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Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:10 am**

Its the cmc tho...its pretty to look at but it will be gone by tomorrow

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:19 am**

12z GFS took a big step in the right direction And looks similar to the CMC. With the gulf low further offshore. With the 540 line and 850mb freezing temps almost down to the coast with plenty of moisture overrunning. Looks like a good setup for snow down here as heavy precipitation would cause wetbulbing that could bring Temps further down at the surface and allow a transition to snow as the upper levels are plenty cold.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:30 am**

The ICON model is also on board now. Not getting excited yet but it is interesting that the major models are showing a winter storm setup for us within 120 hours from now. Now let's see if the EURO is still onboard...

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:35 am**

don wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:30 am The ICON model is also on board now. Not getting excited yet but it is interesting that the major models are showing a winter storm setup for us within 120 hours from now. Now let's see if the EURO is still onboard...

If it’s within 5 days that’s a good thing for sure. Now if we can get it to within 3 days then I’ll start to get a little excited lol

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:38 am**

How come its showing rain for houston and south? Thought that was snow?

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:53 am**

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:38 am How come its showing rain for houston and south? Thought that was snow?

Precip types and locations are hard for the models to get right this far out.As long as the upper levels are cold enough with heavy precip rates especially the rain would eventually transition to snow. The GFS had that issue with last weeks winter storm.Where for several runs it was showing mainly rain in west Texas,even though the profile was a snow profile there and we know how that turned out. But still a long ways out,we'll know more by Thursday/Friday if this is a legit event or not for us.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:02 pm**

don wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:53 am
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:38 am How come its showing rain for houston and south? Thought that was snow?
Precip types and locations are hard for the models to get right this far out.As long as the upper levels are cold enough with heavy precip rates especially the rain would eventually transition to snow. The GFS had that issue with last weeks winter storm.Where for several runs it was showing mainly rain in west Texas,even though the profile was a snow profile there and we know how that turned out. But still a long ways out,we'll know more by Thursday/Friday if this is a legit event or not for us.

Gotcha thank ya sir

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:42 pm**

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:02 pm
don wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:53 am
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:38 am How come its showing rain for houston and south? Thought that was snow?
Precip types and locations are hard for the models to get right this far out.As long as the upper levels are cold enough with heavy precip rates especially the rain would eventually transition to snow. The GFS had that issue with last weeks winter storm.Where for several runs it was showing mainly rain in west Texas,even though the profile was a snow profile there and we know how that turned out. But still a long ways out,we'll know more by Thursday/Friday if this is a legit event or not for us.
Gotcha thank ya sir

The GFS also has a warm bias.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:47 pm**

12z EURO still looks interesting with a mix of precipitation moving in from south central Texas into southeast Texas with the upper levels being pretty cold also. Models have trended with a more suppressed system this afternoon. Which is not good for our friends in north Texas who want snow,but it is a good trend for us down here.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:54 pm**

Does anyone know what the Ukie is showing?

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:55 pm**

don wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:47 pm 12z EURO still looks interesting with a mix of precipitation moving in from south central Texas into southeast Texas with the upper levels being pretty cold also. Models have trended with a more suppressed system this afternoon. Which is not good for our friends in north Texas who want snow,but it is a good trend for us down here.

Has the Euro finished? We are watching over here is South Louisiana as well.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:24 pm**

12z EURO looks interesting for south Louisiana also with surface temps in the mid to upper 30s and 850mb temps at 0c across the I-10 corridor with light precip. This page i found on the NWS website talks about the December 2009 snow event in great detail,the setup this weekend looks very similar to that setup.

https://www.weather.gov/lch/e120409

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:42 pm**

Yeah should be interesting, still longs way out so not getting my hopes up

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:45 pm**

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:42 pm Yeah should be interesting, still longs way out so not getting my hopes up

That’s the right approach for sure. That’s how I feel too.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:48 pm**

Models struggle with wintry precipitation down in our area, now if it’s showing this Friday then we prob have something cooking

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:49 pm**

Yep i wont get excited until at least 72 hours out if not 24 hours LOL.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:43 pm**

Yep, been on this ride several times before so I will wait at the back of the line and watch from a distance.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:47 pm**

I wont be suprised if it's gone on the next set of model runs

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:52 pm**

Moisture seems like it will be there just gotta get this cold air to filter in, always about timing

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:11 pm**

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:10 am Its the cmc tho...its pretty to look at but it will be gone by tomorrow

Was there yesterday. Euro has almost bought in as well. Snow in the Hill Country and College Station.

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