January 2022

[mcheer23]

Higher confidence south of I-10

[DoctorMu]

Bizarre to see Victoria and Austin in the Wintry mix zone and College Station out.

[Kingwood36]

Higher confidence south of I-10

I'll be damn...going to my mom's house in Brazoria lol

[Stratton20]

Will see, not completely giving up hope in CS, fingers crossed the disturbance comes in stronger and temps are colder than forecasted

[Cpv17]

Looks like my location might get more action than anyone else on this board.

[Kingwood36]

Looks like my location might get more action than anyone else on this board.

Not so fast..I can go to angleton, brazoria,sweeny,baycity...lol ALL over..

[Cpv17]

Looks like my location might get more action than anyone else on this board.

Not so fast..I can go to angleton, brazoria,sweeny,baycity...lol ALL over..

I think there’s a decent chance Wharton County will at least get an advisory.

[walsean1]

The forecast is forever changing. Funny to see it forecast to be colder in the Valley than in the Southeast part of Texas since we are North technically of the Texas Valley area. We are still about 36 hours out so like Jeff Linder suggested is that a few degrees difference can cause major issue with people who would attempt to travel because roads seem to be ok which would concern me

[Kingwood36]

Looks like my location might get more action than anyone else on this board.

Not so fast..I can go to angleton, brazoria,sweeny,baycity...lol ALL over..

I think there’s a decent chance Wharton County will at least get an advisory.

I think wharton,Matagorda..and I see no reason why brazoria shouldn't be added ...but that's just me

[jasons2k]

Meanwhile....

Mesoscale Discussion 0086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Texas...northwestern
Louisiana...southeastern Arkansas and adjacent portions of western
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191753Z - 192030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is
expected to initiate through 2-4 PM CST, accompanied at least
initially by a risk for severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Southwesterly low-level return flow continues across
the northwestern Gulf coast region through the lower Mississippi
Valley. It appears that this still includes a 30-35 kt speed
maximum around the 850 mb level east-northeast of the Ark-La-Tex
through the the northwestern Mississippi Delta region. However,
this jet is forecast to shift northeastward across the Tennessee
Valley through late afternoon, with low-level wind fields trailing
toward the northwest Gulf coast gradually weakening and beginning to
veer.

Even so, modest low-level moisture return has occurred across
southeastern Texas through the Piney Woods/Sabine Valley vicinity.
Although initially mostly elevated above at least a shallow
relatively cool/dry near-surface layer, the boundary layer is
warming, moistening and deepening with daytime heating. As this
continues through mid to late afternoon, mixed-layer CAPE may exceed
1000 J/kg.

Beneath a 50 kt west-southwesterly jet streak around the 500 mb
level, in advance of a low amplitude wave, the environment appears
likely to become increasingly conducive to vigorous thunderstorm
development. Based on latest model output, the initiation of
scattered thunderstorm development appears possible as early as
19-22Z, near/north of the Greater Houston area, north-northeastward
toward areas near/east of Shreveport. This would be focused along
the corridor of deeper low-level moistening, just east of a plume of
warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air (between
850-700 mb). This probably will include the evolution of supercell
structures, which may pose a risk to produce (primarily) severe hail
through late afternoon.

..Kerr/Grams.. 01/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

[Cpv17]

Not so fast..I can go to angleton, brazoria,sweeny,baycity...lol ALL over..

I think there’s a decent chance Wharton County will at least get an advisory.

I think wharton,Matagorda..and I see no reason why brazoria shouldn't be added ...but that's just me

I think Brazoria County should get added to it if it does happen.

[tireman4]

Jason is right, we have to get through the potential severe before we get to the potential P-Type event.

[Iceresistance]

Jason is right, we have to get through the potential severe before we get to the potential P-Type event.

There is a Slight Risk for Houston today.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191751
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1151 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs continue to persist ahead of the
approach of a surface cold front this afternoon/evening. Initial
SHRA/TSRA development ahead of the boundary has started to the
southwest of the Houston metro over the past hour, and additional
coverage is expected through the remainder of the afternoon as the
front begins to push through the area. A few storms may become
strong to severe and produce strong wind gusts. Have maintained
VCTS/VCSH wording for now with scattered coverage expected ahead
of the main line along the front. As the boundary pushes offshore
by around 06Z, gusty north winds will develop in its wake with
some locations seeing gusts as high as 30 knots. MVFR cigs will
develop overnight at most locations and persist into the day
tomorrow.

Cady

[DoctorMu]

Jason is right, we have to get through the potential severe before we get to the potential P-Type event.

There is a Slight Risk for Houston today.

Houston to Hemphill line and NE into LA

[Stratton20]

It appears below normal temps could stick around for the next 7-10 days! Some models show a warm up after that but no blow torch pattern in sight!

[DoctorMu]

Jason is right, we have to get through the potential severe before we get to the potential P-Type event.

There is a Slight Risk for Houston today.

Houston to Hemphill line and NE into LA

Cells really starting to develop now.

[don]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 16
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
105 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far southern Arkansas
Western to northern Louisiana
East and southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM
until 700 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A continued increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected
through early evening. Wind profiles should become more favorable
for a few supercells and potential clusters, posing a primary threat
of hail and wind.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Monroe LA to 10 miles west southwest of Galveston TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.

...Grams

[tireman4]

Be on the lookout for Discret Supercells...

[tireman4]

The Supercell ( for those who are unfamiliar with the term)