Where does one find the scatter-shot ensemble plots?
Are you talking about on Tropical Tidbits?
Yes. There are ensemble renderings showing animated points to signify ensemble members (rather than straight lines). I’ve not been able to locate how to get those model/ensemble renderings
Oh, no problem, it’s easy.
1. Click on Forecast Models
2. Click on Ensembles
3. We’ll use the Euro (EPS) for an example so click on that
4. Click on Lower Dynamics
5. Then at the bottom of that column click on Ensemble Members MSLP
Yes. There are ensemble renderings showing animated points to signify ensemble members (rather than straight lines). I’ve not been able to locate how to get those model/ensemble renderings
Oh, no problem, it’s easy.
1. Click on Forecast Models
2. Click on Ensembles
3. We’ll use the Euro (EPS) for an example so click on that
4. Click on Lower Dynamics
5. Then at the bottom of that column click on Ensemble Members MSLP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located over South Carolina.
1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of low pressure could form in the central or western
tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week. Some development of this
system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during
the early to middle part of next week and moves generally
west-northwestward toward the Greater Antilles thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Debby brings widespread flooding northward
Tropical Storm Debby has come back ashore today near Bulls Bay, SC, which is just north of Charleston. It continues to slowly migrate inland and will lose wind intensity through the day. One thing it won't lose is moisture, and virtually all of east-central North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina is under a flood warning this morning. Just a huge spatial area of flash flood warnings.
Flash flood warnings in maroon cover a massive chunk of North Carolina, including Raleigh-Durham, the Triad, and Charlotte. Flood watches extend north up the Appalachians into Central and Northern New York.
That heavy rain will migrate northward today into Virginia, where a high risk of flooding (level 4/4) extends up through Roanoke, Blacksburg, Lynchburg, and Charlottesville.
A high risk (level 4/4) of flooding exists again today, this time from North Carolina into the Shenandoah Valley.
Heavy rain will expand north into Pennsylvania and New York as we go into tonight and tomorrow, as well as into Quebec. Basically, we're looking at 2 to 5 inches over a wide area, with isolated enhancement in the mountains of Virginia, where the flooding could be the worst. Everything should exit late tomorrow. Some additional heavy rain will be possible east of the this peak axis, but it will be a more manageable rain. Severe weather, including isolated tornadoes are possible too.
Peak totals will basically follow I-81 north into Upstate New York, with another maxima in the St. Lawrence Valley in Quebec, mainly east of Montreal.
And we'll say goodbye to Debby after this.
Next wave up is increasingly intriguing
As I noted yesterday, while modeling was mostly leaning toward the next wave not being a big deal, there was reason to watch it. It has indeed been added to the area of interest map today by the National Hurricane Center.
The next tropical wave to watch will arrive near the islands in 4 or 5 days and currently has about a 30 percent chance of development.
They open the bidding at 30 percent, but I truthfully think we'll see this increase some in the next day or two. This wave is going to have an interesting future. First off, development with this one will be slow. There is a lot of Saharan dust to contend with in the Atlantic, and there is no reason to think we see much of anything through the weekend. By the time we get to Monday, the wave should be approaching the Antilles. At this point, development may start to unfold slowly. But with high pressure basically in control from the Bahamas into Texas, this system will probably be cut off from "feeling" the tug of a trough in New England initially.
A slowly developing tropical system is likely to move into the islands and/or Caribbean early next week.
From this point, it becomes a bit of a fight. If this system struggles a bit, it will stay suppressed, likely south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This means it may miss its ride out to sea from the deepening New England trough. However, if development starts moving along more aggressively, we will likely see this system gain latitude toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola or to the north, making it more likely to ultimately be captured by the New England trough and sent north. Additionally, the specific location and strength of the trough and areas of high pressure will play a big role too. It's far too early to say how this ballet will play out, but I have to admit, the model data today was a little more sluggish with the pull north, which starts creeping this system a little farther west than we'd care to see.
In terms of timing, impacts will arrive in the islands early to mid next week, and if they come west toward Cuba, the Bahamas, or Florida, it would be late next week. Any risk to the Gulf, if any, is unlikely before at least next weekend. We have a lot of time to watch.
Additional waves may try to get going off Africa around the 20th, but we'll see.
Herzog said la nina is delayed for another month or so so la nada could persist into even october, thats not good news for texas potentially, normally in october we dont need to worry about tropical impacts, but la nada throws a big wrench into that, we got a LONG ways to go this season
Debby on the way out
Debby, no longer a tropical storm, is exiting to the north today, but not before leaving more destruction in its wake. Several flash flood emergencies are ongoing in Pennsylvania and New York this afternoon as Debby's rains lead to damaging flooding, including reports of rooftop rescues and numerous trapped people in Westfield, PA.
Debby's remnants lifting through Upstate New York this afternoon.
Debby's remnants will move into Canada and bring more flooding rain, with rainfall warnings hoisted for much of southern Quebec and parts of New Brunswick as well. Portions of northern Vermont, very vulnerable to rainfall are also under a flood watch as Debby's rains move that way. Isolated tornadoes are possible as well.
Watching the next wave's development odds increase
As I noted yesterday, I felt that the 30 percent odds of development from the next Atlantic wave were going to increase. A little over 24 hours later, and those odds are now doubled up to 60 percent.
The next tropical wave is up to 60 percent odds of development by next week.
The tropical wave itself is not much to look at today, just an area of clouds, showers, and thunderstorms in an otherwise rather dusty Atlantic. You can see it east of the islands on the satellite image below.
The next wave looks disorganized but holding thunderstorm activity as it rambles west across the Atlantic.
The first thing I can tell you about this one is that we do not expect any development probably before later Monday. So we have a couple days yet before this gets started. So for folks in the islands, this will probably not be bearing down on you as a big storm; it will probably just be getting organized as it arrives. Whatever the case, by Monday, we have a tropical wave on the cusp of organization, arriving just east of the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands.
The tropical wave will be arriving near the islands on Monday afternoon or evening, just likely beginning the process of development.
From here, the ballet begins. High pressure over the Southern U.S. and Texas, a trough digging into New England, and high pressure in the Atlantic will compete as this wave develops to help steer it. The current majority of modeling suggests this will develop steadily enough that it will probably go north in the islands and eventually into the open Atlantic. However, given that we're about 6 days or so out from that happening and the inherent uncertainty from an undeveloped system, we can't say much for sure. Here's what we can tell you today:
The tropical wave is unlikely to develop before Monday.
Development may occur steadily, if not rapidly as the system enters the Caribbean or grazes the northeast Caribbean next week.
While the model consensus suggests an eventual north turn well off the East Coast, it is far too early to say much about this system's future track.
A Gulf of Mexico track is unlikely at this time but not an impossibility.
I feel like when storms have had an opportunity to come a little farther west than expected this season, they've found a way, so I don't want to write this off for Florida or the East Coast just yet. Right now, folks in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should be watching this system closely, as once it gets going, it could start organizing fairly quickly. Beyond that, stay tuned this weekend for the latest. We'll have another update for you on Sunday.
Cpv17 I greatly suspect they aren’t seeing the effects of the MJO passage thats about to occur , once that occurs im pretty confident we are going to be seeing a different tone in the models lol
I am not buying the ensembles showing almost nothing after this waves moves on out, MJO goes into phases 2-3 in the atlantic, the globals and ensembles are both doing an absolutely terrible job of seeing this progression, I think we are going to see more areas of interest pop up in the coming days despite ensembles showing nothing
Impacts in the islands from Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 should be mostly manageable as it passes through
By Matt Lanza on August 12, 2024
Headlines
Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 will slowly organize itself over the next 2-3 days as it crosses into the northeast Caribbean islands and Puerto Rico.
PTC 5 is expected to deliver mostly modest impacts to the islands, with gusty winds, rough marine conditions, and heavy rainfall.
As PTC 5 comes north in the Atlantic, it will strengthen and may ultimately threaten Bermuda.
Quieter conditions should continue behind PTC 5.
PTC 5 will slowly get itself together
Potential Tropical Cyclone #5 was declared on Sunday, which allows the National Hurricane Center to issue watches and warnings before a storm becomes an actual storm. In other words, we are expecting a tropical depression or tropical storm soon although it's not there yet, but we need to get warnings out. Thus, the slightly cumbersome PTC language.
PTC #5 forecast track as of Monday morning showing a tropical storm in the islands and a hurricane to the north.
Whatever the case, we are definitely expecting this system to gradually organize as it moves into the islands. If there's good news today, it's that models continue to slow walk development initially, despite the fairly warm water across the northeast Caribbean. So a slow transformation into a tropical storm is expected in the next 24 hours. By tomorrow morning, we expect Ernesto and its center to be just west of Guadeloupe. Tropical storm warnings are in effect between Guadeloupe and Puerto Rico.
It would appear on satellite that PTC 5 is battling a good deal of wind shear. It's not quite consolidating, and while it has a lot of thunderstorm activity overall, it's generally disorganized.
PTC 5 is loaded with thunderstorms, but at least on satellite it appears to be fairly disorganized, lacking the consolidation needed to be classified as a tropical storm at this point.
Modeling suggests that over then next 24 hours or so we won't see a whole lot of change to this. In that time, we should see PTC's nascent center move into the northeastern Leeward Islands. While certainly a bit breezy and with some heavy rain, impacts there will probably fall short of anything too terribly serious. Around that time, we should begin to see PTC 5 begin to make a run toward a little organization as it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico heading into the 36-48 hour timeframe. This system's size seems to make it unlikely to become a hurricane now as it moves into that area.
PTC 5 should only slowly organize as it moves past the Leeward Islands and into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
So at this point all signs seem to indicate that PTC 5 will only slowly organize as it impacts the northeast Caribbean islands and Puerto Rico, staying under hurricane intensity until it gets comfortably north of Puerto Rico. The islands should again prepare for heavy rain and gusty winds, as well as rough marine conditions, but overall this looks like a mainly modest impact to these locations.
Rain totals from PTC 5 should be around 4 to 6 inches, though higher amounts are likely in portions of Puerto Rico and on Vieques.
Beyond this point, PTC 5 will continue to likely curve northwest and northward, splitting the gap between high pressure over the Deep South and high pressure east of Bermuda. From here, we have two key questions: How strong does this storm get, and how close will it get to Bermuda? We can't answer either one with a lot of certainty yet, but it's pretty evident that this will be a very close call near Bermuda. We have a couple days to iron that aspect out.
In terms of intensity, the tropical models are all over the place, but they all show steady strengthening it appears.
Intensity guidance among the various models is very much all over the place, but in general shows steady intensification in the day 2 to 5 timeframe, suggesting PTC 5 will become a hurricane between the Caribbean and possibly Bermuda.
The NHC forecast is a fine place to be right now, which shows PTC 5 on the cusp of major hurricane intensity by day 5. So because of all this, it would be important for folks in Bermuda to monitor the progress of PTC 5/Ernesto closely. We'll keep you posted.
Beyond PTC 5, we continue to see the Atlantic basically shut itself down for the next 7 to 10 days. Don't get too excited about that quieter period, but let's just say during a hurricane season like this that has a lot going for it, that is a very welcome thing in August.
Cpv17 Im expecting that to change, Id say in about a week we will probably be seeing the models change their tune, right now its actually not wave breaking thats hurting the waves behind 98L , its the saharan air, still a lot of it choking off these waves, thats why models arent showing anything, that being said i wouldnt be the very least surprised to see something pop up closer to home in the coming weeks ahead, MJO stays in a favorable position in the atlantic through the first few weeks of september, also a CCKW is also forecast to enter the atlantic during the last week of august , these season cancellation folks are going to be in for a rude awakening lol
