December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z NAM has trend a bit 'colder'. Each run of that model tends to lower temps as the day has progressed. While the colder NAM solution was somewhat discounted as well as the UKMET, it is interesting to note that guidance may be under estimating the strength of the upper low and that was experienced in El Paso where Winter Weather Ad ivories had to be increase to Winter Storm Warnings. Each run of the shorter range Meso models appear to be slowing the progression E with the upper low.

For Coastal and SE TX a chilly damp Holiday Weekend is on tap. Temps should hold rather steady and struggle to reach the 50's and perhaps even cooler with daytime temps in the mid 40's. Over running showers and light rain look to begin late tomorrow and continue into Christmas Day. If the trend of 'colder and slower' continues, we not see things clear out until Monday. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Dallas/Ft Worth issues Special Weather Statement for possible accumulating snow mainly W of US 287, but includes their entire CWA in the statement.

[srainhoutx]

Hot off the presses...afternoon e-mail form Jeff:

Wet and cold holiday weekend in store for the region. For this year, unlike in 2004, SE TX will see no snow this Christmas, but it will feel very much like winter!

Upper level storm system dropping southward toward N MX this afternoon with downstream coastal trough starting to develop over the lower TX coast. While at the surface, cold air is filtering southward across the state creating a favorable pattern for a white Christmas over W TX and widespread rains over the rest of the state.

Clouds will thicken and lower tonight into early Saturday with best forcing from the developing coastal low coming to bear across the region Saturday PM/evening into Sunday morning. Expect widespread light rain and drizzle to develop late Saturday morning and become more frequent and heavy by Saturday evening. Heavy rainfall will be possible along with a few elevated thunderstorms especially south of US 59. Strong sub-tropical jet axis over the coastal region will support some decent rainfall amounts. Slower system is favored for the ejection of the upper trough out of MX and this will keep at least some rain chances going into Sunday AM until about the noonish hour. After that rains should be ending from SW to NE, but clouds will linger in Monday or until the upper storm shears across TX. Rainfall amounts look to average .5-1.0 inch through the weekend with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible especially near the coast.

Due to the clouds and rainfall and gusty NE winds on the north side of the NW Gulf surface low feature, temperatures will be cold all day Saturday with highs likely in the 40’s making for a raw day. Sunday will feature lows in the upper 30’s and highs near 50. Temperatures will slowly warm into next week as a more zonal and less amplified upper air pattern develops over North America and a more typical La Nina result begins to surface.

[srainhoutx]

Lubbock issues Winter Weather Advisories for areas W and S of Lubbock.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
352 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2011

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-240600-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...
HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...
ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
352 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2011

..SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY
AND CONCHO VALLEY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
SONORA...TO EDEN...TO BROWNWOOD. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ROUGHLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
OZONA...TO SAN ANGELO...TO SWEETWATER. ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED AT TIMES WITH SNOW.

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN JUST A MINOR CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW COULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. RESIDENTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING
WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
359 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-240400-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
359 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2011

...RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY...

...LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS THIS
CHRISTMAS WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DUSTING
IN THE PANDALE AREA.

THE RAINS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE
RAIN JUST BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE HILL COUNTRY CHRISTMAS EVE. AGAIN...NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR ONE TENTH INCH OUT WEST UP TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
EAST.

THOSE WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL INTO WESTERN TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM.

[srainhoutx]

A snowy night in Odessa...

[JackCruz]

A snowy night in Odessa...

Looks fun...minus driving in it. Imagine if that was here

[srainhoutx]

San Angelo issues Winter Weather Advisory for areas mainly N and W of a Abilene, San Angelo, Senora line or US 67 for 1-3 inches of snow.

[srainhoutx]

HGX mentioning the slower progression of the 00Z guidance (NAM/GFS) and now suggesting rains will linger throughout Christmas Day. They will await night shift review of all guidance before making any further changes.

[srainhoutx]

Some major changes via the overnight guidance concerning the long Holiday Weekend. The upper low currently spinning near El Paso is expect to crawl E and meander throughout the weekend. A surface low should form along the Lower Texas Coast and slowly travel NE bringing over running rains to the tune of. 3/4 to 1.5 inches, with isolated totals of 2-3 inches possible mainly closer to the coast. This wet pattern should linger into Monday with temps struggling to move much above where they are now, in the upper 40's to low 50's, for today.

Rain chances increase overnight as the U/L very slowly moves into W TX and the coastal low/trough slowly moves toward the Middle Texas Coast. By Christmas morning the coastal low should still be SW of the area with abundant lift and over running rain chances throughout the day. The upper low and coastal disturbance should be moving E of the area by mid day Monday. This appears to be the end of the Western Cut Off low scenario that has plagued us since Thanksgiving and a more typical La Nina pattern should return with dry conditions as we end the year 2011.

[ticka1]

Maybe after a brief regression of the Western Cut-off Low and return of La Nina - the western cut-off low will return. It has been a nice change here in SE Texas. I know it was noted on the models as a weather pattern change - all we have to do is keep praying that it changes again from la nina to western cut-off low maybe in January or later.

MERRY CHRISTMAS all my WEATHER FRIENDS here at KHOU!

[biggerbyte]

That is absolutely correct, Ticka. No one knows what it is going to do, long range. Today is just another example. Compare it to just a few days ago, even as few as two or three. Today we now sit at a 100% chance of rain, with all of the big changes that srain mentioned for our area for the holiday weekend.

Folks, look for another event where most everyone will get wet. There should be no problem in the rain total department by the time Monday night gets here. Chilly is in order as well. That forecast is brought to you by the good folks at the reality weather team. LOL

Merry Christmas, everyone.

[srainhoutx]

Good Morning Odessa...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z WRF/NMM is in and that model suggests a rather interesting solution for Late Christmas evening into Monday. The fly in the ointment via guidance is just how fast and where does the upper low SW of El Paso begin its slow trek ENE. WV imagery is showing a secondary upper air/short wave diving S along the S CA Coast this morning near San Diego. The short wave energy should be the kicker that will provide for the upper low in Old Mexico to begin to slowly crawl E. The WRF/NMM is sniffing out these features and suggests a cold pocket (850/700mb) with instability just N and W of Houston and SE TX on Monday as the precip begins to end. We'll watch the trends and see what transpires, but it is interesting to note none the less....

[Katdaddy]

I am hoping to break 2" with the upcoming rain event. This pattern has been helpful regarding the drought and I hate to see it change to the more typical La Nina pattern even though I like the warm sunny weather.

[srainhoutx]

Abilene reporting snow now. San Angelo a wintry mix.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS paints an interesting picture. That model suggests a slow easterly track of the upper low across Texas and brings that U/L near Temple/Waco late Monday...

[srainhoutx]

Breckenridge, W of the Metroplex reporting light snow as of this hour.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1004 AM CST SAT DEC 24 2011

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT STEPHENS COUNTY AIRPORT DURING THE
PAST HOUR WHILE AN EARLIER REPORT FROM RANGER FD IN EASTLAND
COUNTY INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. BOTH LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT BAND OF PRECIPITATION RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT
ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTH INTO YOUNG COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE RIGHT
AT THE FREEZING MARK. STILL EXPECT A COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT RAIN WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO COMANCHE LINE TODAY. 12Z NAM AND PREVIOUS GFS
ENSEMBLES DO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO AN INCH
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT OVER YOUNG-STEPHENS-EASTLAND COUNTIES SO
CANNOT RULE THAT OUT. AT THIS TIME STILL DO NOT BELIEVE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REPORTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FURTHER EAST...RAIN IS ON THE INCREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN-SNOW COMBINATION SHOULD
EXPAND SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...ARE EXPECTED THIS
FAR EAST.