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FXUS64 KHGX 212120
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2010
...RECORD BREAKING HEAT WILL COME TO AN END...
.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR WE HAVE HAD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT BOTH KCLL
AND KIAH ASSUMING TEMPERATURES DO NOT FALL BELOW 58 AND 67
DEGREES RESPECTIVELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN BROKEN OR TIED AT KCLL KIAH AND KHOU. IT LOOKS LIKE
WITH THE SW WINDS...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
80S ACROSS SE TX.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE RED
RIVER. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND FORECAST MODELS SLOWLY
BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SE TX DURING THE DAY WED. SUSPECT
THAT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS THAT LIMIT MIXING WILL ONLY
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. THE FRONT MAKES A BIT MORE OF A
BACK DOOR PUSH ON THURSDAY SO I HAVE HEDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. AGAIN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY. ALSO WITH E/SE WINDS...MAY HAVE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW POPS WILL BE HELD AT 10 PERCENT WITH DRIZZLE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOG. WINDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WHICH MAY HELP WITH
SOME RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME SEA FOG ALONG
GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE BAY. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF FOG WILL BE
TRICKY BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL HAVE SOME FOG TO LIMIT VIS BY
WED MORNING.
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE A TROUBLE SPOT IN
THE FORECAST. SEEMS THAT THE GFS/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE NAM HAVE
STARTED A TREND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. NAMELY A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF THE CALI COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE S
ROCKIES THU AND INTO THE S PLAINS FRI. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN THE
LONE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE LOW OVER N TX BY 00Z SAT. THE
OTHER MODELS ARE STILL FASTER...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT
OF THIS TROUGH. AS SUCH...COLD FRONT WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES. THIS MEANS THE FROPA WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z FRI
AND 00Z SAT WITH IT PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY 06Z SAT. THIS TIMING
IS ABOUT 6-12HRS SLOWER THAN THE FORECAST SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THIS NEW FRONTAL TIMING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS BASED ON A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
AND THE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST PASSING SO NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INSTEAD OF 20 ABOVE NORMAL LIKE
TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BOTH SUN AND MON MORNINGS COULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE MAY ACTUALLY BE MON WITH NEAR CALM WINDS.
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP MON NIGHT AND TUE.The cockroach cap is depriving us of much needed rain and made us warm and deprived us the total lunar eclipse.
They ought to make RAID that kills La Nina and capping inversion.
