September 2019 - Warm End of September

[jasons2k]

Visible Meso Imagery focused over the NW Gulf is beginning to suggest a bit of spin and possibly a weak surface low developing offshore of The Upper Texas/SW Louisiana Coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Looks at the edge of the clouds on satellite. You could remove the land masses from the image, draw a line along the edge of the clouds, and you’d have a map of the coast from Corpus all the way past Panama City.

[unome]

so many more options for weather watching now, than even 5 years ago & constantly improving

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/

https://nowcoast.noaa.gov/

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr/lsr.php

http://map.blitzortung.org/#6.53/29.499/-94.83

[unome]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 9235500032

Still can't sleep on the gulf disturbance, which has an elliptical but closed circulation.

Slow movement expected, and it may be Tues night before it comes ashore, so a quick TS is not out of the question.

Regardless, lots of rain coming. 6+ inches forecast along coastal TX.

[jasons2k]

Looks like it’s closing off to me.

[jerryh421]

Anyone check the 12z NAM? Wow. Just adds to the Euro and CMC.

[TexasBreeze]

Theres still seems to be some dry air to overcome around here. Hardly a cloud in the sky. We're on the dry side of the low so far. The rain bands will take time to get inland and may have to wait till it we get on the wet side of it to rain. The increasing model support for 10 + in of rain is getting harder to ignore though.

[brooksgarner]

Are you guys seeing the QPF being pumped out on these NAM/GEM/EURO solutions? Wowza

[Cromagnum]

Link to the NAM etc for those of us that dont know where to get the graphics?

[Texashawk]

I’m sorry to be the voice if moderation, but “I’ll believe it when I see it” feels about right. Really hoping for some rain in Mo City, though. My lawn is gasping.

[mcheer23]

Link to the NAM etc for those of us that dont know where to get the graphics?

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... 91612&fh=1

[srainhoutx]

24 inch amounts across portions of SE Texas via the 12km NAM 12Z over a 84 hour period.

[Tx2005]

24 inch amounts across portions of SE Texas via the 12km NAM 12Z over a 84 hour period.

That’s concerning :/

[brooksgarner]

NAM joins EURO showing silly rainfall amounts run to run... but this is also dependent on if this thing develops into a tropical cyclone... just models, but interesting that GEM/NAM/EURO all bullish for flooding totals. Hope it doesn't happen but when it's doing this 4 days out it's a red flag and not to be written off. We all have an optimism/normalcy bias and that definitely influences long-range forecasts. This time of year, plan for the worst but hope for the best. Maybe it'll only be 4"-6"... we hope! Rain is needed, just not all at once.

nam-tx-total_precip_inch-8937600.png

[Texashawk]

Model feedback issues, perhaps? Just doesn’t seem realistic! Any Mets care to chime in? I mean, if this is true, it’ll be a devastating flooding event but the various news channels seem to be taking an “eeehhh, it’s something to watch’ but not too concerned on the whole.

[Cromagnum]

Heard a mention here and there about a core rain event potentially being the cause for all the rain. How strong does a tropical system have to be in order for a core rain event to even happen? I thought this was more typical when a strong storm comes ashore and dumps all at once as it weakens.

[stormlover]

I still think there is going to be a lot of tough forecast with this

[sau27]

If I hadn't already seen the Euro I'd give it a hearty "LOL NAM". But I have, so I can't

[BlueJay]

We have many Texas counties with a burn ban. Rain is needed.

[don]

12z GFS is getting onboard also

[stormlover]

Gfs slowly getting on board finally dang that model is bad