DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010
VALID 301300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LWR MS
VLY NWD INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NE INTO SRN MB THIS PERIOD. ATTENDANT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS LIKELY WILL SHOW MINIMAL EWD MOVEMENT AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SRN CA/NV CONTINUES SE INTO NW MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING OF THE DAKOTAS LOW APPEARS TO BE TIED...IN PART...TO
100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOW OVER THE SRN HI PLNS. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REDEVELOP NNE TO THE LWR MO VLY BY THIS EVE...AND INTO THE
UPR GRT LKS EARLY SAT. AT THE SFC...THE ABOVE CHANGES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN EWD ACCELERATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF COLD FRONT
NOW OVER THE UPR MS VLY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MI
THROUGH SRN IL TO CNTRL TX BY 12Z SAT.
...MID/UPR MS VLY...
VERY STRONG LOW LVL FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY...WITH 850 MB SSW FLOW AOA 50
KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD
REGION...WITH PW RANGING FROM AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN WI TO ABOVE 1.50
INCHES IN MO. SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 60F SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED IN MO.
A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING FROM ERN KS
INTO THE UPR MS VLY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE JOINED AND/OR REPLACED
BY NEW SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION BY
EARLY AFTN. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AS UPR JET STREAK REDEVELOPS NNE ACROSS REGION.
CLOUDS AND DIFFUSE NATURE OF EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COMPLICATE THE PICTURE. BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE
AXIS OF STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN/CNTRL MO
NNE INTO CNTRL/ERN IA AND WRN WI AS UPLIFT FOCUSES ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES NEAR FRONT.
60-70 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOW LVL
FOCUSING FEATURES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OF SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BROKEN LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MEAN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR HIGH WIND...HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. FAST NNE STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD EXTEND THE SVR THREAT
INTO ERN WI AND WRN/NRN IL BY EVE. A DIMINISHING THREAT MAY PERSIST
INTO EARLY SAT OVER ERN/SRN IL.
...ARKLATEX/SRN OZARKS/LWR MS RVR VLY...
SATELLITE AND GPS DATA SHOW AN AREA OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
/WITH PW NEAR 1.50 INCHES/ NOW ALONG THE NWRN GULF THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE N INTO E TX...THE LWR MS VLY AND SRN OZARKS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCTD TSTMS...MOST OF WHICH MAY BE ELEVATED...MAY FORM
OVER NE TX/ERN OK AND AR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN
AS LOW CLOUDS LIMIT SFC HEATING. BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SVR WX OVER
THE REGION SHOULD BE LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY
MOIST/CONFLUENT FLOW PERSISTS BENEATH DIFLUENT HIGH LVL
JET...SUPPORTING BANDS OF SUSTAINED STORMS.
WHILE HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...COMBINATION OF 45-50 KT
SWLY 500 MB FLOW ATOP 35-40 KT SSWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORMS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT INTO ERN AR AND THE LWR TN VLY AS COLD
FRONT SAGS SE INTO REGION AND PROVIDES AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LOW
LVL ASCENT AMIDST INCREASING MOISTURE.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 04/30/2010
Tomorrow we may see a better chance of some heavier showers/storms as the front approaches. We shall see.
I guess the cans of RAID failed. 
Laughed silently to myself