Sorry for my excitement guys, but wow the Euro has a very similar setup at the 500mb level at 10 days out as the FV3. And the 0z Euro has a massive 1054mb high pressure building at day 10 north of the far NW territories of Canada which is in the perfect spot to deliver us frigid air in Texas.
This is officially the most promising looking setup I’ve seen on the models so far this winter!
28 here at my house near Lake Conroe Dam. The wind was incredible yesterday! I will admit, this front had a lot more back bone than I thought it would have. Love those big fronts packing strong cold north winds that sweep everything out leaving deep eternal blue skies in its wake.
Low temperature hit 29F briefly in NW Harris County this morning. That light NW breeze still has a bite though. Rollercoaster weather week ahead. Another front Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with a strong backdoor front next weekend.
I see the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to turn rather negative over the next week or so. The North Atlantic Oscillation is also suggested to turn negative as well as the Pacific North America Oscillation as the end of January nears. We will see if those Atmospheric indicators bring any change to our sensible weather down here in Central/Coastal Texas and Louisiana as we head to February.
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I had 30.8 and just climbed back above freezing. Everything was covered well, so the plants should be OK...with these advective freezes (windy) you just don’t know. Will be a couple of days to know for sure.
Freeze protection activated on our pool when I got up this morning. Not sure we actually hit the freeze mark, but is quite chilly! Beautiful chilly day.
Things seem to be settled with the general direction that the atmosphere is moving so I think models should start being a bit more consistent....so maybe we can have some run verify further out. Maybe?
CRASHWX wrote: ↑Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:43 pm
Things seem to be settled with the general direction that the atmosphere is moving so I think models should start being a bit more consistent....so maybe we can have some run verify further out. Maybe?
It’s good to see the higher heights in the SW replaced with lower heights ..all while having a -NAO and -EPO.
CRASHWX wrote: ↑Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:43 pm
Things seem to be settled with the general direction that the atmosphere is moving so I think models should start being a bit more consistent....so maybe we can have some run verify further out. Maybe?
It’s good to see the higher heights in the SW replaced with lower heights ..all while having a -NAO and -EPO.
Taking what Srain has said and obviously your observations and the things I have seen on Westherbell...I think things are gonna start moving towards some real real winter weather for SETX...like I said before I hope the models start trending with more consistency
What is interesting is the GFS starts to build a storm but just looses everything...the Euro has the cold moving in and then Low moving in post cold...agree 28 to 31 seems to be the window to watch
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 20, 2019 6:49 pm
Probably shouldn’t post this, but sorry I just can’t help it lol the FV3 is a freezer for Texas.
"You guys are making me feel dumb and I’ll eat my crow if I’m wrong," one if the many reasons why I don't post on s2k..
Yeah lol they act like I know nothing about the weather. There’s only about 4 people on there that they will listen to. I don’t quite understand people sometimes. The models are looking phenomenal right now. Best I’ve seen them look at any point this whole winter and people are basically bashing me for being excited about it. Oh well, we probably shouldn’t be talking about that on here. Probably will get warned or something for this. Probably should just stay on topic.
the Euro has a very similar setup at the 500mb level at 10 days out as the FV3. And the 0z Euro has a massive 1054mb high pressure building at day 10 north of the far NW territories of Canada which is in the perfect spot to deliver us frigid air in Texas. 
CRASHWX 
