May 2024

[DoctorMu]

I really dont see any sort of big heat ridge setup in the guidance anytime soon or even perhaps for the next few weeks, GFS continues to see a couple of cold fronts sliding through over the next few weeks! We shall see

I'll believe it when I see it. I feel like we are charging forward to another scorching, dry summer setup. I hope I am wrong.

Sure, we’ll have some hot and dry periods, but this summer should be much closer to average in terms of temperatures and precipitation. Possibly even above average for precip.

More rain due to tropical systems. Hopeful more lemonade than CAT3+ storms...

I also see temps as more normal as well compared with last summer's anomaly. It's still going to suck. Just not as much.

[DoctorMu]

Some Juicy cells in action, but seems to be a Hwy 70 event. We have clouds - maybe a brief shower later on.

This has to be the cloudiest Spring that I can remember in CLL.

[Cpv17]

Some Juicy cells in action, but seems to be a Hwy 70 event. We have clouds - maybe a brief shower later on.

This has to be the cloudiest Spring that I can remember in CLL.

I had a DP of 78° this morning. Absolutely terrible

[captainbarbossa19]

I really dont see any sort of big heat ridge setup in the guidance anytime soon or even perhaps for the next few weeks, GFS continues to see a couple of cold fronts sliding through over the next few weeks! We shall see

I'll believe it when I see it. I feel like we are charging forward to another scorching, dry summer setup. I hope I am wrong.

Sure, we’ll have some hot and dry periods, but this summer should be much closer to average in terms of temperatures and precipitation. Possibly even above average for precip.

I agree. The synoptic setup this summer is not looking like anything close to last summer. This month for instance, parts of SE Texas have received 10 inches or more of rain in some areas. Compare that to last May when many areas received an inch or less. Flow is very zonal heading into June which is quite a contrast compared to last year at this time. Dry periods will likely still occur, but I highly doubt we are going to be looking at extended dry periods of one month or longer. It is very rare to have more than 2 years of nearly the same summer weather pattern in terms of the anomalous ridging we saw the past 2 summers.

[don]

Still a ways out so things can change,but the stormy pattern looks to return locally in SE Texas sometime next week.

[tireman4]

849
FXUS64 KHGX 232024
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Overnight MCS and its associated development (via daytime heating
along/near the lingering outflow boundaries) just north of the CWA
could sneak into portions of the Brazos Valley through this even-
ing. But the main issue(s) with this activity has been the fairly
widespread blow-off cloud cover this afternoon across this region.
Per models, we could see a repeat of sorts for tomorrow afternoon
given the proximity of the dryline over Central TX and additional
disturbances embedded in the zonal mid/upper level flow. While the
"best" chances are still going to be somewhat low (POPs 20%-30%),
they should also be for mainly our NW/W counties for the late af-
ternoon/early evening hours tomorrow.

Otherwise, for the rest of SE TX, no major changes are expected as
the warm/humid summer weather persists...fueled by the moderate to
occasionally strong S/SE winds. Rain chances remain limited as the
cap persists. Lows tonight and tomorrow night should be in the mid
to upper 70s. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 90s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The long holiday weekend is looking quite hot thanks to the
continued presence of the mid/upper subtropical ridge over Mexico
and a veering wind profile that will support WAA in the lower
levels. Inland afternoon high temperatures are expected to range
from the low/mid 90s Saturday, mid 90s on Sunday, an mid/upper 90s
on Monday. With dew points in the 70s, expect heat index values to
be ~10 degrees hotter than the actual temperatures. Much of the
region is forecast to approach Heat Advisory criteria by Sunday,
then reach advisory criteria on Monday. Experimental HeatRisk
guidance shows widespread High Risk (Level 3 of 4) on Saturday and
Sunday, with areas of Extreme Risk (Level 4 of 4) on Monday.
Needless to say, the chance of needing heat advisories is
increasing for the Sunday-Monday time frame. Afternoon
temperatures at the immediate coast will generally be in the upper
80s to near 90 with heat index values 98-102F. So don`t expect
THAT much heat relief at the coast. In addition, the rip current
risk will be relatively high at the beaches this weekend.
Practicing heat safety will be must over the holiday weekend. If
at the beach, swim near a life guard and away from piers and
jetties. If caught in a rip current, do not panic and swim
parallel to shore. Regarding heat, drink plenty of fluids, wear
light clothing, take frequent breaks (preferable inside) if
working/playing outside, and NEVER leave children and pets in
vehicles.

A weak front may approach from the north Monday night into Tuesday
and bring us a shot of showers/thunderstorms. For now, PoPs remain
low. But some of the global guidance suggests that may need to
increase those PoPs in future updates. Forecast afternoon temps
drop to the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday/Wednesday with lower
humidity.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

There`s quite a bit of blow-off cloud cover from the storms just to
the north of the CWA continuing to move over parts of our area this
afternoon. Otherwise, not a lot of changes with the ongoing persist-
ence forecast of mostly MVFR (some IFR) ceilings overnight/into the
mid morning...to mostly VFR during the afternoon/evening hours with
this package. Models are hinting at another round of storms for the
NW/W portions of the CWA for late tomorrow afternoon, but not confi-
dent enough to include the mention of precipitation at this time.
41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong southeast winds will continue
through the weekend. Winds and seas are likely to reach Small
Craft criteria at times. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect into
this evening due to 20 to 25 knot winds and seas up to 8 feet.
These conditions might improve somewhat tonight into tomorrow
morning. However, computer model guidance has generally been under
estimating winds and seas offshore today. Therefore, we cannot
rule out having to extend the Small Craft Advisory further into
the overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers.
The Trinity River at Liberty will remain in major flood stage until
further notice. The Trinity River at Riverside is forecast to
continue on a downward trend from moderate flood stage into minor
flood stage early Thursday morning. Last up for the Trinity River is
Moss Bluff which remains in moderate flood stage and is expected to
continue on its steady recession through the end of the week.

Along the Brazos River, there are three gauges currently in minor
flood stage: Richmond, Rosharon, and Sugar Land. Richmond and Sugar
Land have already reached their crests and are forecast to gradually
trend downward...and Richmond is forecast to drop out of minor flood
stage on Thursday morning. Rosharon on the other hand is still
rising and is forecast to crest just below moderate flood stage on
Thursday. As always, we will continue to monitor observations
and trends.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 94 75 94 / 20 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 77 94 77 94 / 10 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 85 79 86 / 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-
370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Self

[DoctorMu]

Another Day, Another tornado moving through Temple and Marlin. The cell is not headed toward CLL and SETX though.

[DoctorMu]

CMC and GFS keep the ridge to our south through the first week in June. AI-Euro jailbreaks the ridge after June 4th to the upper plains.

Either way, be means a more active weather patter for us next week and into early June. AI Euro is generous with the rain. I'm sensing a tropical showers pattern rather than a tropical cycloneneogenesis type.

After a horrible summer and early fall, the late Fall pattern through now has been more like the 1990s, which would mean hot, but not blistering and occasional rain this summer. We'll see.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m liking what I’m seeing for June.

I’ll say this… it is abundantly more pleasant in Weimar than Magnolia this time of year. Those Germans and Czechs knew where to establish farms and the wind is blowing 15-20 on a warm night and makes it much more tolerable for me to sit outside and not sweat through my clothes.

All star baseball practice tonight was enjoyable and not swamp *** weather.

[Ptarmigan]

CMC and GFS keep the ridge to our south through the first week in June. AI-Euro jailbreaks the ridge after June 4th to the upper plains.

Either way, be means a more active weather patter for us next week and into early June. AI Euro is generous with the rain. I'm sensing a tropical showers pattern rather than a tropical cycloneneogenesis type.

After a horrible summer and early fall, the late Fall pattern through now has been more like the 1990s, which would mean hot, but not blistering and occasional rain this summer. We'll see.

I remember 1990s summer did get hot, like in 1993, 1998, and 1999. The 1990s had quite a few storms. Early 1990s was quite wet, especially from 1991 to 1994.

[Ptarmigan]

I really dont see any sort of big heat ridge setup in the guidance anytime soon or even perhaps for the next few weeks, GFS continues to see a couple of cold fronts sliding through over the next few weeks! We shall see

I'll believe it when I see it. I feel like we are charging forward to another scorching, dry summer setup. I hope I am wrong.

Sure, we’ll have some hot and dry periods, but this summer should be much closer to average in terms of temperatures and precipitation. Possibly even above average for precip.

I do not see a repeat of last year. One thing is we are wetter.

[DoctorMu]

CMC and GFS keep the ridge to our south through the first week in June. AI-Euro jailbreaks the ridge after June 4th to the upper plains.

Either way, be means a more active weather patter for us next week and into early June. AI Euro is generous with the rain. I'm sensing a tropical showers pattern rather than a tropical cycloneneogenesis type.

After a horrible summer and early fall, the late Fall pattern through now has been more like the 1990s, which would mean hot, but not blistering and occasional rain this summer. We'll see.

I remember 1990s summer did get hot, like in 1993, 1998, and 1999. The 1990s had quite a few storms. Early 1990s was quite wet, especially from 1991 to 1994.

Yeah, I really meant before the 1998 El Nino anomaly (very hot year before last year blew it away) that also turned SETX into a blast furnace. Early June in CLL was 100°F+ and it did not let up from there!

Yes - early to mid 90s were quite wet. CLL seemed muddy much of the time while TAMU was in session.

[DoctorMu]

I’m liking what I’m seeing for June.

I’ll say this… it is abundantly more pleasant in Weimar than Magnolia this time of year. Those Germans and Czechs knew where to establish farms and the wind is blowing 15-20 on a warm night and makes it much more tolerable for me to sit outside and not sweat through my clothes.

All star baseball practice tonight was enjoyable and not swamp *** weather.

We have the wind but Weimar has fewer trees to block it. It was a pleasant evening for mowing.

[tireman4]

097
FXUS64 KHGX 241001
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
501 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather exists across NW/W
counties today. A dryline will move into Central Texas during the
day today, and with embedded disturbances in the mid-upper level
flow, storms that form in Central TX could make their way into the
aforementioned area later this afternoon into tonight. Best chances
for storms remain on the lower end (~20%), and will largely depend
on if the storms can maintain longevity and overcome the cap. With
CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, shear values around 50 kts, storms that
make it into the area and overcome the cap would be capable of
producing damaging winds and large hail.

Aside from the storm potential, the main headline for today
continues to be the heat risk across SE Texas. Highs for today will
be in the 90s inland and in the mid to upper 80s along the coast.
Persistent onshore flow will continue to funnel moisture into the
area. The combination of heat and humidity will result in heat index
values of 100-107F across much of SE Texas. Please exercise heat
safety by staying hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the
hottest part of the day, and look before you lock! Remember that if
the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, it is too hot for
your pets` paws.

Lows for tonight will be in the 70s area wide with muggy conditions.

Saturday will feature another day of hot and humid conditions with
highs in the low to mid 90s inland and dew point values in the mid
to upper 70s. Heat index values for Saturday will once be in the
triple digits area wide (100-108F).

In addition to the heat risk, coastal hazards will also exist today
and into the weekend, including a high risk for rip currents,
above normal water levels, and above normal surf. If at the
beach, swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties and
piers. In addition, don`t swim at the eastern or western tips of
Galveston Island. Tidal currents and rip currents are always
dangerous there. If caught in a rip current, do not panic and swim
parallel to the shore.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Slightly higher heights and warmer H85 temps will bring the
hottest temps we should see in the 7 day period Sunday and
Monday. Looking for highs in the mid 90s with overnight lows only
in the 77-82F range for most locations. Despite southerly winds
in the 10-20mph range, moist ground and elevated dewpoints will
keep things plenty uncomfortable this holiday weekend. Heat index
values will probably top out in the 105-110F range. Chances of
shra/tstms are quite slim, but not zero for parts of the Brazos
Valley & Piney Woods both days (with Monday late afternoon/evening
possibly being the slightly better shot of the two).

Weak frontal boundary slides southward and somewhat close to the
region Monday night & Tues, but high pressure behind this boundary
generally becomes positioned just to our east. What does this
mean? We`ll probably see some recycled "drier" air backdoor into
parts of the region and temps trending back a little closer to
seasonable norms. But with decent moisture still available west of
the surface ridging, we`d anticipate some isolated to scattered
tsra to return to the forecast each day for the remainder of the
work week. Most should be diurnally driven, but we`ll also need to
keep tabs in the nwly flow aloft for embedded disturbances that
could provide a more organized trigger from time-to-time. Included
somewhat low precip chances in the grids, but above NBM suggestions.
Suspect POPs will need to be raised at times for some locations
as time advances and we can better identify these things and
trends become better established. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Low clouds have filled in the area resulting in MVFR CIGs across
all TAF sites (with exception of UTS). Expect MVFR CIGs to persist
through late morning, becoming VFR by the afternoon. Winds will be
out of the S to SE with gusts of 20 kts at times this afternoon.
Winds will become light out of the SE this evening. MVFR CIGs will
return to the area during the overnight hours Friday into Saturday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Moderate onshore flow will prevail through the Memorial Day
weekend and well into next week. Seas will remain somewhat
elevated...generally ranging between 4-6ft. Will maintain caution
flags for all the waters today...and suspect it`ll need to be
extended for intermittent periods through Monday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 95 76 / 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 77 94 77 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 79 86 79 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47

[jasons2k]

Flew-in yesterday from Orlando.
You could see the cap out the window, along with the supercells to the north.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m liking what I’m seeing for June.

I’ll say this… it is abundantly more pleasant in Weimar than Magnolia this time of year. Those Germans and Czechs knew where to establish farms and the wind is blowing 15-20 on a warm night and makes it much more tolerable for me to sit outside and not sweat through my clothes.

All star baseball practice tonight was enjoyable and not swamp *** weather.

We have the wind but Weimar has fewer trees to block it. It was a pleasant evening for mowing.

College Station does have wind. Magnolia not nearly as much and humidity is worse.

While I still hate Summer with a 10000 fiery passions, it is much much more tolerable in Weimar, to the point that I can work outside for hours on a Summer day.

[Cpv17]

Looks like the ridge over Mexico might be too close to give us much rain over the next week or two. Guess we’ll see what that ridge does, but that’s the reason why south of I-10 hasn’t had that much rain overall.

[Pas_Bon]

Almost forgot…..

I took this video of these severe storms from 38,000 feet on my flight out of Hobby late May 9 evening. The video is not sped up. That lightning was real-time. Beautiful/eery sight.



https://streamable.com/n7ado9

[DoctorMu]

No real changes until Memorial Day in CLL, then a *chance* of rain (20-30%) sneaks into the forecast with the ridge to the south and NW flow. Heat index close to 100°, but the southerly breeze continues. DPs have been lowest in the late afternoons. Pulling for more clouds.

My daughter use to wonder why I wanted clouds and rain all summer...

[jasons2k]

Looks like the ridge over Mexico might be too close to give us much rain over the next week or two. Guess we’ll see what that ridge does, but that’s the reason why south of I-10 hasn’t had that much rain overall.

It’s becoming more of an issue. I’m honestly surprised it hasn’t been more of an issue so far.

As the regulars know, my spring forecast busted. I thought persistent capping coming out of Mexico was going to put the brakes on our precipitation chances much earlier in the season.

It’s something to keep watching. Mexico has had its hottest May ever and has been experiencing an intense heat wave.