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Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:30 am
by danmaloney
If you have a high pressure system of that size coming into Montana, sorry, But Houston wont get out of the 30's, I am looking only for positive data, nothing negative. My first concern is preventing the cold air from "going east" or "sliding east". Now we need to concentrate on doing something to get moisture in with that air. We need hope.
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:42 am
by TexasMetBlake
Looks like 12z GFS has now joined the CMC and Euro. No 1062 mega high. Cold here in Texas but nothing 'extreme' like the GFS and CMC showed yesterday.
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:21 am
by danmaloney
I refuse to model hug and live and die with each run. Nowcasting is more accurate.
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:27 am
by Kingwood36
Wxman57 says its going to east and only a light freeze in houston next week...figures
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:38 am
by danmaloney
The cold air won't go east. There is too much Greenland blocking. There will be a SE ridge. It wont be possible for the air to " just go east".
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:50 am
by DoctorMu
danmaloney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:38 am
The cold air won't go east. There is too much Greenland blocking. There will be a SE ridge. It wont be possible for the air to " just go east".
It's strange seeing Canadian and GFS go full eastward blows today. Ohio and WV get crushed.
One guarantee: Tonight and tomorrow's model runs will be different. How? we just don't know.
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:52 am
by srainhoutx
danmaloney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:38 am
The cold air won't go east. There is too much Greenland blocking. There will be a SE ridge. It wont be possible for the air to " just go east".
Wrong AZ. Your Greenland "block" retrogrades into the Arctic/Northern Canada next week. The SE "ridge" is and has not happened all winter. The myth of the SE Ridge has failed repeatedly in the various computer schemes in the medium/long range and the ground truth in my backyard.
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:11 pm
by don
I am a little more concerned with the possibility of a icing event late next week than i am with any potential "extreme" cold air over southeast Texas. As many of the 12z GFS ensembles and 12z CMC,12z ICON, still show a prolonged overrunning setup with freezing temps at the surface over the area.As a surface low develops in the gulf flinging moisture over top the cold air at the surface.
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:14 pm
by danmaloney
Wait until the high pressure system is located above montana. when that happens, look at its position. That will determine if anything " goes east".
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:23 pm
by Cpv17
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:50 am
danmaloney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:38 am
The cold air won't go east. There is too much Greenland blocking. There will be a SE ridge. It wont be possible for the air to " just go east".
It's strange seeing Canadian and GFS go full eastward blows today. Ohio and WV get crushed.
One guarantee: Tonight and tomorrow's model runs will be different. How? we just don't know.
Seriously? That freaking sucks! I haven’t had a chance to look at any models yet today.
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:05 pm
by don
12z EURO also slowly trending towards an ice storm setup late next week fwiw.
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:11 pm
by Kingwood36
don wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:05 pm
12z EURO also slowly trending towards an ice storm setup late next week fwiw.
Around here or north of hwy105?
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:20 pm
by don
Most of the models that show an icing event show most of southeast Texas getting frozen precipitation. But we still have a long ways to go before we can have any confidence on how next week may unfold.
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:41 pm
by don
Looking at the 12z Euro in more detail it actually shows significant accumulations of ice along and north of the i-59 corridor. And after the ice storm temperatures stay below freezing through the weekend. But again very far out so alot will change.
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:47 pm
by sambucol
Any idea what it looks like for the duration of freezing? I’m trying to prepare my home for this. Rewrapping pipes etc.
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:13 pm
by danmaloney
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:11 pm
don wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:05 pm
12z EURO also slowly trending towards an ice storm setup late next week fwiw.
Around here or north of hwy105?
the terms high way 105 and going east should be banned
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:21 pm
by djmike
Can someone post model pics of the ice accumulations? TIA
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:24 pm
by Kingwood36
djmike wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:21 pm
Can someone post model pics of the ice accumulations? TIA
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:52 pm
by danmaloney
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:24 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:21 pm
Can someone post model pics of the ice accumulations? TIA
why is there such a large hole west of houston?
Re: February 2021
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:53 pm
by Kingwood36
danmaloney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:52 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:24 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:21 pm
Can someone post model pics of the ice accumulations? TIA
why is there such a large hole west of houston?
Don't take that map as gospel it will change multiple times from now
