October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
914 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 912 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SAN
MARCOS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...PFLUGERVILLE...SAN MARCOS...LOCKHART...WIMBERLEY...AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INT AP...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...KYLE...BUDA...MANOR...WEST
LAKE HILLS...WOODCREEK...ROLLINGWOOD...MARTINDALE...UHLAND...
MUSTANG RIDGE...NIEDERWALD...BEAR CREEK...STAPLES AND CEDAR CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 FROM SAN MARCOS NORTHWARD TO
THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
948 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 946 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES. TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER WESTERN
BASTROP COUNTY...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGESTING THAT 3 TO 4
INCHES MAY FALL OVER PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA IN JUST 1 TO 2
HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ELGIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...SMITHVILLE...LEXINGTON...CEDAR
CREEK...CIRCLE D-KC ESTATE...WYLDWOOD...TANGLEWOOD...FEDOR...CIRCLE
D-KC ESTATES...CAMP SWIFT...DIME BOX...PAIGE...UPTON...MANHEIM...
BLUE...ALUM CREEK...LINCOLN AND HILLS PRAIRIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR FLOODING EVEN IN LOCATIONS NOT RECEIVING RAIN.
CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS CAN BECOME RAGING KILLER CURRENTS IN A
MATTER OF MINUTES...EVEN FROM DISTANT RAINFALL.

Tweet from Brad Dushkin @bdushkin : LCRA gauge on Onion Creek at 183 (SE Austin) reporting 6.01" in the last hour. That's not a typo. That's a disaster

[srainhoutx]

Surface analysis suggest the warm front may have slowed its progression N. Storms continue to back build to the SW of Hays and Travis County. Rainfall rates appear to be nearing 5 inches per hour under the heavier training storms.

[ticka1]

Will this severe weather/storms affect us here in the Houston area today or will it be tomorrow when we get this weather. According to radar it looks like storms are moving north and east - and not direct hit to houston area this morning/early afternoon.

[unome]

insane rain...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/with_replies

[srainhoutx]

Will this severe weather/storms affect us here in the Houston area today or will it be tomorrow when we get this weather. According to radar it looks like storms are moving north and east - and not direct hit to houston area this morning/early afternoon.

Later today and then a possibly stronger and secondary rainfall maxima for SE Texas tonight into at least midday Saturday as a surface low heads this way.

[Cromagnum]

18 wheeler on top of the roof of a Holiday Inn in Floresville.

[srainhoutx]

NWS San Antonio/Austin in coordination with the Weather Prediction Center are in the process of updating the potential QPF for Hays and Travis Counties for isolated 15 to 20 inches of very heavy rainfall. This is a particularly dangerous situation across the Balcones Escarpment.

[unome]

found the link below at https://twitter.com/KVUE/with_replies

http://hydromet.lcra.org/full.aspx

tutorial: http://hydromet.lcra.org/HydrometDemo/HydrometDemo.htm

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Extremely dangerous and life threatening flash flood event ongoing over C TX between Austin and San Antonio.

Rainfall this morning has averaged 8-10 inches over Hays County around Wimberley, TX. This “incredible” rainfall is leading to massive flash flooding along several rivers including: Blanco, San Marcos, Comal, and Guadelupe. 1-hr rainfall rates of 6.01 inches was recorded on the SE side of Austin by a LCRA gage. Devastating flooding is resulting.

Hays County indicates hundreds of high water rescues ongoing from both homes and vehicles and are requesting all available help from surround counties for assistance. Many cars have been swept away into flooding creeks with water going into homes in Wimberley. Flooding on the San Marcos River is flooding portions of San Marcos.

Caldwell County is ordering an emergency evacuation of all residents along the San Marcos River effective immediately.

[srainhoutx]

Look for a Flash Flood Watch for SE Texas probably beginning around midnight through all day tomorrow for portions SE Texas.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...

VALID 301532Z - 301630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS
WW523...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

DISCUSSION...NWD ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT HAS BEEN RETARDED SOMEWHAT
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER SCNTRL TX. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PRIMARY
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND MORE STABLE
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN HOUSTON METRO AREA...WWD
TO NEAR BAZ. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REGENERATE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD SLOW RETURN OF MT AIR
MASS INLAND ACROSS CNTRL TX. WARM SECTOR CONVECTION IS A BIT MORE
SHALLOW IN NATURE BUT ISOLATED ROBUST UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WILL ADVECT NNEWD INTO WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.

..DARROW.. 10/30/2015


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1032 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1031 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WYLDWOOD...OR 8 MILES EAST OF AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MANOR AROUND 1100 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE DEL
VALLE...WEBBERVILLE AND WELLS BRANCH.

[srainhoutx]

Updated 13Z HRRR continues to advertise a dangerous situation across the Hill Country. It appears the threat will shift more into SE Texas during the overnight hours as additional very strong to severe storms move out of Mexico between Laredo and Brownsville heading NE. Super cells look like a possibility as well. Stay weather aware tonight!

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
HISTORICAL FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
TRAINING CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND
TOLL ROAD 130 ALONG A LINE ORIENTED FROM SAN MARCOS AND TAYLOR.
FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
BEXAR...COMAL...HAYS...AND TRAVIS COUNTIES. ISOLATED STORM EVENT
TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
SAME AREAS AND THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
FAYETTE-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...
SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PLEASANTON...
FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE
1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON AND
WILSON.

* THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 20 INCH
AMOUNTS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE
AREAS AND RESULT IN RAPID RISES OF CREEKS AND STREAMS DUE TO
EXISTING SOILS THAT ARE NEARLY SATURATED.

* THIS IS A HISTORICAL FLASH FLOOD EVENT AND FLASH FLOOD
EMERGENCIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
BEXAR...COMAL...HAYS...AND TRAVIS COUNTIES. OTHER COUNTIES IN
THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY WILLIAMSON...BASTROP...AND LEE
COUNTIES...SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF EVOLVING FLASH FLOOD THREATS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR
THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...PLAN NOW FOR WHAT
YOU WILL DO IF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. STAY INFORMED AND BE
READY TO ACT IF YOU SEE FLOODING OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/30/15 1553Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1515Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPE ON EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN EVENT ONGOING NEAR
THE VIC OF AUS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HAVE BEEN COORDINATING WITH WPC AND TRYING
TO BEST STAGGER MESSAGES WITH FFGMPD TO ENSURE FLOW OF DATA FOR ONGOING
VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN THE VIC OF AUS. LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES MID
LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NE THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF WEAK
UPSTREAM INFLECTION NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO THAT MAY HELP TO
FURTHER ENHANCE DIFFLUENCE AND MESOSCALE AREA OF ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS WAS INDICATING CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM VIC OF GLS W TO S OF AUS AND THEN W TO E OF 6R6.
HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT TO BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING CONVECTION
TO FURTHER REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY. AREA VWPS WERE SHOWING THAT STRONG
ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL WIND RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUES
INTO THIS BOUNDARY WITH WEAK MESOLOW POSSIBLY W OF BAZ FURTHER ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INFLOW INTO REGION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE SOME VERY SLIGHT VEERING OF THE 85H UPSTREAM LLJ BUT THIS VEERING
MAY AID IN TAPPING INSTABILITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER S TX S
OF DRT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE THE INCREDIBLE 5.76"/HR RAINFALL
REPORT OUT OF AUS BUT TO OFFSET THAT THERE HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING ONGOING
TOWARDS HDO/SSF WITH DOWNSTREAM TRAINING. GIVEN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
SIMILARITIES TO MADDOX FRONTAL EVENT AND LITTLE SUGGESTION TO INDICATE
MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BELIEVE
THE VERY NOTABLE MESOSCALE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
BACKBUILDING/BACKWARD PROPAGATION TOWARDS THETA-E RIDGE AXIS E OF DRT.
PLEASE SEE EARLIER FFGMPD FOR MORE INFORMATION.

[srainhoutx]

Austin/Bergstrom International Airport now closed due to flooding of TRACON.

[srainhoutx]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1101 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

BASTROP TX-WILLIAMSON TX-TRAVIS TX-GUADALUPE TX-CALDWELL TX-HAYS TX-
1101 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN BASTROP...WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHEASTERN
GUADALUPE...WESTERN CALDWELL AND CENTRAL HAYS COUNTIES...

AT 1056 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAYS...TRAVIS...AND BASTROP COUNTIES. AT AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN
THE PAST HOUR. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...ROUND ROCK...CEDAR PARK...GEORGETOWN...PFLUGERVILLE...SAN
MARCOS...TAYLOR...LOCKHART...ELGIN...WIMBERLEY...GRANGER...
WINDEMERE...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...ANDERSON MILL...SERENADA...AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INT AP...KYLE...LEANDER...HUTTO AND LAKEWAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

[srainhoutx]

Flash Flood Watch being worked on for ALL of SE Texas beginning at 10:00 PM. Areas N and W could see FFW begin sooner if the Central Texas heavy rainfall progresses E toward SE Texas. This is a fluid and dynamic situation. Stay Tuned.

[srainhoutx]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1106 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TRAVIS TX-
1106 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ONION CREEK IN TRAVIS
COUNTY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY...

AT 1104 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN
ONION CREEK IN TRAVIS COUNTY. AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR. FLASH
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ONION CREEK IN TRAVIS COUNTY.
SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...ONION CREEK...
SHADY HOLLOW...SUNSET VALLEY...SAN LEANNA...CREEDMOOR...DEL VALLE...
PILOT KNOB AND MANCHACA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.