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Haven't paid attention to the front coming down. The line of storms with it has given a nice light show to the nw. How much further south is the front going to go? Trying to be a meet and greet with Harvey as Dr. Mu said!

Good evening,

Since my name is not known here and I will only humiliate my daughter a fractuon of a bit (lol) I need some help from the professionals and educated armatures that I have listened to and learned from for years

My daughter is in college in San Marcos right now and she has a nephew that is having a birthday party in Portland, TX on Sat. She wants to leave tomorrow for Portland and come back to SM on Sunday. Would someone that isn't her mother please tell her that this really isn't a wise idea with this storm in the Gulf and that it is going to be a rainmaker for much of the area she will have to drive in getting home? Of course if I am mistaken feel free to say that as well and I will show her the post either way

Thank you all in advance for your help

A worried mom

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest
that Harvey's structure has consolidated a little bit, with the
pressure falling to 1002 mb and the radius of maximum winds
shrinking to 60 n mi. However, there have been no reliable reports
of winds indicating that the cyclone has reached tropical-storm
strength, and the convective cloud pattern remains ragged. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Perhaps the most
significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the
east of the previous advisory position.

jasons wrote: Perhaps the most
significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the
east of the previous advisory position.

That HAS to impact the next model runs, right?

houstonia wrote:

jasons wrote: Perhaps the most
significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the
east of the previous advisory position.

That HAS to impact the next model runs, right?

Yes, but it's just one parameter of many...but a significant one, nonetheless.

I'm neither a professional, nor an educated anything, but I'll take a stab at it.

As far as leaving tomorrow, sure. Adios. Coming back, presuming she'll land in Austin or SA, it's still a crap shoot, although it would be better than landing in Houston. But would she land less than 2 hours late, so she can drive to Southwest..er, Texas State with no flooded roads...another crap shoot.

The forecast models are not in any shape to make a prediction because there's not enough information to draw a conclusion.

My opinion would be to cut the cord and pray, but don't worry yourself wacky. This event will either make her wiser or more invincible.

She can pick up the livestreams on her device for conditions.

You can always hope the airlines will help your cause. Get her to check her flights with the carrier as to whether they're flying or not on Sunday.

HTH and relax.

Ounce wrote:I'm neither a professional, nor an educated anything, but I'll take a stab at it.

As far as leaving tomorrow, sure. Adios. Coming back, presuming she'll land in Austin or SA, it's still a crap shoot, although it would be better than landing in Houston. But would she land less than 2 hours late, so she can drive to Southwest..er, Texas State with no flooded roads...another crap shoot.

The forecast models are not in any shape to make a prediction because there's not enough information to draw a conclusion.

My opinion would be to cut the cord and pray, but don't worry yourself wacky. This event will either make her wiser or more invincible.

She can pick up the livestreams on her device for conditions.

You can always hope the airlines will help your cause. Get her to check her flights with the carrier as to whether they're flying or not on Sunday.

HTH and relax.

I would if she wasn't driving the whole way

I'm a bit surprised by the shift in the track. When you still have shear, always err to the right, especially after just a single model suite...plus you always wait for the 0Z.

jasons wrote:I'm a bit surprised by the shift in the track. When you still have shear, always err to the right, especially after just a single model suite...plus you always wait for the 0Z.

Eh, I think it makes pretty good sense. I think landfall Corpus is pretty safe bet right now. What happens after is tricky and I think the lack of movement for the forecast is a display of that.

00z GFS coming in much stronger

GFS shows a possible major hurricane going into south/central coastline

tgal wrote:She wants to leave tomorrow for Portland

Portland,Oregon, or Portland, Tx, roughly where the hurricane is supposed to make landfall?

Portland, Tx where the hurricane is headed

At MeteoStar, Corpus Christi has 41 inches of rain in 8 days! An earlier run at 12Z had 7 inches in 8 days!
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KCRP

Houston has 6 inches of rain in 8 days. An earlier run at 12Z had 25 inches in 8 days!
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KIAH

Oz gfs had all the upper level dropsondes ingested. Run is legit.

Ptarmigan wrote:At MeteoStar, Corpus Christi has 41 inches of rain in 8 days! An earlier run at 12Z had 7 inches in 8 days!
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KCRP

Houston has 6 inches of rain in 8 days. An earlier run at 12Z had 25 inches in 8 days!
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KIAH

Wow! I am copying all of these to send to my daughter

tgal wrote:Portland, Tx where the hurricane is headed

Based on this latest run and excuse me for being blunt.

There shouldn't be a snowballs chance in hell that she she even begin to consider heading to Portland...

Blunt is exactly what I needed from someone that wasn't mom. Thank you!

tgal wrote:Portland, Tx where the hurricane is headed

Driving there would probably be ok ... but she will undoubtedly run into problems this weekend and the trip back will likely not be able to happen. Best course of action is not to go!!!!

Scott747 wrote:

tgal wrote:Portland, Tx where the hurricane is headed

Based on this latest run and excuse me for being blunt.

There shouldn't be a snowballs chance in hell that she she even begin to consider heading to Portland...

Indeed. Based upon the most recent runs, the only sane response is "Oh, Hell NO!"

Chances are going to be quite good that the birthday party will be cancelled given these conditions. Additionally, she may find it almost impossible to get there, since it's not out of the question that some highways may go contraflow for evacuations if it continues to look like there is strengthening.

I would say the modeling is consistent enough to start issuing flood watches for the area. Still shows lots of rain.