Former Hurricane Richard
-
srainhoutx
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RECON is arriving and a nice catch by the microwave pass as well...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 00:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 23:48:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°14'N 84°14'W (16.2333N 84.2333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 276 miles (444 km) to the ESE (108°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 654m (2,146ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (33°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 113° at 69kts (From the ESE at ~ 79.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (34°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 765m (2,510ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:44:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:53:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INDICATIONS OF EYEWALL FORMING IN NORTHERN HALF OF STORM, LESS THAN 50 PERCENT COMPLETE, RADIUS OF CURVE 25 NM.
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 00:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 23:48:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°14'N 84°14'W (16.2333N 84.2333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 276 miles (444 km) to the ESE (108°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 654m (2,146ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (33°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 113° at 69kts (From the ESE at ~ 79.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (34°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 765m (2,510ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:44:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:53:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INDICATIONS OF EYEWALL FORMING IN NORTHERN HALF OF STORM, LESS THAN 50 PERCENT COMPLETE, RADIUS OF CURVE 25 NM.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 00:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 0:34:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°16'N 84°20'W (16.2667N 84.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 269 miles (433 km) to the ESE (108°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 642m (2,106ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the W (263°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 12° at 62kts (From the NNE at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (265°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:53:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL RAGGED
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 00:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 0:34:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°16'N 84°20'W (16.2667N 84.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 269 miles (433 km) to the ESE (108°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 642m (2,106ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the W (263°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 12° at 62kts (From the NNE at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (265°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:53:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL RAGGED
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of an upgrade from the NHC this evening. 70mph would be my guess, but with 995mb pressures, they may say it's a Hurricane. We shall see.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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WTNT34 KNHC 240231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
...LITTLE RICHARD GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.
RICHARD IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE
WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE LATE SUNDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
...LITTLE RICHARD GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.
RICHARD IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE
WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE LATE SUNDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 13:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:38:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°50'N 86°35'W (16.8333N 86.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 116 miles (186 km) to the ESE (113°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,353m (4,439ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 85° at 84kts (From the E at ~ 96.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 150° to 330° (SSE to NNW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 84kts (~ 96.7mph) in the north quadrant at 13:33:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYE
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 13:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:38:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°50'N 86°35'W (16.8333N 86.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 116 miles (186 km) to the ESE (113°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,353m (4,439ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 85° at 84kts (From the E at ~ 96.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 150° to 330° (SSE to NNW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 84kts (~ 96.7mph) in the north quadrant at 13:33:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYE
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
It appears we have a Hurricane. Also of note that one of our members HurricaneJosh, is attempting an intercept in Belize. He has hit a bit of a snag with his connecting flight into Belize City from San Salvador though due to a mechanical issue. Will he make it?
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
WTNT34 KNHC 241444
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
...RICHARD BECOMES A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 86.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS.....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS....THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH
THE COAST OF BELIZE BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OVER LAND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE RICHARD MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. THE ISLAND OF ROATAN HONDURAS REPORTED WIND GUSTS
TO 58 MPH...93 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS
991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY THIS
EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
...RICHARD BECOMES A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 86.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS.....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS....THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH
THE COAST OF BELIZE BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OVER LAND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE RICHARD MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. THE ISLAND OF ROATAN HONDURAS REPORTED WIND GUSTS
TO 58 MPH...93 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS
991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY THIS
EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Eye beginning to clear...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241740
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
...RICHARD HEADED FOR BELIZE...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 87.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS.....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS....THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOVE OVER LAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
RICHARD MOVES INLAND. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER RICHARD MOVES
INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST IN BELIZE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ALONG THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
WTNT34 KNHC 241740
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
...RICHARD HEADED FOR BELIZE...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 87.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS.....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS....THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOVE OVER LAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
RICHARD MOVES INLAND. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER RICHARD MOVES
INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST IN BELIZE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ALONG THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 242050
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
...RICHARD BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
BELIZE...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR HONDURAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND MOVE OVER LAND
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...AND WEAKENING WILL BEGIN
AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST IN BELIZE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF BELIZE WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT34 KNHC 242050
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
...RICHARD BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
BELIZE...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR HONDURAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND MOVE OVER LAND
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...AND WEAKENING WILL BEGIN
AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST IN BELIZE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF BELIZE WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 242352
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
700 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
...RICHARD ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RICHARD WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE TONIGHT...ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA MONDAY...AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS RICHARD MOVES
INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL BELIZE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
WTNT34 KNHC 242352
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
700 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
...RICHARD ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RICHARD WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE TONIGHT...ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA MONDAY...AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS RICHARD MOVES
INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL BELIZE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
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-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Landfall S of Belize City...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Hmmm...not weakening, yet...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 250249
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND
0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY. THE EYE
ACTUALLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR THAT RICHARD HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER INLAND. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE IT ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD KEEP RICHARD FROM RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE BACK OVER WATER.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WEAKENS RICHARD TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND NOW INDICATES
DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE RICHARD BECOMES A WEAK
CYCLONE IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT IS A LITTLE
FASTER THEREAFTER...LEANING TOWARD A SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE
SHALLOW BAM MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 17.3N 88.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 17.6N 89.7W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/0000Z 18.2N 91.0W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/1200Z 19.2N 92.2W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 27/0000Z 20.4N 93.3W 25 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
WTNT44 KNHC 250249
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND
0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY. THE EYE
ACTUALLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR THAT RICHARD HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER INLAND. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE IT ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD KEEP RICHARD FROM RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE BACK OVER WATER.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WEAKENS RICHARD TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND NOW INDICATES
DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE RICHARD BECOMES A WEAK
CYCLONE IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT IS A LITTLE
FASTER THEREAFTER...LEANING TOWARD A SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE
SHALLOW BAM MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 17.3N 88.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 17.6N 89.7W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/0000Z 18.2N 91.0W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/1200Z 19.2N 92.2W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 27/0000Z 20.4N 93.3W 25 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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-
biggerbyte
- Posts: 1396
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
It looks like this could hold together enough to get into the BOC. The next question is, how far wnw will he travel before getting kicked out to the north and east. There is some suggestion that Richard will travel all the way inland again into Mexico, then head across Texas. That remains to be seen.
-
biggerbyte
- Posts: 1396
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Also, whatever gets into the BOC, it will be in a very hostile enviroment. It could never make a second landfall before going poof.
Perhaps we will get some rain from the remnants of this storm.
I would not be surprised if Richard is upgraded as a Category 2 in post-analysis. It would be nice to get some rain from Richard.