February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[skidog38]

has it ever snowed more than 2 days in row in houston?

is this something that u are seeing may happen or is this just a question ? j/w

Both--

[ronyan]

00z GFS has started...out to 48 hrs so far.

[wxman666]

00z GFS has started...out to 48 hrs so far.

Can't wait!

[Andrew]

Y'all are going to like the GFS:

[wxman666]

Y'all are going to like the GFS:

Is that 0 degree line off the coast?

[jabcwb2]

Y'all are going to like the GFS:

Is that 0 degree line off the coast?

....and no precipitaion inland around Houston???

[Andrew]

Y'all are going to like the GFS:

Is that 0 degree line off the coast?

....and no precipitaion inland around Houston???

There is some close to the shore along with a possible low building up north that the GFS is trying to pick up on.

[ronyan]

00z CMC has a 1061 mb high coming into Montana.

[wxman666]

So does this trend start Tuesday or Wednesday?

[sleetstorm]

I am praying that southeast Texas receives an abundance of sleet/snow, an abundance in a good way, with adequate or a little more than adequate cold temperatures to support it.

[Andrew]

If this aint close to some sort of wintry percip idk what is.

[Baseballdude2915]

With the GFS finally showing some decent cold, and the CMC still bringing the frigid air down, this is getting pretty interesting.
Not to mention both of them show light precip pretty darn close when all the "players" align next thursday. Who knows.

If the Euro run here in a bit is anything to talk about, we might need a title change.

Wow, 64 pages for our February topic and its January 28th
Dan is looking down with a smile.

[wxman666]

SPC Update: SLIGHT Risk of Severe Wx for much of Southeast TX Saturday eve. Damaging winds, large hail the main threats....isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html



...S-CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX...

WRN GULF BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING AND LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS SRN TX SATURDAY. SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING SRN HIGH PLAINS LEE LOW
AND TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NWD WITH DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AS FAR
NORTH AS NERN TX SATURDAY NIGHT. SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ADVECT EML
AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTRIBUTING TO A CAP MUCH OF THE DAY. COMBINATION OF DIABATIC
WARMING...A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. PRESENCE OF A CAP AND
WEAK FORCING SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AS DEEPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT MOVES OVER THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR. STORMS DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNSET WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WITH -17C TO -20C AT 500 MB...STEEP LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

[TexasBreeze]

SPC Update: SLIGHT Risk of Severe Wx for much of Southeast TX Saturday eve. Damaging winds, large hail the main threats....isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

I don't know about there being too much severe weather. The air is really stable and it would have to become unstable really fast. Clouds will roll in too. Anything's possible though! It's been awhile since a bonifide severe weather outbreak around here recently. Hail looks to be the biggest threat.

[wxman666]

SPC Update: SLIGHT Risk of Severe Wx for much of Southeast TX Saturday eve. Damaging winds, large hail the main threats....isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

I don't know about there being too much severe weather. The air is really stable and it would have to become unstable really fast. Clouds will roll in too. Anything's possible though! It's been awhile since a bonifide severe weather outbreak around here recently.

SPC believes destabilization will occur towards late afternoon and early evening, eroding the cap...thereby producing elevated tstms. We should reach about 1000 j/kg by night fall, with support for rotating updrafts overnight, according to SPC. I'm guessing they had grounds for upgrading to slight risk for such a large area...which didn't seem to occur with the past few fronts...even though there was isolated severe.

[TexasBreeze]

Well anywho, severe or not, it will be nice to see t-storms rumbling around. It's always great watching them outside and tracking them on radar! Makes me happy!

[wxman666]

Well anywho, severe or not, it will be nice to see t-storms rumbling around. It's always great watching them outside and tracking them on radar! Makes me happy!

Same here! I'm in need of some good storm action myself, lol!

[TexasBreeze]

I'm also anxiously awaiting what next weeks weather holds in store for us regarding cold and precip?
It seems like in the past we would see multiple squall lines and outbreaks every year. Now I can't even remember the last widespread outbreak with lots of wind and hail and tor reports. Ptarmigan? Summertime seems to have more at lest isolated reports now.

[Baseballdude2915]

Euro came in about the same as last run temperature wise from what I can read. Nothing significantly different.

[wxman666]

I'm also anxiously awaiting what next weeks weather holds in store for us regarding cold and precip?
It seems like in the past we would see multiple squall lines and outbreaks every year. Now I can't even remember the last widespread outbreak with lots of wind and hail and tor reports. Ptarmigan? Summertime seems to have more at lest isolated reports now.

Ditto. The one that always sticks in my mind is November 17th, 2003. That was an epic day!