March - Slow Warming Trend With Rain Chance This Weekend?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I was so hoping to see that my provinces gift to you folks would have resulted in snow.

Too warm in Houston but it sure would have been exciting to read that Dallas had a chance for moisture with the cold tonight.

[Portastorm]

I guess nobody wants to talk about that 12z GFS run past 10 days ... you know, the one which shows accumulating snowfall in the Hill Country and Austin metro areas?!

[Belmer]

I guess nobody wants to talk about that 12z GFS run past 10 days ... you know, the one which shows accumulating snowfall in the Hill Country and Austin metro areas?!

If it was November-January and I saw that 12z GFS run, my mouth would be watering, but how the models have treated us this winter, I'm not even giving it a thought at the moment. Let me see that run again within 24-36 hours of the event. Then we can chat..

[Portastorm]

I guess nobody wants to talk about that 12z GFS run past 10 days ... you know, the one which shows accumulating snowfall in the Hill Country and Austin metro areas?!

If it was November-January and I saw that 12z GFS run, my mouth would be watering, but how the models have treated us this winter, I'm not even giving it a thought at the moment. Let me see that run again within 24-36 hours of the event. Then we can chat..

Oh, I know! I agree completely with you, Belmer. But it is interesting that both the Euro and GFS suggest some pretty cold air impacting Texas in the middle of March. To me it all suggests that a consistent pattern of warmth as we head into spring may not occur.

[Texas Pirate]

I guess nobody wants to talk about that 12z GFS run past 10 days ... you know, the one which shows accumulating snowfall in the Hill Country and Austin metro areas?!

I'm just holding on to the hope that Blue Bonnets will come.
I'm so over this cold weather.

[Belmer]

I'm just holding on to the hope that Blue Bonnets will come.
I'm so over this cold weather.

Blue Bonnets already up and bloomed here in Central TX. At least here in my area (San Marcos).

[Texas Pirate]

I'm just holding on to the hope that Blue Bonnets will come.
I'm so over this cold weather.

Blue Bonnets already up and bloomed here in Central TX. At least here in my area (San Marcos).

OH! That is the best news I read all morning ~now if we can get rain this weekend...

[Kludge]

< crickets >

... the first sign you're in a blah weather pattern.

[jasons2k]

They're blooming up here as well as the Azaleas. Now if it would just stay warm for more than one day at a time...

[srainhoutx]

After a quiet week in the weather department and daily lack of guidance continuity, the Winter RECON data from the Pacific appears to have paid some dividends and finally settled the computer models down over night. While we have seen many times this year so far those models paint rain and storm chance for our Region that have left us lacking with rainfall, perhaps this storm system will bode a bit better for our drought parched area.

What makes the next storm system a bit more challenging and hopeful that most areas will benefit from rains and storms is the dual ejection process of a 500mb upper low and attending surface low with embedded disturbances riding the Sub Tropical Jet along a SW to NE oriented positive tilted upper trough that hangs back into Northern Mexico. Winds will begin to switch E and then ESE to SE today as high pressure that has brought quiet weather other than passing high clouds across the region moves E and the Gulf opens for business. The return flow off the Gulf and increasing moisture along with moderating temps should set the stage for warming temps and increasing low level moisture flow as pressures fall to our W. The SPC has outlined a Slight Risk for late Friday as well as Saturday for areas of the Panhandle extending SE into the Hill Country on Saturday. What make this storm complex a bit different is that it will not be fast moving, nor a skinny line of showers that races across the Region. The slower progression of the long wave pattern may offer a better chance at some much needed rain with the best chances Saturday for Central Texas and Sunday for NE/E/SE Texas as a line of storms finally clears the area and we dry out once again as a zonal flow pattern returns. The fly in the ointment may be that the Pacific front may hang up near the Coast late Sunday increasing rain and storm chances for Louisiana. Fingers crossed this storm will fair better in the rainfall department all of our Region than we have experienced thus far this year.

[Kludge]

I'll look at this more closely, still hoping against hope Boston can could a three day school weekend

I fully agree with... wait... what???

That does it. I'm donating my fifth of Jack Daniels to my local Masonic lodge. This drought is starting to make our brain cells go mushy.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Changes underway across the region as the cool and dry pattern begins to break down.

A large upper level storm system over the western US this morning will slowly progress into the central and southern plains over the next 48-72 hours. Surface winds are already responding to the lowering pressures over the southern high plains with winds swinging around to ESE and by this afternoon SE. Recent frontal passages have worked over the Gulf of Mexico with a mass of dry air located over much of the Gulf, so it will take time for SE/S winds to return moisture into the region. Aloft winds have become increasingly SW over the last 24-36 hours with high level cirrus clouds and upper level moisture across the state. As moisture slowly deepens off the Gulf and SW flow aloft brings small disturbances across the area the chance of rainfall will be increasing. Do not expect rain today with dry low levels still in place, but do think there will be a chance for a few showers on Saturday as the moisture depth increases.

Best rain chances will come Sunday as the next cold front moves across the region and the main upper level system ejects into the plains. Models are in decent agreement on the front crossing the area between about 1000am Sunday morning and reaching the coast by early Sunday evening. Pesky capping in noted on the forecasted soundings over the southern parts of the area which makes me wary of how far south and how widespread development on the front will actually be. Recent events have not produced much weather south of I-10 due to this capping inversion and the slightly northward deflection of the storm track this late winter/early spring. Feel the best chances of rain and thunderstorms will be north of I-10 and a few storms in this region could be near severe levels especially after noon on Sunday when marginal surface heating will be maximized, but this does not appear to be a significant severe weather threat. Rainfall amounts will average .5-1.0 inch north of I-10 to near .25 of an inch around Matagorda Bay with lesser amounts south and west of there.

Another post frontal dry air mass will move into the region early Monday with clearing skies and cool temperatures. Lows in the 40’s and highs in the low 60’s will make it cool for the first few days of Spring Break.

[srainhoutx]

A vigorous upper low has moved inland across Southern California and is slowly moving E across the Desert SW this evening. A dry line has developed across the Central Panhandle and the SPC has outlined that area for a Slight Risk of storms this evening. The dry line will progress E toward the Edwards Plateau and the Balcones Escarpment tomorrow where the SPC currently has outline a Day 2 Slight Risk. The main issue will be capping with SW winds aloft. The short range meso guidance is suggesting the cap will weaken and a broken line of storms will develop tomorrow afternoon/evening across the Hill Country and slowly progress E into Sunday. Hopefully the areas across Central Texas can benefit from the expected ¼ to ½ inch rainfall. Some isolated near 1 inch amounts are possible where the heavier storms develop, if they do. Chilly air will follow the Pacific front with gusty winds raising the Wild Fire danger later on Sunday into Monday. Monday looks like breezy chilly day with temps struggling to get out of the 50’s and morning low in the 30’s if the winds can relax.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2013

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK AND
WESTERN AR...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...WITH THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER NORTHERN NM. THE TROUGH WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEB/IA SOUTHWARD INTO
TX/LA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK AND
EXTREME WESTERN AR...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...TX/OK/WESTERN AR...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY
ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAVE HELPED TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF
OK/TX WHERE MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ARE COMMON. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.
NEVERTHELESS...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL HELP TO YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND MUCH OF OK...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT
TRACKS INTO CENTRAL TX/OK. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW STRUCTURES. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT WILL BE WEAK CAPE
AND RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE STRONGER STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EAST TX/OK AND POSSIBLY INTO
WESTERN AR. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHEAST
OK AND NORTHEAST TX WHERE IT APPEARS THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR.

...KS/NEB...
FARTHER NORTH...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE SSEO SUGGEST A
SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB. THIS AREA MAY
SEE MORE DAYTIME HEATING THAN FARTHER SOUTH AS THE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..HART/COHEN.. 03/09/2013

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[srainhoutx]

Daylight Savings Time begins early tomorrow morning. Don’t forget to go into the user control panel and select the board preferences tab and change your global settings to Summer Time/DST is in effect = yes and then submit. We will change the Admin Control Panel tonight so that the board is switched to DST.

[Portastorm]

Hopeful for a good round of severe weather here in Austin later this evening, especially to send a message to all of the SXSW-goers "no, do not move here!"

Haven't seen this morning's GFS runs but yesterday I saw some 1 to 1.5 inch progged totals for our area. Would love that!

[srainhoutx]

The latest SPC SREF meso analysis is suggesting things may get a bit more interesting for those near the Dallas/Ft Worth area later this evening. The SPC Update should be out shortly and we’ll see if there is a slight increase in the tornado percentages for N Central/NE Texas. Capping still appears to be an issue above 700mb with W to SW winds, but perhaps the cap erodes enough as the pre frontal trough/dry line moves closer to the Edwards Plateau/Balcones Escarpment later this afternoon/evening. We will see.

[txflagwaver]

HATE losing that hour!! I am sick as a dog and ready for some consistent, more humid, a little warmer weather.

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Central Texas including the Metro Areas of San Antonio and Austin until 2:00AM.