February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[redneckweather]

Big time poundage here near Lake Conroe Dam around 5 with high winds, Allisonesque rain and loss of power till 30 minutues ago. Very nice.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail update from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall moving SE of the area late this morning.

Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches were recorded over much of the area. This rainfall on saturated grounds has led to significant rises on area creeks and some creeks have exceeded their banks.

In Fort Bend County:

Big Creek at Needville: Creek is overbanks and rising rapidly. Forecast show the creek rising to near moderate flood levels this afternoon.

Bessie Creek near Richmond: Creek is overbanks threatening homes around Pecan Grove along FM 359. This is an ungaged creek and no forecast are available. Law enforcement is reporting several roads near the creek are flooded and impassable.

Significant rises are also ongoing on the San Bernard River at East Bernard and Boling, but RFC forecast show the river not reaching flood stage at this time. Will need to re-evaluate this again this afternoon.

In Harris County:

Most creeks and bayous are within banks and starting to fall.

Will be keeping a close eye on the W Fork of the San Jacinto River at Humble (US 59) due to the large amounts of inflow coming from upstream.

Upper low is over SW TX and moving ENE with showers near the center. Could see additional rainfall develop this afternoon, but chances are on the lower side. However any additional rainfall will be direct run-off and result in additional rises on area creeks and rivers.

I must say that the models preformed very well on the rainfall placement and warm front movement with their hammering of the US 59 corridor, which is pretty close to what happened.

Rainfall Totals Overnight:

[mckinne63]

Poor fellas at NWS, forgetting what day it is...

EXTENDED THE FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 3 PM. ALSO AM EXPECTING SOME DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
BACK UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME BIG ISSUES WITH
THE STREET FLOODING.

Unless you work on Sunday Are we expecting mroe rain this evening?

[wxman57]

No more rain. Should be sunny tomorrow.

[Ptarmigan]

The forecast was that right in terms of rain amount. In a way it was a bust that it underestimated the severity of the storms and we had severe thunderstorm warning. Those thunder claps woke me up. Otherwise, the forecast was spot on in terms of rain and time.

[sambucol]

No more rain. Should be sunny tomorrow.

I am looking forward to a sunny day

[Katdaddy]

That makes 3 of us....mid 60s and sunny will be wonderful. This afternoon's HOU-GAL AFD suggest 80F temps are possible mid-week:

THINGS LOOK TO REALLY WARM UP INTO THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD AS SFC
WINDS BECOME SW/W AND DEWPOINTS FALL. NUDGED TEMPS UP A BIT BUT
HAVE A FEELING WE MAY NEED TO GO QUITE A BIT HIGHER (INTO THE 80S) IF
FCST TRENDS CONTINUE.

[jeff]

I picked up 3.03 overnight and this morning and .38 yesterday afternoon for a storm total of 3.41 inches in Richmond. Given the amount of water on the ground along HWY 90 near HWY 99 I would think there was some 4+ inches in the area of central/east Fort Bend County has suggested by the radar. Several creeks out here had not been this high since the April 18, 2009 event.

[redneckweather]

Well it looks like the parade of storm systems we have been experiencing since January has come to a screeching halt. It looks like chamber of commerce weather for the entire upcoming week and into the weekend. I will temporarily take it...at least in my parts. I'm not sure where my area stands on the drought monitor but I can guarantee you it is not in a drought anymore. I can't even walk my back pasture, unless I want to sink up to my knees in mud and all the area ponds that were just about bone dry are all over flowing. What a huge change from just 5 months ago and very unexpected. I thought it would take a year or two for us to climb out of this drought, not a short 5 months!

With this in mind, a good chunk of Texas is still hurting bad for rain and are still very drought stricken. Hopefully the next few storm systems are able to cross over those areas instead of down this way.

Also, there doesn't seem to be any bone chilling cold air to end the month of February as previously thought. With the sunny skies and warming temps next week, Spring will show itself across our area of southeast Texas. Hopefully the warm weather next week will dry the ground out some so I can get the ground prepped for planting my Spring garden.

[srainhoutx]

What an absolutely gorgeous day out, and these type of days have been extremely few and far between since January. I hope everyone can get out and enjoy the sunshine and be thankful that those forecasts of a 'hot and dry winter' have failed miserably and that we have made a remarkable recovery in our ongoing 3 year drought.

[mckinne63]

What an absolutely gorgeous day out, and these type of days have been extremely few and far between since January. I hope everyone can get out and enjoy the sunshine and be thankful that those forecasts of a 'hot and dry winter' have failed miserably and that we have made a remarkable recovery in our ongoing 3 year drought.

I give today a two thumbs up! Beautiful day, windows are open. Nice to air out the house. Thank goodness the forecast for a hot and dry winter was wrong! I suppose it is too early for guesses on what the summer will bring.

[sambucol]

What an absolutely gorgeous day out, and these type of days have been extremely few and far between since January. I hope everyone can get out and enjoy the sunshine and be thankful that those forecasts of a 'hot and dry winter' have failed miserably and that we have made a remarkable recovery in our ongoing 3 year drought.

I give today a two thumbs up! Beautiful day, windows are open. Nice to air out the house. Thank goodness the forecast for a hot and dry winter was wrong! I suppose it is too early for guesses on what the summer will bring.

or what the 2012 hurricane season brings.

[Ptarmigan]

What an absolutely gorgeous day out, and these type of days have been extremely few and far between since January. I hope everyone can get out and enjoy the sunshine and be thankful that those forecasts of a 'hot and dry winter' have failed miserably and that we have made a remarkable recovery in our ongoing 3 year drought.

I am glad the winter forecast is a bust.

[South_Texas_Storms]

What an absolutely gorgeous day out, and these type of days have been extremely few and far between since January. I hope everyone can get out and enjoy the sunshine and be thankful that those forecasts of a 'hot and dry winter' have failed miserably and that we have made a remarkable recovery in our ongoing 3 year drought.

I am glad the winter forecast is a bust.

Me too. I am very thankful.

[Katdaddy]

Setting on the back deck enjoying mostly sunny skies and 64F temp........weather perfection. A Spring-like week ahead.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

After a very active Friday and Saturday the active pattern of late that has delivered frequent and widespread heavy rainfalls will calm down some this week. Progressive upper pattern will continue, but Gulf moisture will have a hard time not only returning, but deepening over the region which will limit rain chances. There will be a chance of rainfall (slight) Wednesday into Thursday mainly along the coast and offshore and then possibly over much of the area late Thursday but it is expected to be light. Next strong cold front will cross the area Thursday night, but before then temperatures will rise steadily during the afternoon hours into the mid to upper 70’s by Wed-Thurs. May start to see some sea fog issues over the coastal locations by this evening as moist air mass flows over the cooler near shore waters. A fairly quite week overall compared to the last several.

Hydro:

Rivers continue to respond to the heavy rainfall from this weekend.

San Bernard River:

At East Bernard:
Stage: 17.82 ft
Flood Stage: 17.0 ft
Forecast: River has started to fall this morning and should fall below flood stage today.

At Boling:
Stage: 16.92 ft
Flood Stage: 18.0 ft
Forecast: River crested at 20.5 ft Sunday and is falling and should continue a steady fall.

Brazos River:
The river is above action stage at Bryan, Hempstead, and Richmond. At all forecast points the river is not expected to reach flood stage.

Trinity River:
The river is rising and above action stage at Liberty and Moss Bluff, but is not forecast to reach flood stage at either point.

Colorado River:
The river is above action stage at Wharton, but is not forecast to reach flood stage.

[redneckweather]

Well it's pretty obvious that deep winter for us here in Southeast Texas has come and gone with no signs of anything significant coming down the pipe. With March just around the corner, we are through with winter with maybe a moderate front here and there (mid 30's for Conroe for lows). It's been a fun ride for the month of February. Hopefully we will have some cold air to work with next winter.


TILL NEXT WINTER!!!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Now its on to the boring part of the year.... Spring has a few surprises, but late Spring and Summer suck terribly.

[wxman57]

Ah, spring and summer - my favorite time of the year (summer in particular). Just 9 more days until March (really, just 8 days but it's a leap year). Good news is that spring/summer start a day earlier due to that leap year.

I'm fairly sure that we've seen our last freeze at IAH. Probably another 10-20 freezes at Conroe, though. Time to get that spring garden in the ground. Tomatoes won't set fruit once nighttime temps rise above 72 (late May/early June), and it takes about 2 months for tomato plants to mature enough to produce fruit. I hate tomatoes, by the way.

Still need an 81 degree high before the end of the month to take the lead in our office forecast contest...

[srainhoutx]

Friday is the arrival day for the trail riders. The 00Z WRF NMM suggests wet weather possible with a pesky upper low to our SW. We will see.