TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX

[srainhoutx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 10 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-102

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN SUSPECT AREA NEAR 13.5 N AND 63.5 W FOR 12/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING AT 11/1700Z INTO THE SAME AREA.

[Andrew]

Wxman57:

As with Alex, this one won't be developing quickly. It'll take another few days of persistent convection. Might be something for recon to examine by Sunday. More likely on Monday. I think we'll have a TS next Tuesday. I'd say the chances of 92L becoming a TD within 48 hours are closer to 10%. Even 20% is too generous for a TD by noon Sunday.

SHIPS still looks pretty strong. Goes against most models.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THIS
AREA...AND DATA FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE CIRCULATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z operational models today did little to develop 92L and they seem to suggest a weaker disturbance heading toward the NW Caribbean. The NHC raised the percentage to 50% as of the 2 PM TWO. 92L is moving very slowly and has begun to show signs of convection building near a very broad circulation center. It appears that development will be somewhat slow as we head into the weekend, but certainly is worth watching as conditions do look to improve as things move forward. Oh, and Happy Peak Season 2010...

[biggerbyte]

It will not do much until it gets into the western Caribbean and the Gulf. Lookout thereafter.

[Andrew]

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?88

[srainhoutx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 09 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-101

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 14.0N AND 64.0W FOR 11/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY 2 A DAY RESEARCH MISSIONS
DEPARTING AT 10/0900Z AND 1700Z INTO THE SAME AREA.

Pro Met CUmet on easternwx has stated that data from these mission will be included in the Euro ingest for 00Z Saturday. Also stated that the data may be in the GFS as well. We should have an actual center by then to track. Interesting weekend ahead. Also the ensembles (GFS and EC) are a bit concerning regarding a bit more northerly component in any future track. We shall see.

I'll bump this up as a reminder concerning data from the PREDICT missions and ingest into the 00Z runs tonight.

[sambucol]

It will not do much until it gets into the western Caribbean and the Gulf. Lookout thereafter.

That's what I think, too.

[srainhoutx]

Predict and other research RECON is certainly playing a positive role regarding good data for 92L...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
DATA FROM ANOTHER NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

18Z GFDL for what it's worth...

[Ptarmigan]

GFDL has 92L as a Category 3/4 hurricane hitting Central America and Yucatan.

[Andrew]

18Z GFDL for what it's worth...

As this point in time I trust the NAM more than the GFDL... Speaking of the NAM:

[Andrew]

GFS loses it again. It does though keep track of it longer than past runs.

[Paul]

Ed, you are getting that from Eastern? good luck with that....I guess the westerlies have kicked in also...

ECM coming out soon....should shed some light......I can tell you this...burying this into the GOM in mid-Sept would be a rare IMO.....the pattern this year which started back in late Aug is progressive with SV after SV moving through the midwest....any high that sets up shop over Texas is likely to weaken with these passing....EURO showed it in its last run but was intent on pushing this off into the BOC with lowering heights across TX...timing is everything of course....Safe bet right now is Yuc to Cuba track into the south central GOM.....


will it develop? I think it will ....the carib is the hottest part of the basin...untouched this year. Shear is low... its dealing with some dry air currently but should move into a more favorable area....there is a reason we have flights into this right now even though its nothing more than a broad low.

just my 2 cents as of right now.....

[biggerbyte]

Ditto, Paul. Everything you said is the most likely scenario, at this point. Once this gets into the south central gulf we have to be real careful about assuming it will not get pulled northward. Timing is absolutely right.

[vci_guy2003]

Wow, 92L seems to be consolidating this morning .. I'm sure it'll be Julia today.

[perk]

Rock think you're right, i'm not completely buying that Euro track, especially looking at it's spotty performance this season.

[perk]

Rock think you're right, i'm not completely buying that Euro track, especially looking at it's spotty performance this season.

Yeah the NHC has raised it's percentage to 60%.

[Scott747]

The PREDICT data from what I understand will have limited data for long term track. More for the short-term evolution. Also much like the GRIP missions those from PREDICT have been set for awhile to be ready to go during the peak season. It doesn't mean anything special about a particular system as they just fall inline with the research at hand.

GRIP missions are set to run Sunday with both the DC8 and Global Hawk out of California investigating the system.

[srainhoutx]

Certainly looks the best it has this morning...60% should keep AF RECON mission tasked on schedule as well...



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Wider View...greatest vortisity seems to be SE of the convection...