January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

Steve , any idea when flight delays will happen in Chicago tomorrow...I have a 1 departure but a 100 percent chance of snow......


Paul

If you're going into O'Hare, I'd expect delays, if not cancellations. Near blizzard conditions are expected with winds gusting near 40 mph with blowing snow. I would expect the same for Midway as well. Continental...errr United already has cancellation relaxation policy in affect for tomorrow travel to O'Hare.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* LOWERING CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING IFR ON THURSDAY.

* SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

* LIKELY SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR VIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
205 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012

...WINTER STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...

ILZ005-006-012>014-020-022-INZ001-002-120415-
/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0001.120112T1600Z-120113T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0001.120112T1500Z-120113T1500Z/
MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-WILL-LAKE IN-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...AURORA...
WHEATON...CHICAGO...OSWEGO...JOLIET...GARY...VALPARAISO
205 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* HAZARDS...IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING SNOW...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
IN OUTLYING AND OPEN AREAS. WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
DROP TO NEAR ZERO.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT
FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE THURSDAY...WITH TRAVEL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY BECOMING TREACHEROUS AND EVEN DANGEROUS IN OPEN AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

[srainhoutx]

lol...la la land 18Z GFS...

[wxman57]

Steve , any idea when flight delays will happen in Chicago tomorrow...I have a 1 departure but a 100 percent chance of snow......
Paul

Heavier snow begins after 12pm tomorrow in Chicago, so there will likely be delays in the afternoon, possibly long ones.

[sleetstorm]

All I have to say is we wanted a patten change in which we receive much needed rain to assist in mitigating this drought we are currently in. It looks like our prayers have been granted. Needless to say, this is different from last January, & November and December of 2010 in that the soil in this part of the state is far moister and there are no fires burning and raging on, or still smoldering. Are there any signs of this drought increasing and perhaps coming back with retribution?

[srainhoutx]

All I have to say is we wanted a patten change in which we receive much needed rain to assist in mitigating this drought we are currently in. It looks like our prayers have been granted. Needless to say, this is different from last January, & November and December of 2010 in that the soil in this part of the state is far moister and there are no fires burning and raging on, or still smoldering. Are there any signs of this drought increasing and perhaps coming back with retribution?

We are making strides in the right direction. Seasonal forecasts were for warm and dry. As of yet, that forecast has not verified for many parts of Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Paul, one heck of a storm for the Great Lakes Region and OH Valley shaping but. Expect bumpy rides with turbulence across the Central US.

[Paul]

Yeah I have been monitoring....I was hoping for a delay in the event but it looks like 9am is about right....there is a flight out at 10:00 I will try to change it....thanks for the update Steve and crew...

[srainhoutx]

Pre frontal trough has passed College Station at this hour. The front is a bit ahead of schedule as it crosses the Hill Country this evening. 18F at Texline in the NW Panhandle at this hour with gusty NW winds.

[Paul]

Balmy 40f here in Chicago...at a pub hoping not to get caught in snowmeggdon....

[srainhoutx]

It is looking like a hard Freeze is in the cards for areas N of I-10 tonight with better chance Over night Friday. More later.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Strong cold front has passed through the region overnight with very gusty winds.

Winds continue to blow this morning and will continue through the day. At 600am winds were gusting to 44 at Victoria at 36 at Galveston with most location averaging between 20-35mph. High pressure building down the plains into TX will keep winds strong through the late afternoon hours before weakening this evening. Impressive cold air advection will be in place today and temperatures will rise only into the upper 40’s for most locations. High level cirrus clouds out west are spilling into the region and this may limit heating by a few degrees.

Main concern is tonight/Friday AM and how cold will it get. A look at upstream observations show dewpoints in the mid teens over N TX spilling southward and expect dewpoints to fall into the upper teens/lower 20’s across the region by this afternoon. Ridge axis tonight should be just west of the region, so do not think winds will go completely calm except possibly toward sunrise over our western counties. Will also have some high level cirrus moving across. Guidance has lows in the mid to upper 20’s at most locations by Friday morning and this seems reasonable given the above mentioned factors. Typically the second night behind a cold front is the colder night as winds usually remain a little too strong the first night. Even so, expect at least 4-6 hours of sub-freezing temperatures at most locations and possibly 6-10 hours north of I-10. Could see a few of our typically cold sites (Conroe) drop at/or below 25 for a couple of hours…nearing hard freeze warning criteria. Given the duration below freezing at most locations, sensitive tropical plants should be protected along with pets.

Fire Weather:
Other concern today will be fire weather conditions given very strong surface winds, very dry air, and low afternoon RH. While many areas did see welcomed wetting rainfall on Monday, both our NW and SW counties were generally missed by the rains and only averaged less than .5 of an inch. With fine fuels (grasses) dominate or dead from recent freezes, these fuels will dry very quickly in strong winds and dry air. Red Flag Warning is in effect for Brazos, Washington, and Burleson counties for today and we will be very borderline over Jackson, Wharton, and Colorado counties. Should any fires get started, strong surface winds of 20-30mph will result in explosive forward spread.

Extended:
Increasingly zonal upper air pattern will begin to push the cold surface high eastward by late Saturday with another freeze likely on Saturday morning. SE winds will return by late Saturday with a gradual warming trend into early next week ahead of the next storm system. Moisture return looks fairly decent by Sunday afternoon and rain chances will be back into the forecast by Sunday night into Monday as the next system moves into the state from the west. Rainfall coverage and amounts look minimal with this system at this time. Temperatures will warm back to near 70 by Monday ahead of the next cold front early Tuesday morning.

Houston Marathon Forecast:
Looks to be decent running weather on Sunday morning with lows in the mid to upper 30’s at the start of the race warming to the mid 40’s by 1000am and lower 50’s by noon under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the ESE at 3-8mph, increasingly slightly toward noon.

[wxman57]

Balmy 40f here in Chicago...at a pub hoping not to get caught in snowmeggdon....

Wind direction in Chicago is not optimal for heavy snow - it's out of the NW. New model runs indicate only 1-3" of snow there this afternoon/evening. It really takes a NE wind to get really heavy snow there (off the lake). Definitely now "snowmageddon" today.

[srainhoutx]

Looking ahead to the medium range forecast, the only agreement is that the Pacific NW and N California are headed toward a very active period. The -WPO is allowing Pacific storms to take aim on that region that has been suffering from extremely dry condition since fall. The encouraging news is that badly need moisture returns to those areas as the Pacific 'fire hose' floods the region. Warmer temps are on tap for the Southern tier of the CONUS while a battle zone of air mass clashes sets up for the N Plains and intrusions into the Central Plains. A noisy sub tropical jet and Pacific zonal flow should keep our rain chances coming in the days ahead.

The longer range remains murky with little agreement via the PNA/NAO/EPO regimes and will need to be monitored. The late January time frame continues to advertise a potent storm crossing the S Plains with 'cold' air lurking to our N. My hunch is yet another severe weather event is possible during that time frame. Stay Tuned!

[Portastorm]

The recent mild temperatures here in Austin have made this Canadian front feel quite cold. With surface temps in the mid to upper 30s and a north wind 15 gusting to 35 ... we have wind chills in the mid 20s. It feels darn cold out there!

[wxman57]

The recent mild temperatures here in Austin have made this Canadian front feel quite cold. With surface temps in the mid to upper 30s and a north wind 15 gusting to 35 ... we have wind chills in the mid 20s. It feels darn cold out there!

Complain about the warm temps all winter and now you're complaining that it's too cold?

Perhaps we'll have a February like my favorite winter of all - 1986. Got up into the 90s that February...

[Portastorm]

The recent mild temperatures here in Austin have made this Canadian front feel quite cold. With surface temps in the mid to upper 30s and a north wind 15 gusting to 35 ... we have wind chills in the mid 20s. It feels darn cold out there!

Complain about the warm temps all winter and now you're complaining that it's too cold?

Perhaps we'll have a February like my favorite winter of all - 1986. Got up into the 90s that February...

No, no ... not complaining ... just observing, like a good meteorology enthusiast.

I'm sure you would love a redux of Feb 86. I wouldn't mind that happening, providing you give me several winter weather events earlier in the month.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The recent mild temperatures here in Austin have made this Canadian front feel quite cold. With surface temps in the mid to upper 30s and a north wind 15 gusting to 35 ... we have wind chills in the mid 20s. It feels darn cold out there!

Complain about the warm temps all winter and now you're complaining that it's too cold?

Perhaps we'll have a February like my favorite winter of all - 1986. Got up into the 90s that February...

I will take my frustrations out on you if we touch the 80s in the next 60 days.

La la land models again show arctic air funneling south across the CONUS. We'll see. They also show snowpack to our north.

[wxman57]

That's going to be a tough one - winter weather down here. But there is cold air building in western Canada, so there's at least a chance of more cold down here.

Meanwhile, my boss asked me the other day to "be serious" and tell him how long I'd need to go down to the Caribbean and visit clients down there who we rarely see. In the past, I'd said at least 2 months (Jan/Feb). So I've been checking out flights to San Juan, St. Croix, St. Lucia and Trinidad. Tough job, but somebody has to go down there to visit our clients.

[srainhoutx]

That's going to be a tough one - winter weather down here. But there is cold air building in western Canada, so there's at least a chance of more cold down here.

Meanwhile, my boss asked me the other day to "be serious" and tell him how long I'd need to go down to the Caribbean and visit clients down there who we rarely see. In the past, I'd said at least 2 months (Jan/Feb). So I've been checking out flights to San Juan, St. Croix, St. Lucia and Trinidad. Tough job, but somebody has to go down there to visit our clients.

I hope you don't 'suffer' too much. Last summer when Bill Read and I chatted, he said those trips down to the Carribean in the P-3 Orion were the toughest part of his job at the NHC.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Was supposed to be here this week...

http://www.ktuu.com/news/southcentral-a ... ?track=rss

Unfortunately, I couldn't get into town.