Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:17 am
The Latest GFS is trending wetter over the next 10-12 days, models are in agreement that the high will break up next week, leasing to daily rain chances, id say about 30-40% right now
Correct. The 12zGFS also continues this juicer trend. You can see the Gulf is finally starting to wake up with deeper moisture columns all over, particularly the best BoC source region for Texas (via 700-300mb humidity).
Chances begin as early as this Friday, and gradually build up through the next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Southwesterly winds will gradually shift over to southeasterly by
the afternoon hours as the sea breeze moves inland with sustained
winds around 10-15 knots. Winds become light and variable again
overnight. With a persistent synoptic pattern, MVFR ceilings for
CXO and northward are likely again on early Friday morning along
with reduced visibility at LBX. Any low ceilings/visibility will
lift by 15Z with VFR conditions returning for the remainder of the
day. Winds start out south-southwesterly then become southerly
with the sea breeze in the afternoon. High resolution model
guidance indicates that some afternoon SHRA/TSRA is possible
mainly east of the I-45 corridor.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:17 am
The Latest GFS is trending wetter over the next 10-12 days, models are in agreement that the high will break up next week, leasing to daily rain chances, id say about 30-40% right now
Correct. The 12zGFS also continues this juicer trend. You can see the Gulf is finally starting to wake up with deeper moisture columns all over, particularly the best BoC source region for Texas (via 700-300mb humidity).
Chances begin as early as this Friday, and gradually build up through the next week.
Yeah and this pattern also is going to open up the Gulf. The Euro shows the ridge splitting with one half over the Pacific NW and the other near Bermuda and the east coast. This new pattern spells trouble for us later if anything gets in the western Caribbean.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 2:22 pm
The 12z Euro towards the end of its run now shows a weak tropical wave in the GOM headed towards Texas fwiw
This is one of the best Euro runs I have seen in a while. The ridge split is definitely going to help us out.
Multiple models (ICON, GFS, Euro) bring a cold front near the Red River near the end of July. We might get lucky with an increase in showers. That appears to break up the ridge-industrial complex for a little while. We'll see!
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Conditions this morning are similar to recent mornings. Generally
VFR conditions prevail. But areas of clouds resulting in periods
of MVFR conditions are occurring across the region. These areas of
MVFR should clear out by 14-15Z. By the afternoon, there may be
widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Confidence is
low regarding whether or not any thunderstorm will occur over a
specific terminal. The best chance of a shower or storm will be
along and east of I-45. Therefore, we continue to show VCSH in our
HOU, IAH, CXO, and UTS TAFs for this afternoon. VCSH was chosen
over VCTS due to the aforementioned uncertainty.
Self
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 335 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
For those of you yearning for some rain, today could very well be
the day you receive your wish! But I want to emphasize the word
"could" since we are not expecting anything widespread. The
mid/upper level ridge that has brought the perpetual dry and hot
weather will recede further today. The receding ridge coupled with
rising PW values and an incoming inverted trough from the Gulf will
likely bring more clouds and an increased chance of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. When taking a gander at the
CAMs, there appears to be little agreement regarding PoPs. That
being said, the ARW appears to have a pretty good initialization and
it just so happens to be the model showing the best chance of rain.
Since these convective situations tend to yield a tricky forecast, I
didn`t want to lean too heavily in the ARW`s direction. Plus, the
ARW is indicating widely scattered tstorms, nothing widespread. But
I did increase PoPs for the I-45 counties points east. Any shower
and thunderstorm activity will be scattered. Not every neighborhood
will receive rain and there is some model data suggesting little to
no rainfall in the CWA. But at least there is hope!
Regarding temperatures, I have good news and bad news. The good news
is that temps and HI values are likely to be lower. No heat advisory
has been issued today. Hooray! But like I said, there is also bad
news. Temps will still be quite hot. Expected widespread mid/upper
90s. Far inland locations could easily reach 100. Coastal areas are
forecast to be in the low to mid 90s. Dew points should be high
enough to bring HI values over 100 to the entire CWA. So will it be
cooler? Yes. But will it still be hot enough to exercise heat
safety precautions? Unfortunately also yes. But at least it won`t be
as hot as recent days.
As we head into the weekend, the persistent ridge over the southwest
will build back to the east once again. So PoPs are likely to
decrease over the weekend. There will still be a risk of a seabreeze
shower/storm on Saturday. Stronger southeasterly flow could enhance
the seabreeze on Saturday bringing higher dewpoints. So HI values
will need to be monitored for heat advisory criteria. Currently, our
HI grids keep the values below advisory levels. Self
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Nothing earth-shattering to pass along that hasn`t already been
regurgitated for the past several days. Upper ridge expands/moves
eastward toward the MS Valley and southeast coast going into
mid-late week. Slight chances of seabreeze induced precip can`t be
ruled out closer to the coast and also in association with any mid
level disturbances tracking wwd under the ridge (maybe Tue-Wed &
Fri). But in general, heat will remain the primary concern with
highs 97-102 inland and 92-95 at the beaches. Heat indices will
border near Heat Advisory criteria (108F) at times depending on
the daily dewpoint profile. 47
.MARINE...
Typical summertime regime is anticipated...mainly S-SE winds
10-15kt and seas 2-4ft thru the period. 47
For the first time this week there are no heat related warnings or advisories for the area.
Upper level ridge of high pressure currently located over the SW US will back westward slightly today and weaken on the eastern flank. This will allow a trough over the southern US to move westward a bit. Local radars over LA this morning show a complex of thunderstorms east of the central LA area moving westward and convection allowing models (CAMs) are in general agreement that this complex and its associated outflow boundary will continue westward toward the Sabine River today and then into east Texas this afternoon and toward the I-45 corridor by mid to late afternoon. With the subsidence from the ridge weakening over the area and moisture increasing from the east, expect the complex of storms or new storms to form along the leading westward moving outflow boundary. Best chances of rainfall will be east of I-45, although CAMs are suggesting areas of northern Harris, Liberty, San Jacinto, Walker, and Montgomery Counties may see the best chances this afternoon. Rainfall will be scattered and mainly focused east of I-45, so while there is about a 30% chance this afternoon, not everyone will see rain.
Ridge starts to shift back eastward this weekend, but still think there will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday with the seabreeze front and continued decent moisture levels before subsidence overruns the region again by Sunday. Ridge looks to never fully gain a foot hold over SE TX compared to the recent weeks and is based more north of the area so temperatures into next week look more like the mid to upper 90’s with 100’s over the Brazos Valley instead of the widespread 100’s of late. Additionally with the ridge axis just enough to the north this will open the door for westward moving tropical waves to move into the TX coast. The first should arrive around Tue/Wed with increased rain chances followed by another around next Friday. This slight pattern shift may be able to bring some drought and heat relief to the region.
Fire Weather:
Afternoon humidity values have not been mixing out as much as earlier this week and winds have returned to a more typical summer pattern of mainly light southerly and this has helped to reduce the critical fire weather concerns from earlier in the week. Fuel loads are extremely dry through the entire column and will remain dry until widespread wetting rains occur.
There is some concern this afternoon that storms in the are could producing lightning starts and may not produce rainfall over any new starts. Additionally, outflow winds of 40-50mph could quickly fan any new starts. Generally these would be short lived conditions, but similar activity and conditions in N TX earlier this week produced several wildfires due to lightning followed by little or no rainfall at the ignition site.
Ridging over the Pacific NW is going to keep our temps from doing anything too crazy. I actually see a lot of mid 90’s for southeast TX next week which is much better than the low 100’s. Baby steps.
Not picking on Beaumont (well, kinda) but it would be nice if they weren't the only ones getting rain lately. I hope this stuff holds up and pushes on through.
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:27 pm
Not picking on Beaumont (well, kinda) but it would be nice if they weren't the only ones getting rain lately. I hope this stuff holds up and pushes on through.
Yeah we have been pretty lucky in Beaumont. Think we have stayed below 100 this except maybe once or twice so far. I think cause were so close to the coast. Yes it DID storm today. Lol. Im afraid to mention it now cause so many have been without. Lol. Hopefully everyone will see some rain this coming week. And we can somewhat all get back to normal precipitation.
Central/"Inner Loop" Houston, including Hobby, hasn't been too bad in the rainfall department so far this July. Still the solid inch+ from the beginning of July, along with decent storms over the past week (including right now).
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:27 pm
Not picking on Beaumont (well, kinda) but it would be nice if they weren't the only ones getting rain lately. I hope this stuff holds up and pushes on through.
Rosharon doesn't seem too far away from central Houston (@Hobby Airport) that I usually keep track of. Looks like some solid storms headed your way — maybe that can give way to deeper coverage as the complex moves closer.
