October: Warm & Dry To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ172-173-189>194-206>208-132100-
BASTROP-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KENDALL-LEE-
TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COMAL...BASTROP...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...LEE...KENDALL...HAYS AND
GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN A MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT FROM GEORGETOWN AND AUSTIN AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
BLANCO AND SEGUIN. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
BASTROP...
ANDERSON MILL...
CEDAR PARK...
BURNET...
PFLUGERVILLE...
WINDEMERE...
BERTRAM...
ROUND ROCK...
ELGIN...
GIDDINGS...

[srainhoutx]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
653 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXC287-140015-
/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-121014T0015Z/
LEE TX-
653 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY...

AT 651 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OLD DIME BOX...OR 6 MILES EAST OF
LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG FM 696. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE TANGLEWOOD.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ195-140030-
BURLESON TX-
645 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BURLESON COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

AT 642 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEXINGTON OVER LEE COUNTY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COMMUNITIES NEAR AND WEST OF CALDWELL TO THE COUNTY LINE.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC041-051-140045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0158.121013T2356Z-121014T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 651 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TANGLEWOOD
CLOSE TO THE LEE COUNTY AND BURLESON COUNTY LINE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALDWELL.

[tireman4]

Would you not know it? Our A/C goes out this evening. Lovely. At least there is a breeze. Uggh...

[srainhoutx]

Unconfirmed reports of a tornado on the ground in Lee County heading NE toward College Station area

[srainhoutx]

Reports suggest a rain wrapped tornado continues in Burleson County near Caldwell

[srainhoutx]

Heads up in Caldwell, Bryan/College Station. HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Burleson and Brazos Counties. This storm has a history of a rain wrapped tornado.

[txflagwaver]

Hope it holds together till it gets down here

[jasons2k]

Looking good from this vantage point - nice solid line about to plow through. There's a few small cells out ahead building and feeding into it, which tells me it's not going to fall apart this time.

[srainhoutx]

Looking ahead to the coming week, there remain some differences in the guidance and it appears the Euro/Canadian may have a better handle on the placement of the large upper low forecast to drop S into the Plains/Western Great Lakes region on Wednesday. The GFS appears to far N as forecaster Kocin of the HPC explains this morning in their Extended Discussion. That would tend to suggest a fairly strong cold front will dive S into Texas Wednesday and exit off the Coast early Thursday.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
926 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

VALID 12Z THU OCT 18 2012 - 12Z SUN OCT 21 2012

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT
THEN GOES RAPIDLY DOWNHILL BY DAY 5/FRIDAY...AFTER WHICH
PREDICTABILITY THROUGH DAY 7/SUNDAY IS BELOW AVERAGE.

A STRONGLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DOMINATES THE FORECAST...WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING WITH CONSIDERABLE
PREDICTABILITY. THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS START OFF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DAY 3/WEDNESDAY BUT LARGE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW
UP BY DAY 4/THURSDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN MEANS ARE
SLOWER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH A DEVELOPING MEAN UPPER LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MEAN UPPER LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS 350 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE EUROPEAN LOW OVER
CENTRAL IOWA.

IN GENERAL...THE OVERNIGHT OPERATIONAL FORECASTS SEEMED TO SUPPORT
THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN MEANS OVER THE GEFS/NAEFS MEANS WITH REGARD
TO LOCATIONS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND UPPER 500 MB LOW. THE
OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY ON DAY 4/THURSDAY
SEEMED TO FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS IN PARTICULAR.

THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUED TO EXPAND BY DAY 5/FRIDAY WITH THE
FORECASTS OF THE 500 MB LOW MEAN POSITION EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO NORTH OF LAKE HURON BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST AND THE GEFS FORECASTS. THE CANADIAN/NAEFS FORECAST FELL
IN BETWEEN THE TWO. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS...THE LEADING COLD
FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS THE EDGE OF THE
APPALACHIANS IN THE 00Z ECMWF RUN WHILE THE FRONT IS ALONG OR JUST
PASSING EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE 00Z GFS FORECAST.

Looking further into the future toward late October, the longer range guidance continues to advertise a much strong cold front and plentiful rainfall and even some potential for another round of severe weather as what may well be the first real Blue Norther of the season dives S into the Lone Star State bringing much colder temps and a taste of winter weather to the Southern Plains and even perhaps as far S as the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma and possibly even N Texas. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

TXZ199-212-213-141415-
WALLER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-
832 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WALLER...SOUTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

AT 830 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PRAIRIE VIEW...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOMBALL...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...PINEHURST...WALLER...MAGNOLIA...
PINE ISLAND AND STAGECOACH.

[tireman4]

As Srain states, "Stepping Down". I think, and I am not a meteorologist..lol, we may have seen our last 90 degree day for the year this past week.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX 918 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012

TXZ199-212-213-141500-
WALLER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-
918 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WALLER...SOUTHERN
MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

AT 912 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE WOODLANDS...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WALLER...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF AN INCH OF RAIN AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...PINEHURST...OAK RIDGE NORTH...
SHENANDOAH...PORTER HEIGHTS...MAGNOLIA...CHATEAU WOODS...
STAGECOACH AND WOODLOCH.

[txflagwaver]

nah...still gonna have the warm spells...cold air would need reinforcing cold fronts to stick around....but I am certainly looking forward to colder air for the holidays. As for the weather at the end of October...there is ALWAYS a storm right before Halloween. That's why I wait to put the electronic stuff and the spiderwebs out..lol

[sambucol]

What kind of temps will have with the cold front at the end of the month?

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1006 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012

TXZ199-200-213-141545-
MONTGOMERY TX-LIBERTY TX-HARRIS TX-
1006 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...WEST
CENTRAL LIBERTY AND NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

AT 959 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST
OF WOODBRANCH TO SPRING TO THE CYPRESS AREA..MOVING EAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF AN INCH OF RAIN AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGWOOD...SPRING...HUMBLE...ALDINE...OAK RIDGE NORTH...PORTER
HEIGHTS...PATTON VILLAGE...WOODBRANCH...ROMAN FOREST...CHATEAU
WOODS AND PLUM GROVE.

[unome]

that was pretty wild, looked like rotation in low clouds at the back end - here's a nearby weather station in Cypress area

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KTXCYPRE49

[jasons2k]

I've measured .81" so far, with maybe another little round to come.

[unome]

we don't have a gauge, but it was dropping buckets - Harris County Rainfall Map shows big discrepancies in areas around us - the gauge at Cypress Creek right at 290 is always almost dry, even when we get inches

lightning was extreme, we unplugged most electric/cable in the house while it went by, CenterPoint is showing some outages, it only went out briefly here not until it was just about over for us

very glad I didn't water yesterday - sun just came out here

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outage ... index.html