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CMC is coming in further north

djjordan wrote:

tgal wrote:Portland, Tx where the hurricane is headed

Driving there would probably be ok ... but she will undoubtedly run into problems this weekend and the trip back will likely not be able to happen. Best course of action is not to go!!!!

Driving there may not even be an option tomorrow. If the euro and 6z gfs continues to show a ri cycle then it isnt far fetched that they call for evacs.

What is your opinion of it actually bombing out? Gfs Shows it meandering around Matagorda bay for awhile. 20+ inches around Houston.

Scott747 wrote:

djjordan wrote:

tgal wrote:Portland, Tx where the hurricane is headed

Driving there would probably be ok ... but she will undoubtedly run into problems this weekend and the trip back will likely not be able to happen. Best course of action is not to go!!!!

Driving there may not even be an option tomorrow. If the euro and 6z gfs continues to show a ri cycle then it isnt far fetched that they call for evacs.

You are correct.... as I typed and posted that I looked at the latest GFS!!! Needless to say, Harvey looked pretty mean!!!

BTW.... Air Force Reconnaissance has found TS winds and Harvey is now a Tropical Storm.

Yep. We have Tropical Storm Harvey now.

Thank all of you so very much. I have a very disappointed daughter but you helped. As of now she is going to call it off. I hope they do call for evacuations because I am worried about her family that is down there.

Again, I really appreciate your help

mcheer23 wrote:CMC is coming in further north

This is at 1st landfall?

Rip76 wrote:

mcheer23 wrote:CMC is coming in further north

This is at 1st landfall?

CMC only has one landfall.


GFS has 2, GFS actually has my area (Sugar Land) getting about 28 inches of rain on the 00z

mcheer23 wrote:

Rip76 wrote:

mcheer23 wrote:CMC is coming in further north

This is at 1st landfall?

CMC only has one landfall.


GFS has 2, GFS actually has my area (Sugar Land) getting about 28 inches of rain on the 00z

Ok, I'm in Pearland. Not that far away.

Can someone post a map of rainfall totals from the GFS Oz run?

I was hoping the southwest movement after landfall would gain more traction. That would decrease rain here substantially. Unfortunately with the GFS moving to the northeast again the ECMWF may be on track for some serious flooding here late over the weekend into early next week.

James Spann just tweeted this Precip map!!! GFS total precip!!!

GFS total precip shows even if this makes landfall to the south we could still see plenty of impact locally.

Another NOAA mission is already up and forgot to mention there is a global hawk flying as well. Combine that with the late stages of the current recon mission and it's safe to say all hands are on deck. Any hiccups with track and 6z runs will pick up on it.

Scott747 wrote:Another NOAA mission is already up and forgot to mention there is a global hawk flying as well. Combine that with the late stages of the current recon mission and it's safe to say all hands are on deck. Any hiccups with track and 6z runs will pick up on it.

Think we are starting to get a pretty good consensus. Only thing I think might happen as time goes on is a slightly more north track as models trend towards a stronger storm.

I actually think the UKMET plot is pretty good (USTropics from Storm2k posted this):

Jeesh. That 00z GFS...

Keep in mind that accumulations happen over 3-6 days, but still... rivers/bayous, oh my.

The UKMet seems reasonable.

Looks like the center is moving up towards the convection per recon.. that may move the track further N and E as time goes on. That map above from USTropics posting the UKMET plots is certainly plausible. What a headache...

Agree Andrew. In fact the noaa mission may be showing that the center has reformed further n closer to the deep convection.

brooksgarner wrote:Jeesh. That 00z GFS...

Keep in mind that accumulations happen over 3-6 days, but still... rivers/bayous, oh my.

There is also a period where it shows ~8 inches in 6 hours. Obviously that will change but shows that fast accumulations will happen.