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Next Saturday looks like the best chance of rain. Wednesday looks pretty iffy on GFS and Candadian.

The Euro has a sharp cutoff in rain between central Texas and SETX. Central Texas gets hammered with several inches, western parts of SETX get about 1-2”, eastern half of SETX gets about an inch or less.

I see 2 waves on the Euro. First wave late on Friday might give us some rain.

The second wave has more oomph, though and most is staying west for now. Wednesday's action looks along I-35 as well.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 3:02 pm I see 2 waves on the Euro. First wave late on Friday might give us some rain.

The second wave has more oomph, though and most is staying west for now. Wednesday's action looks along I-35 as well.

I’m guessing the ridging is too close to SETX on the Euro to allow any eastward progression.

Figures, just figures.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 3:27 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 3:02 pm I see 2 waves on the Euro. First wave late on Friday might give us some rain.

The second wave has more oomph, though and most is staying west for now. Wednesday's action looks along I-35 as well.

I’m guessing the ridging is too close to SETX on the Euro to allow any eastward progression.

It's going to be close:

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 5:00 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 3:27 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 3:02 pm I see 2 waves on the Euro. First wave late on Friday might give us some rain.

The second wave has more oomph, though and most is staying west for now. Wednesday's action looks along I-35 as well.

I’m guessing the ridging is too close to SETX on the Euro to allow any eastward progression.

It's going to be close:

Isn’t the Euro known to overdo ridging?

^I certainly hope so. NOAA has partially bought into rain in our area - 50% chance now on Saturday and Sunday. Tuesday's chance of rain has been raised to 40%.

TWC is selling 80% over next weekend, but their long range prognostications are barely above a blindfolded rhesus monkey and a dart board.

Tomorrow evening may be interesting to watch across Central Texas. Global models and some of the mesoscale models indicate an MCS may form over the region and track southeast. Something to keep an eye on for some isolated heavy rain.

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 6:10 pm Tomorrow evening may be interesting to watch across Central Texas. Global models and some of the mesoscale models indicate an MCS may form over the region and track southeast. Something to keep an eye on for some isolated heavy rain.

They look to fall apart as they enter our area. Western areas have the best chance.

Yeah it looks like if you are south of Conroe, you may get some light rain if anything. All the futurecasts have this fizzling out by the time it gets over here.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 10:41 pm Yeah it looks like if you are south of Conroe, you may get some light rain if anything. All the futurecasts have this fizzling out by the time it gets over here.

Hallettsville to Brenham line and points west of there stand the best shot at seeing anything tomorrow.

The 0z GFS is an absolute soaker for SETX. Days of rain for us on this run.

Hmm, you talking about starting in a week or so?

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:55 am Hmm, you talking about starting in a week or so?

Starting today actually. Well for areas out west anyway.

Morning surprise: We've had a few drops. Large, rotating meso mess rumbling in this direction from Austin. Fingers crossed for more liquid gold.

Yeah it’s looking more and more like some rain and storms are on the way. Could be heavy at times.

I’ve noticed over the years there have been a number of May flooding events that were not forecasted in advance.

HRRR model has some areas out west getting over 5” today. Sweet spot might be Colorado County.

A little surprised to look at the radar and see two tornado warnings at the moment between Brenham and Austin, and another just north of San Antonio.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 10:20 am HRRR model has some areas out west getting over 5” today. Sweet spot might be Colorado County.

I’m here in Weimar at the farm. Bring it! My tank needs to rise a few feet.

javakah wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 11:18 am A little surprised to look at the radar and see two tornado warnings at the moment between Brenham and Austin, and another just north of San Antonio.

Weren't they saying along and north of I10, especially west of our area was the focus this afternoon? I know we weren't expecting anything until much later today or early tomorrow, albeit still in the northern half of our area.