December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

[Texaspirate11]

82 and partly sunny by the bay today

[DoctorMu]

Well then that means a storm and colder than progged. Models have completely whiffed on the rain storms this week and we have run cooler than modeled.

Yep - Rain and cool temps have overperformed in College Station as well.

So...I'd bank on cold and rainy, then. Everyone happy?

Nobody said it wasn't going to be cold. It's just not going to be anything special or off the charts. In fact, the temperatures we saw during the snow a week and a half ago might come in colder than what we'll see for highs around Christmas.

But the Miracle Snow is a perfect example. Cold and precip overperformed.

It's just a bit of Weather Karma for last year. There was a huge dome of Siberian air that had been collecting since October 2016 - it seemed destined to spill through Alaska and Canada and give us a few cold shots...but that scenario never materialized...and we seated through Christmas.

Models are consistent with a sustained period of colder than normal weather up until the New Year...and higher than normal precip. Christmas Day is trending sunny No doubt we'd all prefer snow over cold rain with the fronts before and after Christmas day!

[Texaspirate11]

NICE line of storms coming in - should get here around 11 p.m.
I'm going to hold onto 70's/thunderstorms for as long as I can...
I hate winter!

[Cromagnum]

We don't need any, but wasn't there a very high chance of rain for Tuesday? We need something to blow all this muggy crap back out in the gulf.

[Ounce]

NICE line of storms coming in - should get here around 11 p.m.
I'm going to hold onto 70's/thunderstorms for as long as I can...
I hate winter!

You'll be fine. All next week will do is to reinforce your feelings. Stock up on firewood before everyone else buys it! And your favorite liquor, of course.

[davidiowx]

Pretty decent line of storms heading our way with some lightning. Nothing to write home about but, the rain and few rumbles of thunder will sure be nice to hear.

[TexasBreeze]

Nice little line at my place currently!
Gotta enjoy the 0z gfs around New Years, especially north TX (temps). Laughable...

[jasons2k]

Pretty decent rain here - enough to water everything in. Plants are happy

[DoctorMu]

Pretty decent rain here - enough to water everything in. Plants are happy

We've been soaked the last 36 hours. Nice pre-christmas watering!

Things *could* get interesting in the northern counties as the years end...but we're talking (again) 10 days out.

[Katdaddy]

The narrow line of thunderstorms have pushed E of SE TX this morning. Skies will clear and high temps will be in the upper 70s this afternoon for the last day of Fall 2017.

[redneckweather]

Latest Euro and GFS not showing much as far as cold for Christmas...just a half decent front to make it feel seasonal. All the very cold air stays north and off to the East. We are just a few days out so pretty much a lock.

[snowman65]

I enjoy seeing the 10-14 days out models way more than than the 3-5 day models. They are way more entertaining. The closer we get to the actual weather, the more boring and "S.E. Texas" it becomes. Cold-lovers nightmare....lol

[ccbluewater]

Pretty good rain last night! I for one will be happy as long as the temps for Christmas Eve & Christmas Day are atleast seasonable, and that does look to be the case. Nothing worse than having to wear tacky sweaters, much less in 80 degrees, and 90% humidity!

[christinac2016]

I was hoping for some colder weather, although these days I don't really like to be in it a lot. After losing much of my own insulation, I find myself layering a lot. And the surprise snow was something to see....would like to see that again. Isn't January when we see the really cold weather?

[Cromagnum]

I just want it to get (and stay) cold and dry. This perpetual 80 degrees with 80% humidity for 10 months of the year sucks.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well, technically, it will be below normal for a week or two starting on Saturday

[srainhoutx]

Winter officially starts tomorrow and we already have seen a couple of inches of snow. We still have at least 2 to 3 months of cold weather potential.

Just took a peak at the shorter range versions of the NAM (32km/12km/3km). Look at the 500mb vorticity charts at hour 54. Those closed 500mb charts look somewhat like what wxman57 posted a week ago when the GFS showed that vort near El Paso and had totally disappeared from the recent week worth of Global models. Remember is never wise to fully trust those model beyond a couple of day particularly in Winter.

12202017 12Z 32km NAM 54 nam_z500_vort_us_19.png

12202017 12Z 12km NAM 54 namconus_z500_vort_us_43.png

12202017 12Z 3km NAM 54 nam3km_z500_vort_us_55.png

Also the morning Day 8+ Analogs:

12202017 Day 8+ Analogs untitled.png

[don]

GFS shows widespread snow over Southeast Texas late next week lol

[sau27]

Its looking like the Global models have pushed the big cold air dump back by about a week. I'm not sure what to believe at this point. Part of me thinks perhaps they were sniffing out this pattern last week when they showed major cold and ice for the Christmas time frame and were just off on the timing. This thought is bolstered by the fact that the one thing the models have been consistent on is waves of below normal temperatures for the end of the month (with the degree of how below normal varying from run to run). However I'm not buying the historic cold or snow/ice solutions (which the 12Z GFS is back on to) yet. It could very well keep up this game of dangling the carrot in front of us and pulling it away as we get closer.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’ve only officially deemed the GFS the “crazy in law” model