Wx Infinity Forums

Mr. T wrote:

sleetstorm wrote:Tropical Storm Alex is still traveling nearly due west. Time is gradually running out for that thing to move closer to Texas and Louisiana.

It's not moving due west. Last two center fixes:

18.9N 90.7W
19.2N 90.9W

That's a .3N increase compared to a .2W increase.

Lets not just spit out misleading information here without evidence

My cordial apology to anyone who may be reading my posts. My intention was not to mislead anyone.

The LLC is know back over water....I would say tonight it should tap the 30C water and fire off......dont track the MLC...it kinda got decoupled...look below the high clouds at the lower levels...

why is the CMC running at 18z?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

As I mentioned earlier the model shift wasn't dramatic enough from the 6z to 12z runs so the slight adjustment isn't surprising. Never did see a 12z parallel GFS run so I'll be quite interested in what it shows on the 18z. They won' openly admit it but I still think after reading a few other thoughts from some red taggers on Eastern that the NHC gives more weight to the parallel version despite some of the odd runs. The operational is fixing to be canned anyways.

So we actually might have three shifts in the next few runs. Either some consistency within the group or a overall shift between the two camps to a northern (Mid Texas coast/La.) or southern (Lower Texas coast/Mex) solution. We're entering a close enough time frame to seriously look at the implications for the possible effects for our local area.

Scott747 wrote:As I mentioned earlier the model shift wasn't dramatic enough from the 6z to 12z runs so the slight adjustment isn't surprising. Never did see a 12z parallel GFS run so I'll be quite interested in what it shows on the 18z. They won' openly admit it but I still think after reading a few other thoughts from some red taggers on Eastern that the NHC gives more weight to the parallel version despite some of the odd runs. The operational is fixing to be canned anyways.

So we actually might have three shifts in the next few runs. Either some consistency within the group or a overall shift between the two camps to a northern (Mid Texas coast/La.) or southern (Lower Texas coast/Mex) solution. We're entering a close enough time frame to seriously look at the implications for the possible effects for our local area.

Agreed, Scott....

while we wait for the new model runs....wasnt Claudette coming up from the BOC and we kept thinking it should turn around CC but ended up around Matagorda? I dont remember things to well...

Latest

Off topic:

I've volunteered for Cub Scout Day Camp in NW Houston starting tomorow. I really wish Alex would make up his mind as to direction. I'm guessing that, once again, *tomorrow* will be the telling day or will it be another nail biter tonight?

Interesting tidbit from Jeff Masters. I've heard of the experimental GFDL but can't say I've ever seen it referenced.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... mp=&page=9

Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

Jeff Masters

Steve. Have they scheduled any NOAA flights?

singlemom wrote: I'm guessing that, once again, *tomorrow* will be the telling day or will it be another nail biter tonight?

Probably correct on both accounts singlemom.

Paul...I do remember Claudette...We were at a softball tournament out of town and no one really paid much mind because we were all under the impression she was a South Texas/Mexico storm....I remember watching the update on the weather channel in the hotel lobby...

Scott747 wrote:
Steve. Have they scheduled any NOAA flights?

G-IV, P-3 and C-130's are tasked...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 27 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-027 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 29/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0601A ALEX
C. 28/1730Z..........CORRECTED
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 70
A. 29/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0701A ALEX
C. 28/2030Z
D. 21.1N 93.4W
E. 28/2300Z TO 29/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 29/1200, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0801A ALEX
C. 29/0845Z
D. 21.8N 94.2W
E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE G-IV FLIGHT FOR 30/0000Z.

alex is starting his NW movement so i am almost convinced to go and fill the car up tomorrow....what do you think??

Both the operational and parallel GFS are running and both are at least initialized properly.

That's a good start.

redfish1 wrote:alex is starting his NW movement so i am almost convinced to go and fill the car up tomorrow....what do you think??

Fill er up.

And how are you formulating a heading. Just eyeballing it or actual coordinates?

Paul wrote:while we wait for the new model runs....wasnt Claudette coming up from the BOC and we kept thinking it should turn around CC but ended up around Matagorda? I dont remember things to well...

Paul, I seem to remember the same thing about Claudette. I have a better memory of Humberto, where the anticipated landfall shifted from Brownsville to Galveston in the course of a day. By the time it made landfall at Beaumont/Port Arthur, it was a minimal Cat 1.

Stormrider wrote:

Paul wrote:while we wait for the new model runs....wasnt Claudette coming up from the BOC and we kept thinking it should turn around CC but ended up around Matagorda? I dont remember things to well...

Paul, I seem to remember the same thing about Claudette. I have a better memory of Humberto, where the anticipated landfall shifted from Brownsville to Galveston in the course of a day. By the time it made landfall at Beaumont/Port Arthur, it was a minimal Cat 1.

Humberto was fun...me and EWG called it in via radar all the way to landfall....it was a close call...

18z GFS is going to Brownsville

You can notice the difference in the upper levels by day 2 between the 12z and 18z runs...

Mr. T wrote:18z GFS is going to Brownsville

You can notice the difference in the upper levels by day 2 between the 12z and 18z runs...

No it isn't:

...

NOUS74 KEHU 271900
ADASRH

ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS
200 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

TO: ALL SOUTHERN REGION OFFICES

FROM: SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER

SUBJECT: SPECIAL SIX HOURLY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS REQUESTED SPECIAL SIX-HOURLY UPPER
AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE FOLLOWING STATIONS BEGINNING AT 18Z MONDAY
IN SUPPORT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX.

ABQ...EPZ...AMA...MAF...DRT...OUN...FWD...CRP...BRO...LZK...SHV...
JAN...LCH...SIL

SPECIAL SIX HOURLY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.