Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:40 pm
I just want rain. I don’t care for the cold front but if it means I can get some rain then I’m all for it.
The forecast and radar have changed remarkably up here. From Dry season to Mitigating Brownpatch season?? Am I dreaming?
A nice outflow possibly not going to go Lucy and the football
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1201 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020
.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings will continue to develop tonight,
impacting most of the terminals. The main aviation concern is the
potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms later tonight
into Wednesday morning. An outflow boundary currently over north
Texas will continue to move south-southeast overnight. This
activity could move over KCLL and KUTS after 08Z Wednesday. A few
strong thunderstorms will be possible with damaging winds as the
main risk. The boundary could weaken before reaching I-10;
therefore, did not include VCSH/VCTS for the Houston metro area
and coastal terminals. Shower/storm chances are again possible in
the afternoon; however, this activity will depend on tonight`s
convection. 05
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020/
SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
This first day of fall sure still felt a lot like summer. Heat
indices climbed to 105 to 110 across the area this afternoon, though
slightly lower dew points, partly cloudy skies, and breezy winds may
have made today feel a bit better compared to the past few days. So,
Galveston only got to a heat index of 114 instead of the 117 it got
to yesterday (though we gotta take the wins where we can). Heat
indices tomorrow may again drop a degree or two, so will wait for
the mid shift to make the determination on whether another Heat
Advisory will be needed.
In non-temperature related news, there is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow across the northern third of the
area as an upper level low moves across northern Texas. An
associated weak boundary will attempt to move down into Houston
County and the northern Brazos Valley late tonight bringing with it
a chance of strong thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds. Most of
the guidance yesterday kept the precipitation north of the area, but
today it has been trending slightly further south with this line.
So, have increased PoPs tonight into tomorrow morning in these
northern areas. The chance of showers or thunderstorms continue
through the day tomorrow and into tomorrow night across these
northern zones.
Fowler
LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
At the beginning of the period, ne-sw oriented mid level trof
roughly extending from Missouri to south central Texas will be in
place along with an axis of 2.0-2.2" PW`s pooling across northern
parts of the area. Though the trof gradually weakens/fills, a
general weakness will remain in place aloft going into the
weekend. Combination of large scale lift, daytime heating and
disturbances embedded in the upper flow should provide chances of
shra/tstms across the region. Nudged POPs upward into Saturday
and also pulled them further south toward the coast. Confidence
in the overall details (timing, location, etc) is fairly low and
still suspect things become mesoscale/boundary driven at times.
Northern periphery of an easterly wave associated with the
remnant outskirts of Nana should track toward the southern coast
of Mexico. Other than maybe iso/sct shra offshore, not expecting
impacts locally. May see another wave move into the southern Gulf
early next week, but with an amplifying western ridge and digging
trof to the east...suspect this might just provide a bit of
leading moisture for an advancing cold front (still penciled in
for middle of next week) to work with. 47
MARINE...
Moderate to strong southerly winds and elevated seas will persist
into midweek. Will extend SCA`s across all waters tonight...which
the midnight crew will likely need to push into the day Wed for
some parts. Look for gradually improving conditions Thursday and
Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds will become more
easterly this weekend as the northern periphery of a tropical wave
moves toward the east coast of Mexico. 47
CLIMATE [Updated]...
We are on record watch once again. Galveston this morning only
got down to a low of 87 degrees, which ties the all time record
low min of 87 last set yesterday. Not to be outdone, both the City
of Houston and Houston-Hobby only got down to 84 degrees this
morning. This could break the all time record high min of 83
degrees for both of these sites, which both reached just
yesterday.
In case your internal calendar missed it cause of all this heat, but
it is now September and the start of climatological fall!
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 97 77 93 73 / 60 40 40 40 60
Houston (IAH) 81 98 79 95 78 / 10 10 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 85 92 83 91 83 / 10 0 10 10 20
&&