February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[Portastorm]

It's too bad the models can't be trusted right now beyond 4-5 days, because that 12z GFS sure is showing a mighty Arctic Outbreak for Texas at 240 hours and beyond!

[jasons2k]

It's too bad the models can't be trusted right now beyond 4-5 days, because that 12z GFS sure is showing a mighty Arctic Outbreak for Texas at 240 hours and beyond!

Yeah Charlie - when does the GFS ever NOT show an arctic outbreak in the long-term?

[srainhoutx]

The HPC has a lot of interest in the Pacific at this time. And possible additional G-IV/C-130 missions has been tasked as well as the 2 C-130 missions from Alaska.

NOUS42 KNHC 301730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EST MON 30 JANUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JANUARY TO 01/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-061

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/0000Z
B. AFXXX 09WSC TRACK55
C. 31/1830Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 01/0600Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/1200Z
B. NOAA9 10WSC TRACK55
C. 01/0730Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 01/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR
P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/0000Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR
P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/1200Z.

[Portastorm]

It's too bad the models can't be trusted right now beyond 4-5 days, because that 12z GFS sure is showing a mighty Arctic Outbreak for Texas at 240 hours and beyond!

Yeah Charlie - when does the GFS ever NOT show an arctic outbreak in the long-term?

Jason, most winters I would agree with you ... however, I can show you about three weeks worth (as in the last three weeks) where the majority of the GFS runs showed no such thing. Yes, it is an extreme solution and yes it is the GFS at 240 hours out. Take it with a grain of salt ... but it is something of interest. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'll get back to my milquetoast "mostly cloudy and 20% chance of showers" weather.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final afternoon Update:

FINAL...

MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE. THE 12Z/30 GUIDANCE WAS JUST AS CHAOTIC AS THE 00Z/30
CYCLE...WITH NO MODEL TO MODEL NOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. AT
LEAST THE 12Z/30 GEFS MEAN WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE MANUAL
BLEND...INDICATING THE PASSAGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY DAY 5. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

[Belmer]

No joke, I just took a look at the 12z GFS. Talk about beautiful looking. Sadly, it is the GFS ...10 days from now. Though, my wishful thinking cap is still on. NE would get slammed with the cold as well if it were to verify.
At hour 240 a pretty good looking upper low in the Gulf would bring some decent rains along the coast and in south TX. Snow for the Panhandle. Hour 262 would have a possible snow chance in deep south TX as the Low begins to move out. Of course way out there in la la land-hour 312 has snow very close to Miami, FL.

All we need is that Low to move a little slow and a bit further north.

[wxman57]

Yes the Euro fails to phase the northern and southern stream energy at 240 hrs and shuffles the cold air to the east across the Great Lakes vs. south. Which is right? I do know that the 12Z operational GFS is nowhere close to the ensemble mean, so I would tend not to believe it at this time.

Meanwhile, here's a meteogram based on that 12Z operational GFS run. Low of 21F at IAH on the 11th with a dew point of -12F. High in the upper 30s (21Z vs. the 00Z temps shown on the graphic).

[wxman57]

My new theory, you only live once, if the Euro doesn't show the wishcast solution I want, I just don't discuss it.

There are many on some online weather forums who really (REALLY) want some very cold temps. I don't happen to be one of those people. However, the 12Z GFS at least gives these poor, unfortunate cold lovers a glimmer of hope. For now, it's just a glimmer, though. Wait until late next weekend to see if other models have come into agreement.

[srainhoutx]

There are many on most weather forums who really (REALLY) want some very cold temps. I don't happen to be one of those people. However, the 12Z GFS at least gives these poor, unfortunate cold lovers a glimmer of hope. For now, it's just a glimmer, though. Wait until late next weekend to see if other models have come into agreement.

I fixed your post for you, wxman57...

[srainhoutx]

While many are dreaming of 'colder temps', the main focus in the near term will need to be on the events ahead later in the week. While there remain much uncertainty is just how the storm system will evolve, it does appear rain/storm chances increase Friday into Saturday. A Winter Storm RECON mission is in progress S of Alaska and that new data should help settle the guidance down and additional missions are tasked for the NOAA G-IV from HI as well as possible future missions. NWS Austin/San Antonio offers a snip of things to come. We'll see how the guidance responds to that additional data over the next couple of days.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS SIMILAR IN PRODUCING AN
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE PATTERN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO
THE PLAINS WITH THE GFS A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE AND DUG A LITTLE
LESS. NONETHELESS...BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. BOTH MODELS ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
POTENTIALLY GIVING US SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL. WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...OVERRUNNING
RAINS AND ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WET SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS NEXT MONDAY AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

[srainhoutx]

A little birdie told me that those Euro weeklies have flipped to a classic -EPO/+PNA/-NAO regime during weeks 2-3. Perhaps we'll skip the 'stepping down' process and just plunge...hmmm...

[JackCruz]

Why must the 12z tantalize and arouse my snow buds so? Come on Mr.GFS, don't torture me like this.

[Ptarmigan]

There are many on some online weather forums who really (REALLY) want some very cold temps. I don't happen to be one of those people. However, the 12Z GFS at least gives these poor, unfortunate cold lovers a glimmer of hope. For now, it's just a glimmer, though. Wait until late next weekend to see if other models have come into agreement.

Last year at this time, it was getting cold and there were talks of snow even falling.

[tireman4]

HockeyTx82, posted this on another channel. You have got to be kidding. I have been a runner for over 30 years. I have run in snow, sleet and rain. I have run in 29 degree weather and 96 ( I so paid for that) degree weather. Nothing like this. No way...

Five runners brave -49 for Chilly Buns Run; extreme cold postpones, cancels other races
by Bob Eley/beley@newsminer.com Fairbanks Daily News Miner
Jan 28, 2012 | 13253 views | 0 | 16 | | FAIRBANKS—Six Fairbanks runners proved to be nearly superhuman or maybe insane, by completing Running Club North’s Chilly Buns Mid-winter Fun Run Saturday morning.

The temperature was 49 below when the 6.4-mile race began at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Patty Center parking lot, with thick ice fog shrouding low lying portions of the hilly course.

Five of the six participants insisted on running the entire course, which follows Sheep Creek, Mill Hill, Yankovich, Ballaine roads and returns to the starting line via Farmers Loop and campus roads. The low-lying areas of the course

All finished safely and in good spirits, according to finisher Jane Lanford.

Dirk Nickish was the first finisher in 50 minutes and 14 seconds, followed closely by Bruce Sackinger in 50:51.

Lanford, the only female participant, finished third in 57:02. Don Kiely crossed the line in 58:06 and Bob Vitale finished in 60:52.

Paul Reynolds ran a 2.5-mile course in 30 minutes.

http://newsminer.com/bookmark/17330613- ... celations-

[wxman57]

18Z GFS says no cold around the 11th. I think it's likely that the 12Z GFS was an extreme run, not likely to happen.

[niner21]

How is Sunday pm looking? Have a Superbowl Party outside and I can't have rain (has to do with a projector and a 20' screen...)

[srainhoutx]

How is Sunday pm looking? Have a Superbowl Party outside and I can't have rain (has to do with a projector and a 20' screen...)

Check back on Wednesday. The guidance is still not offering a sensible solution regarding the late week storm system. The HPC still suggesting a very low confidence forecast for the upcoming weekend. That said it does appear a stalled boundary will linger near the area on Sunday with over running conditions possible as a weak upper air disturbance swings through Central Texas. We will see. It also appears a decent Winter Storm will lay down some snow across the Plains setting the stage for things to come later during the 2nd week of February...

[C2G]

Keep up the good work, wxman57. Just counting down until it's not likely we'll get any surprises from the north.
Bring on the warmth and sun.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:...incluced the showers across the area today (January 31st) and looking ahead...

Short wave trough moving across the state this morning is helping to foster an area of showers/at times heavy rainfall over the western ½ of SE TX currently. Area of rainfall currently extends from Brazoria County northward into northern Waller County and then westward into Matagorda, Wharton, and Colorado counties. This area of rainfall is moving generally ENE at 10-15mph. Radar shows upwards of .5-1.0 inch of rainfall so far this morning over portions of Jackson and Wharton Counties, so a decent soaking seems at least likely for area west of I-45 and south of HWY 105 this morning.

Short wave and rainfall activity will progress eastward and out of the region late this afternoon. Incoming southerly winds will bring dewpoints into the 60’s across nearshore water temperatures in the 50’s. Warmer air mass flowing over cooler waters will chill to saturation with dense sea fog likely to develop over the coastal waters and inland bays this evening. Visibilities of less than 1 mile can be expected and this fog will spread inland overnight into Wednesday morning.

Mild weather will continue through much of the week…so common this 2011-2012 winter…with the area under the influence of the sub-tropical jet stream aloft. Disturbances in this flow will cross the region and chances for showers, while on the low side (less than 30%), will be possible each day this week. Most likely days for additional rainfall will come toward the end of the week as the next cold front and upper level trough move across the state. Next significant cold front should sweep across the area early Saturday morning and the combination of increasing moisture and strong frontal lift along with lifting from an upper level trough should promote a decent shot at rainfall Friday-early Saturday over the region. For now 40% for Friday and Friday night will work, but rain chances may need to be bumped up as the time draws closer. Additionally, there may be enough instability for a few thunderstorms with the front.

Front will be off the coast with gusty northerly winds and falling temperatures on Saturday. Upper level trough will be slow moving and a period of moisture being pulled northward over the frontal slope looks possible post frontal passage keeping clouds and at least a slight chance of rainfall through the weekend into early next week. Combination of cold air advection and clouds/possible rain will keep highs in the 50’s Saturday and Sunday. Should a more progressive solution develop in the models, skies might clear by late Sunday, but it will likely remain on the cool side.

Just beyond this forecast period, there continues to be hints that some significantly colder weather could impact the state. While extremely cold air mass continues to reside in northern Canada and Alaska, so far there has been no favorable delivery pattern to bring this cold air southward this winter. GFS model was much colder on the runs yesterday than this morning, but it has been hinting around with the idea of colder weather in the Feb 7-15 time period. We shall see…

[srainhoutx]

Updated QPF forecast through early Sunday morning...