Wx Infinity Forums

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 10:56 pm**

txsnowmaker wrote:Did anyone pick up on the 0z GFS forecast for Monday, March 1? Hours 174-180 seem to indicate a decent amount of frozen precip (snow?) for a good part of the city of Houston.

I was just about to post something about that... In fact, we could even see some sleet pellets with saturday's coastal low if that verifies, with snow possible across extreme northern sections of SE TX.

But, my goodness! Lets get tuesday's system out of the way, first.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 10:57 pm**

Relax guys. Have Fun.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:00 pm**

txsnowmaker wrote:Did anyone pick up on the 0z GFS forecast for Monday, March 1? Hours 174-180 seem to indicate a decent amount of frozen precip (snow?) for a good part of the city of Houston.

Link? Snow has fallen in March in Houston. The last time it happened was March 10, 1932, which is the latest recorded snowfall in Houston going back to 1895. Now the probability of snow in March probably happens on average about every 120 to 200 years.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:01 pm**

The surface temps and thickness values/precip is the best ive seen so far from the GFS (look at hours 51 & 54)

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDWH

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:03 pm**

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Mr. T

I deleted an unfortunate insult directed to a board designated pro-met.

Different poster

Oh, as far as providing links, the AccuWeather GFS data is on a pay per view site. And if you don't believe it shows 2 meter temps between 39 and 35ºF at IAH as the last tenth of an inch falls during a six hour period, well, it does.

The wxmaps,org meteogram for IAH should show the GFS meteogram in a little over an hour. It will show blue bars, and before 180 hours, it has an advantage on AccuWx, 3 hour precip windows. Blue bars are snow. It'll also show surface temps above freezing.

NIU shows that as well...

GFS has been a touch warm or a bit light on precip. Just have to go back to the DFW snow miracle. GFS said it'd snow, never predicted anything close to a foot.

So half full glass and tone down the hostility...

I remember seeing snow in Houston when the temperature was 40. I believe it was in the February 1, 1994 snowfall event. There were two I remember that time.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:06 pm**

In case anyone was wondering, here are the definitions of WWA and WSW from the NOAA site

Winter Weather Advisory
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather (snow, freezing rain, sleet, etc.) that present a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria.

Winter Storm Warning
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a winter storm is producing or is forecast to produce heavy snow or significant ice accumulations. The criteria for this warning can vary from place to place.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:09 pm**

FYI: Snow started at 38 degrees in January 1973. Temps dropped to freezing near the end of the event. Meso formed from DT to the E side dropping as much as 8 inches that accumulated. Snow started round 6:00 AM and became heavy snow by 11-12 Noon and continued until about 3-4 PM IIRC.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:10 pm**

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Next weeks potential happy snow?

JB mentioned it.

If you know who JB is, it is usually either love or hate. Probably the most polarizing pro-met on Earth, but he usually has a knack for one week to seasonal trends, based a lot on analogs, and the indices. (I suspect Srain is a JB reader, he posts the NAO and AO and such on a semi-regular basis).

My birthday is March 1st. In my 30 years in Texas (ok, subtract 6 in the Navy), never seen snow on my birthday. It'd make me happier than a little girl getting a pony for Christmas.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:10 pm**

Ptarmigan wrote:
txsnowmaker wrote:Did anyone pick up on the 0z GFS forecast for Monday, March 1? Hours 174-180 seem to indicate a decent amount of frozen precip (snow?) for a good part of the city of Houston.
Link? Snow has fallen in March in Houston. The last time it happened was March 10, 1932, which is the latest recorded snowfall in Houston going back to 1895. Now the probability of snow in March probably happens on average about every 120 to 200 years.

Sorry about not providing the link--see don's post a few posts above. Also, apologies for throwing this into the mix in this thread, especially since it involves the month of March. Perhaps it is time for a new thread...

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:15 pm**

txsnowmaker wrote: Sorry about not providing the link--see don's post a few posts above. Also, apologies for throwing this into the mix in this thread, especially since it involves the month of March. Perhaps it is time for a new thread...

I looked at it and it showed rain, but no 30 to 35 degree temperatures. Warrants keeping an eye.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:17 pm**

Ptarmigan wrote:
I looked at it and it showed rain, but no 30 to 35 degree temperatures. Warrants keeping an eye.

850s and thicknesses during that time frame support wintry precip, but this is just one run, lol

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:19 pm**

srainhoutx wrote:FYI: Snow started at 38 degrees in January 1973. Temps dropped to freezing near the end of the event. Meso formed from DT to the E side dropping as much as 8 inches that accumulated. Snow started round 6:00 AM and became heavy snow by 11-12 Noon and continued until about 3-4 PM IIRC.

I looked at records, there were two days of flurries before the big one came. There was a freeze afterwards and than it warmed up quite a bit to upper 70s. Many did not realize it would snow again twice in February. The first February snow started on a day where the high was 65. The second February snow was not that cold.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:24 pm**

Ed Mahmoud wrote:words

Our winter storm warning criteria is 2" of snow.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:25 pm**

The key to that thinking Ed is if you were making the call as a State or Local Official, do you chance it? We had a pretty good hint that the wheels are already in motion as contingencies have to be made. Right or wrong, this is a Large commuting Metro Area with many flyovers.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:28 pm**

We are close enough where we need to start watching what is actually happening now. We are almost to the point where we will throw out the models and see how things develop.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:29 pm**

Mr. T wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:words
Our winter storm warning criteria is 2" of snow.

That's mean

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:34 pm**

000
FXUS64 KHGX 220523
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1123 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

.AVIATION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE 6Z TAF PACKAGE THAN WHAT IS
ALREADY ADVERTISED. COOL FRONT MAKING ITS INTO THE METRO AREA
ATTM...WITH LOWER END MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS BEHIND.
FRONT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WHAT SEA FOG HAS MOVED INLAND. BIG
QUESTION IS AT THE COAST...WHO IS SOCKED IN GOOD. LATEST TEXT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE FOG PERSISTING THRU THE DAY AND EVEN INTO MON EVNG.
FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT IN A FEW HOURS WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE FCST...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE VFR CIGS AREAWIDE (EXCEPT
MAYBE COAST?) BY EARLY AFTN. WINTER WX FCST HEADACHE THEN TAKES
SHAPE FOR TUES... 47

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:35 pm**

WOW! Very cool.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:36 pm**

Mr. T wrote: Our winter storm warning criteria is 2" of snow.

Probability of +2" of snow.
1 >2" Snowfall=Every 19.2 years
2 >2" Snowfall=Every 368.6 years
3 >2" Snowfall=Every 7,077.9 years
4 >2" Snowfall=Every 135,895.5 years

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:38 pm**

Ptarmigan wrote:
Mr. T wrote: Our winter storm warning criteria is 2" of snow.

Probability of +2" of snow.
1 >2" Snowfall=Every 19.2 years
2 >2" Snowfall=Every 368.6 years
3 >2" Snowfall=Every 7,077.9 years
4 >2" Snowfall=Every 135,895.5 years

4 >2" Snowfall=Every 135,895.5 years

Ok so I say this is the year for 4>2''. Seems like it is around that time again since the last time it happened.

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