corpus

[Stratton20]

the 00z CMC is attempting to close off a weak surface circulation with the upper low offshore of texas at hour 78, thats not a lot of time, this upper low could be feally sneaky

[tireman4]

Site logo image The Eyewall
Remaining calm in the Atlantic while the Pacific finds its groove
By Matt Lanza on August 22, 2024

Headlines
The Atlantic does not have a specific candidate for development over the next week or more.
The Gulf may be an area to watch next week, but most modeling is mum on development chances.
Tropical Depression 1C will likely become a tropical storm and pass just south of Hawaii in the Pacific.
Atlantic remains quiet
Yesterday's post went in detail about some of the possible reasons behind the quieter overall pace of storms this season and especially in August. Today, let's check in on the real time and forecast.


The satellite imagery over the Atlantic Basin today looks more like something from June than late August.
If you asked me to tell you the date of the satellite image above without knowing anything about it, I would easily tell you probably June or early July. Or later in October or something. The only real tell might be that my eyes are trained to discern Saharan dust off of Africa in the infrared band of the satellite. But whatever it is, the takeaway here is that this is about as quiet as you will ever see a late August satellite image look over the Atlantic. There are currently no areas of interest. And when you look at the very latest 12z European model for the next 3 weeks, there are only scattered pockets of "noise" showing up in the forecast, and no real specific tropical wave to focus in on.


European ensemble forecast of low pressure centers over the next 15 days shows very little signal and only a modest amount of noise.
And within that noise, there is little signal to really pick up on. Maybe there's a wave late that's a recurve candidate out to sea? That's about all I see here. That isn't to say that there will be no systems to track over the next 2 weeks, it's just that there isn't exactly a strong signal for anything in particular right now. Which is unfathomable for late August in any year, let alone this one.

Now, I will say it's wise to keep an eye on the Gulf next week. There is one little disturbance that comes ashore in Texas on Monday, ushering in a better chance of rainfall for much of the southern and eastern part of the (increasingly dry) state. Beyond that, I have seen the GFS model try to latch onto a tropical wave currently over Hispaniola. It never really develops it, but it does try to bring it into Texas or Louisiana later next week.


The GFS model shows a tropical wave approaching Texas or Louisiana later next week, unlikely to develop but worth watching.
Do I agree with this? No. But any meteorologist worth their salt would not discount a tropical wave in the Gulf in late August. So it should be babysat, but I wouldn't be too worried right now. At the least, hopefully all this opens up some rain risks in these areas. Since the calendar flipped to August, rain has been tough to come back in all of Texas and all of Louisiana. Houston is running about 20 percent of normal rainfall this month, while much of East Texas is less than 5 percent of normal. Louisiana is less the half of normal as well. Rain would be welcome.


Rainfall has been almost non-existent this month in much of Texas and Louisiana -- and points northeast.
We'll keep an eye on this as it evolves.

The Pacific is busy
While the Atlantic is on hiatus, the Pacific is busy. Hurricane Gilma is now a strong category 3 storm, heading for nowhere. Another disturbance behind Gilma is likely to form. And just this afternoon, we have Tropical Depression 1C in the central Pacific.


Tropical Depression 1C is currently expected to pass south of Hawaii.
This one is not expected to become a significant storm, but it is expected to become a tropical storm as it passes south of Hawaii. Impacts to the islands may include heavy rainfall and gusty winds by Sunday or Monday, especially on the Big Islands, but it's a little too soon to say much more than that at this point. We'll keep an eye on this one as well.

[Stratton20]

ABC13 weather does mention the possibility of a weak TD/TS spin up next week fwiw

[Pas_Bon]

ABC13 weather does mention the possibility of a weak TD/TS spin up next week fwiw

I’m going to pay more attention to Herzog/ABC13 compared to anyone else at this juncture because of his insistence of a Houston danger for Beryl when all else were writing her off.

He bungled the polar plunge in January, but he’s been great otherwise.

[Cpv17]

The tropics are about to heat up. Enjoy the quiet while it lasts.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 exactly, the fuse has been lit, its coming, these seasons a bust or its over social media comments are going to age terribly, ill never get why people continue to say that lol

[tireman4]

The Eyewall
Atlantic slumbers on, while Tropical Storm Hone in the Pacific will swipe at Hawaii
By Matt Lanza on August 23, 2024

Headlines
The Atlantic remains quiet for the foreseeable future.
Tropical Storm Hone will bring heavy rain and strong winds to parts of Hawaii later this week.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Big Island.
Thank you to our Friday featured sponsor: EnhanceCo!
Searching for signs of life in the Atlantic
All remains quiet in the Atlantic basin with no signs of any real meaningful activity expected over the next week or two. Odds of any activity on the Euro ensemble for the next 10 days look muted as well.


Probability of tropical development from the European ensemble appears to be 10 to 20 percent or less over the next 10 days, which is a very low value from a 51 member ensemble.
You can ignore what you see off the coast of South America. The only real candidate over the next couple weeks is probably a tropical wave that emerges off Africa around days 9 to 10. But even that seems like a low possibility. Yesterday's extended range forecast from the European model into the first full week of September shows about half as much ACE as normal, meaning it predicts below average activity through about September 10th, the historical peak date of hurricane season.


Atlantic tropical activity is forecast to be below normal through week 3 from the European model.
Does this change in weeks 4 and 5? Yes, however it never gets above normal. This argues that conditions will become more favorable for tropical development as September progresses. But it may argue that conditions end up less favorable than were feared coming into the season. At the risk of jinxing things, I'll stop there. From an accumulated cyclone energy standpoint, we are now 18 percent of the way through hurricane season. If we get to September 2nd (10 days) with nothing, we'll be 34 percent of the way there. Historically, we ramp up quickly now. That we're quiet through the next 7 days or more is great news.

Honing in on Hawaii
Meanwhile, the Pacific continues to pick up the slack (though you can see from the chart above that this may not continue). Hurricane Gilma continues on a road to nowhere, though its remnants could impact Hawaii next week. Behind Gilma, a new storm should form this weekend or early next week. But of more consequence is Tropical Storm Hone (Pronounce HOH-neh). A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii.


Hone is expected to pass just south of the Big Island on Saturday night as a strong tropical storm.
Impacts to Hawaii will be mixed. Storms aren't as straightforward in Hawaii as they can be at times in the Mainland of the U.S. Terrain plays a huge role in who sees what. For example, with Hone passing south of Hawaii, there will be substantial upslope rain with winds out of the southeast that occurs on the southeast facing slopes of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea. Rain will likely expand into other islands as well, but that will also be locally influenced by terrain. The strongest winds from Hone will occur on the downslope or western facing slopes and through passes. Winds could gust as high as 40 to 60 mph for folks.


Rain in Hawaii from Hone will be highest on the southeast facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui with slightly lesser amounts to the west.
Hone will continue off to the west, and then we'll see what happens with Gilma's remnants next week.

[dp6]

Need 4-5 more weeks of blocking the hurricanes from Houston, until the fronts start making it through. Then it can rain all y'all want. Thanks.

This isn’t ur normal pattern, 1st to 2nd of October then u can say that

Somewhat, but a Houston strike by a major is very rare after mid-Sept. In part because fronts sometimes start making it through. I could have asked through early Oct but didn't want to be greedy....

[Cpv17]

Need 4-5 more weeks of blocking the hurricanes from Houston, until the fronts start making it through. Then it can rain all y'all want. Thanks.

This isn’t ur normal pattern, 1st to 2nd of October then u can say that

Somewhat, but a Houston strike by a major is very rare after mid-Sept. In part because fronts sometimes start making it through. I could have asked through early Oct but didn't want to be greedy....

I usually like to wait till after the third week of September to say we’re in the clear. Usually how it works.

[Stratton20]

Yup, we still along ways to go, eventually these waves are going to stop struggling, with all of that OHC in the gulf, its just a matter of time before a wave finds that, its just when not if, even if activity is just average from here on out, some of the most impactful hurricanes to strike the gulf coast have occurred in just “average” seasons, so we definitely arent in the clear, at least for not another ~5 weeks or so

[biggerbyte]

Based on current observations we are looking out at least ten days before anything of substance possibly gets enough snuff to worry about. Ten days, folks. We all know how the models are beyond three. We see what we see now, and anything beyond ten days is pure fantasy. I agree that folks shouldn't call anything concrete at this juncture, but that applies in both directions. Some are taking model forecasts way out in to la la land and suggesting "it's coming.".. 57 may get a face full of egg, or he may indeed get the last laugh.