February Ends Warm and Dry

[wxman57]

Well, about time to throw in the flag.. Winter is over.
Hopefully one last late season cold front before the 80s and 90s return

We'll probably have another 7-10 cold fronts before the 80s/90s are here to stay in late April or early May.

[Baseballdude2915]

Well, about time to throw in the flag.. Winter is over.
Hopefully one last late season cold front before the 80s and 90s return

We'll probably have another 7-10 cold fronts before the 80s/90s are here to stay in late April or early May.

Hopefully that many. With La Nina I'm kinda worried we wont see the 30's again until next season. Anything but the 90s works though.

[wxman57]

Well, about time to throw in the flag.. Winter is over.
Hopefully one last late season cold front before the 80s and 90s return

We'll probably have another 7-10 cold fronts before the 80s/90s are here to stay in late April or early May.

Hopefully that many. With La Nina I'm kinda worried we wont see the 30's again until next season. Anything but the 90s works though.

Though I'd take 100 degrees over the 30s any day, I think IAH may see another light freeze or two before the end of March. There are some indications of some cold air coming down at the end of February. Could see low-mid 30s here by March 1st.

[sleetstorm]

Those two strong arctic cold fronts did a good number on a good portion of the Gulf of Mexico, huh? The strong icy wind also good toll on the Gulf's sea surface temperatures as well.

[Andrew]

Those two strong arctic cold fronts did a good number on a good portion of the Gulf of Mexico, huh? The strong icy wind also good toll on the Gulf's sea surface temperatures as well.

Winter has really cooled off water temps near the coast. Also check out the Max Pot. winds. While we are not even close to Hurricane season it is interesting to note the coast around here couldn't even support TD winds (or lower than a 1000mb low for that matter)

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

CLIMATE...
THE RECENT COLD SPELL IS COMING TO A CLOSE. THE AVERAGE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FEB 1 THRU FEB 11 WAS THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED...
SHATTERING THE PREVIOUS COLDEST TEMPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
NORMAL AVERAGE LOW FOR HOUSTON IS AROUND 43 DEGREES...47 DEGREES FOR
HOBBY AIRPORT AND AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR GALVESTON.

                       FEB 1 THRU FEB 11 AVG TEMPS

   HOUSTON               GALVESTON       HOU HOBBY

   26.5 2011             32.5 2011       29.8 2011
   31.0 1895             35.5 1895       34.6 1947
   32.4 1985             37.2 1985       35.6 1978
   34.5 1978             38.3 1905       36.8 1979
   34.5 1972             38.5 1978       36.9 1985

   NUMBER OF DAYS WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 DEGREES IN FEBRUARY

   HOUSTON               GALVESTON        HOU HOBBY

   12  1895              9  1895          8  2011
   11  2011              7  2011          6  1989
    9  1978              5  1899          6  1951
    8  1899              4  1989          5  1960
    8  1894              4  1951          4  1996

ALL TIME NUMBER OF DAYS (IN A MONTH) WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW 32 DEGREES

HOUSTON      19 - JANUARY 1978
GALVESTON    10 - JANUARY 1940
HOU HOBBY    18 - JANUARY 1940

This February is challenging and at times beats February 1895, 1899, and 1978 and they were notorious in their own right. 1895 had snow, 1899 was brutally cold, and 1978 was the coldest winter on record for Southeast Texas. This February even beats 1989, which was freezing for 5 days!

[Baseballdude2915]

Though I'd take 100 degrees over the 30s any day, I think IAH may see another light freeze or two before the end of March. There are some indications of some cold air coming down at the end of February. Could see low-mid 30s here by March 1st.

I am a rider too. I mountain bike down here at Jack Brooks in Hitchcock. I dont know how you do 100 degrees on the bike. It kills me. But with the cold, after two or three miles, I'm pretty warm even with temps in the 30s.

[Ptarmigan]

Though I'd take 100 degrees over the 30s any day, I think IAH may see another light freeze or two before the end of March. There are some indications of some cold air coming down at the end of February. Could see low-mid 30s here by March 1st.

I notice that there is a freeze in March, sometimes a cold one like in 1989 and 2002.

[srainhoutx]

Quiet weather pattern continues. It looks like the cap will remain strong, therefore little chance of thunderstorms. There are hints that we may see a front near the end of the month. The ensembles continue to advertise a return of a -NAO. We will see...

[wxman57]

Ah, I see we're back online now. Just got back from lunch. A beautiful 77 degrees at noon. Perhaps we'll hit 80+ for the first time this year! Time to hop on the bike this evening.

[TexasBreeze]

It did indeed reach 80' today at both IAH and Hooks airports! It has been great warm weather this week!

[wxman57]

It was great to see 80 degrees yesterday. Couldn't get out on the bikes until 5:30pm, though. By that time, it was too cool for shorts and short sleeve jerseys. It really needs to be in the 80s in the evening for that. But I'll take a daytime high of 80 any day in winter. Good riding day today then a trap shooting training session with Gil & Vicki Ash tomorrow morning. We have two teams entered in the MTS trap shooting tournament on March 5th. Hadn't shot in 30 years before a few weeks ago. Lots of fun.

Euro now completely backing off as far as next week's cold air. GFS and Canadian, too. They all rebuild that deep trof off the west coast with a ridge over Texas. Cold air in Canada just moves off to the east across the Great lakes. That's what would be expected with the pattern.

The GFS, which was forecasting lows in the low 40s for us next Fri/Sat is now forecasting lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 70s:



The pattern below would suggest no cold air here in Texas:

[srainhoutx]

Something to keep an eye on is a potent Spring like storm later next week into the weekend. The SPC is already mentioning severe weather chances in the extended period for next Wednesday/Thursday...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE...AND APPARENTLY UNPREDICTABLE PATTERN IS SETTING UP
BEGINNING AROUND TUE/D4 AS THE MODELS TRY TO HANDLE AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS BAJA CA AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH FORECAST TO SINK SWD...OR RETROGRADE...ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
AND WRN CONUS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A BROAD WSWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL ENCOMPASS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH/LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND ON TUE/D4. BEHIND THIS NE
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ERN STATES WITH GULF MOISTURE SHUNTED OFFSHORE.

BY WED/D5...THE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN STATES...AND A
RETURN FLOW BEGINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO TX WITH LOWER
TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH TX BY WED AFTERNOON.

FROM WED/D5 ONWARD IS WHERE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN BAJA CA
COAST BY 00Z THU...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
AZ/NM BORDER WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. IF THE LATTER SOLUTION OCCURS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND TX...AS
EARLY AS WED NIGHT...THEN SPREADING EWD ON THU WITH A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW. THE GFS...BEING MUCH
SLOWER...DEVELOPS A SEVERE THREAT ON LATE THU OVER OK/TX...WITH A
MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ON THUR AFFECTING THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.

WHILE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WED/D5 INTO THU/D6 FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INTRODUCE ANY OUTLOOK AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 02/19/2011

[Ptarmigan]

It was spring-like today, perfect weather for a chili cook-off. I got to see many of my friends.

[srainhoutx]

This morning the SPC has ramped up the potential for Severe Weather for parts of TX/OK/AR and points E. This may well be the first significant threat of the season as we move to closer to the end of February...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON THU/D5.

ON WED/D4...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM
NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA CA/SRN CA
COAST WED MORNING. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE ERN STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

BY THU MORNING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
NWRN TX OR CNTRL OK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 60F UP
TO THE LOW CENTER....AND UP TO A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD
ACROSS NRN OK/AR OR PERHAPS SRN MO. A SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND INTO
THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 00Z.

UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND A PLUME OF STEEP DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE WELL HANDLED
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THE CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT...RATHER THAN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. IN THIS SCENARIO...A
SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BY FRI/D6...A SEVERE THREAT OF SOME FORM MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN SEABOARD...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND PREDICTABILITY BECOME TOO LOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 02/20/2011

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be an interesting week this week.

[srainhoutx]

A bit of a change ahead in the pattern that we've experienced the past week. While we've warmed up and fog certainly was an issue this past week, we look to be heading into a bit of a progressive flow with a cool front tomorrow that will change our surface winds to the N and W. The front will retreat quickly on Tuesday as a return flow of the Gulf establishes. Yet another front will enter the area near Thursday as a stronger storm passes to our N. This storm may well spawn the first significant severe weather event of the season. In fact, I would not be surprised to see at least a Moderate Risk for areas of OK and perhaps parts of N TX and points E. That front and storm system may well bring our first shot at some rain for our area in a while. A third and perhaps the strongest front of the trio will enter the area next weekend (likely late Sunday/early Monday). There are hints of some colder air after the first of March, but that would likely be another Topic and a new month.

[wxman666]

When will day 4 be released?

[srainhoutx]

When will day 4 be released?

About 3 hours ago.




(Or 6 hours after you inquired...)

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011

VALID 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY ON THU/D4 FROM
ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR...SRN MO...NRN MS...CNTRL AND
WRN KY AND TN...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO FRI/D5 ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THU WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING FROM ROUGHLY OK AT 12Z TO MO/AR BY 00Z. AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING LOW...A RELATIVELY WIDE MOIST/WARM SECTOR WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. STRONG FORCING
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE
PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY STRONG WINDS
IN ADDITION TO HAIL.

THE GREATEST THREAT AREA ON THU WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND JUST S OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LATEST ITERATION OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MUCH OF AR...SRN MO...FAR NRN MS...AND MUCH OF WRN KY AND
TN.

SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
FRI/D5...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. AS
SUCH...THE EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT FRI WILL LIKELY BE COMPRISED OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE COLD FRONT AND A
STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF STORMS...FROM THE DELMARVA SWD ACROSS VA.
THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...AND
WOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED...BUT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
FALL/RISE COUPLET WOULD ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE.

AFTER THE D4 TO D5 TIME FRAME...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE RAPIDLY.

..JEWELL.. 02/21/2011

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a possible squall line moving into SE TX Thursday evening.