TD #02L Gulf of Mexico

[Hardcoreweather]

96L runs

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... ec6ce4.jpg

[srainhoutx]

8 AM TWO:

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

Latest tracks raise an eyebrow concerning another possible heavy rain event across SE TX mid to late week. Sure seems to be a pattern setting up.

[redfish1]

looks like we may have two systems heading into southeast texas

[kellybell4770]

Which one of these models is the "Euro"? I didn't see the acronym "ECMWF"???

[Mr. T]

Looks like the latest Euro takes 96 more towards western La. - Tx/La. border.

I'm looking at the 0z Euro on the E-Wall site, and it definitely looks like it goes towards S TX

[srainhoutx]

Which one of these models is the "Euro"? I didn't see the acronym "ECMWF"???

Some interesting information concerning Hurricane Track Models...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_c ... cast_model

[Hardcoreweather]

[Hardcoreweather]

[cisa]

Always happy to watch these storms w/you guys. Always feel like it keeps me a step ahead of the game. I advised several of my friends who were off today to review their kits, just to be on the safe side. In the next couple of days, if the models trend our direction, the stores and gas statios will be nuts.

[singlemom]

looks like we may have two systems heading into southeast texas

Please pardon the question but......Dear Son (DS) and I are seeing a specialist in Austin on Thursday, and I was thinking of taking him on to Sea World San Antonio on Friday and Saturday. DS and I haven't had a vacation (with just ourselves) in four years. Money is tight and though I've checked NWS for SA, I'd really appreciate any thoughts you guys have on systems headed up that way later in the week. I know points North of us were hit much harder with "Son of Alex" last week.

I know: you never can tell but....a best guess would be appreciated before I shelled out big bucks for hotel and tickets. The fallout would be epic as well (and all Spectrum parents nods their head...lol).

Thanks, guys

~Mom

[singlemom]

Even without much of a system, right now, 12Z GFS not super optimistic on extended dry weather near San Antonio.


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_ ... opnew.html

Yeeeeah...just saw some models for 60 hr and...wow. *Is* there a chance for a "one two punch" with 96L then that area southward?

[Hardcoreweather]

HWRF

[Hardcoreweather]

Models shift east

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 851f42.jpg

[ronyan]

96L doesn't look like much of a threat (less organized than yesterday). I doubt it will be stronger than a weak TS, but it may provide our area with some more rain.

[Scott747]

Sure did look impressive last night before this latest pause.

200 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[Mr. T]

but it may provide our area with some more rain.

It will definitely do a good job of that...

[Scott747]

12z Euro is S. Texas again. Weak system coming in Thursday. Models seem a little fast and think it will have another day or so over water, if it does go ahead and develop.

While the latest TWO was at 30% they do mention conditions becoming more favorable.

[sleetstorm]

SHIP guidance, initialized at a fairly generous 30 knots, predicts slow strengthening, not quite to hurricane strength before likely landfall.



Not a huge spread in BAM guidance between shallow and deep steering, landfall mid Texas coast versus SE Texas coast, with deeper being further South, indicative GFS doesn't see prohibitive shear with this.

Nogaps- very weak system arriving close to home in 2 days.

Not yet being organized, and being 2 to 3 days from landfall, based on much of the guidance, is probably why this isn't shown being more than a tropical storm. Just won't have time to strengthen despite generally favorable conditions.


Fresh water flooding, with already saturated ground, looks to be the main threat.

Unless serious organization transpires within the next twelve to thirty-six hours, Ed Mahmoud.