July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Kingwood36]

[#NerdTweet] Dry air punch & shear from the north doing a number on #Barry's northern half, but now southern convection is important for track.Watch for whether SW quad or SE quad convection dominates next 12 hours. Diabatic vorticity tendency absolutely could nudge the vortex. pic.twitter.com/TZycZL95EB
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) July 11, 2019

Meaning the track could change again?

[tireman4]

Well, who knows. I still think everything is up in the air..there are pros that say yes and there are pros that say no. Interesting times..

[tireman4]

[#NerdTweet] Nowcasting this afternoon involves watching the next meso-vortex to rotate down into the southern semicircle. The last one did not get anchored to any deep convection & amplify. If the next one does, it could precede intensification and/or a SW tug on the circulation pic.twitter.com/abAVAJ9QZs
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) July 11, 2019

[djmike]

Cameron Parish issues a "Voluntary order of evacuation" for all areas south of the Intercoastal Waterway as of 12pm 7/11/19.

[tireman4]

Opinion from a pro at S2K ..we all respect...maybe..just maybe the UKMET was onto something as South Texas Storms ( another pro met..on here and at S2K) states..

Unread postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:49 pm

Recon flew threw previous center fixes and se to east winds.. so new center is somewhere to the west.. or maybe the larger vort will rotate down and take all the rotational every with it and take hold farther south into convection. If it does add in the fact the trough is no longer digging and barry is in a classic CoL situation would start leading to the ukmet solution.

[djmike]

If this happens, I will have a LOT of respect for the UK! I have stuck with it from day 1...well, Monday.

[srainhoutx]

Pretty decent flare up of convection along the West and SW quadrant of the broad surface low. You can see one of the meso vorts being tugged WSW fairly well on visible imagery.

[Rip76]

Pretty decent flare up of convection along the West and SW quadrant of the broad surface low. You can see one of the meso vorts being tugged WSW fairly well on visible imagery.

Can you post the link to this?

[srainhoutx]

Pretty decent flare up of convection along the West and SW quadrant of the broad surface low. You can see one of the meso vorts being tugged WSW fairly well on visible imagery.

Can you post the link to this?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[tireman4]

And as we speak...the models are still trying to figure this out...again..for entertainment purposes only

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

[davidiowx]

And as we speak...the models are still trying to figure this out...again..for entertainment purposes only

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

Looks like that initialized a decent distance east of where the center currently is.. Perhaps that would have a little further west landfall?

[tireman4]

Boy at this point, who knows David. Maybe Steve and Andrew can answer that better than I can....

[Pas_Bon]

Will Saskatchewan see any effects on its current forecasted track??

[tireman4]

Interesting big blob right off our shore..


https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1322/dJJxer.png

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.AVIATION...
Near-term models are still indicating the development of isolated
to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms across parts of the CWA
later this afternoon. Best lift/convergence should be near/closer
to the coast, but did leave the mention of VCTS in for sites from
IAH southward. Any activity that does form should be brief and is
expected to die down around sunset. While not ruling out any more
surprises from the north, did keep with VFR conditions tonight as
the mostly light N/NW flow prevails. 41

&&

[Rip76]

Pretty decent flare up of convection along the West and SW quadrant of the broad surface low. You can see one of the meso vorts being tugged WSW fairly well on visible imagery.

Can you post the link to this?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Awesome, Thank you.

[sau27]

Noticing that the center swirl just interected with outflow from the MCS blob off to the west and just blew up some new towers. Don't know what it means for the system (if it will help it grow or choke it). But fun to watch

[Texaspirate11]

UKMET still hellbent on our area...

[Andrew]

What is so interesting to me about the GFS ensembles is the majority of them no longer rotate north and instead continue on a NW path. A very interesting trend that we will have to watch for later this afternoon.

[tireman4]

UKMET still hellbent on our area...

It is either onto something or it is on something..