Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 11:00 pmIt's about timeMontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 10:56 pm Hold down the fort! I’m headed to Omaha for a national championship!
Good luck sir.
Thank you sir!
June 2024
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Thank you sir!
Team #NeverSummer
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 10:56 pm Hold down the fort! I’m headed to Omaha for a national championship!
Boooo!
Geaux Tigers
Kidding. But not
Good luck
It’s y’all’s year
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Y’all have done it plenty! Thank you though.Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2024 12:00 amMontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 10:56 pm Hold down the fort! I’m headed to Omaha for a national championship!
Boooo!
Geaux Tigers
Kidding. But not
Good luck
It’s y’all’s year
Team #NeverSummer
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
The big suck is coming, unfortunately ensembles are in good agreement on a heat ridge becoming parked over the state down the road, enjoy the rain while it lasted, because it looks like the faucet may be getting shut down for some time
UghhhhStratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2024 12:10 am The big suck is coming, unfortunately ensembles are in good agreement on a heat ridge becoming parked over the state down the road, enjoy the rain while it lasted, because it looks like the faucet may be getting shut down for some time
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
684
FXUS64 KHGX 201124
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
As I begin typing this AFD, the center of Tropical Storm Alberto
is approaching the coast of Mexico, south of Tampico. But as most
of you already know, Alberto`s winds, rains, and enhanced tides
extend well to the north of the center. Live cameras and water
level gauges show that saltwater inundation is already occurring
along the coast. Coastal flooding impacts during high tide today
will likely be similar to yesterday. Many low-lying coastal roads
will become unpassable again. Ferry services may experience
additional disruptions. As Alberto pushes inland over Mexico, the
steep gradient over the Gulf responsible for the large fetch of
easterly winds should begin to slowly relax. This will result in a
gradual decline in the winds and a decreasing risk of coastal
flooding. That being said, water levels will remain above average
through the weekend and we cannot rule out minor coastal flooding
during high tide on Friday. Current model guidance suggests water
levels will remain just below Coastal Flood Advisory criteria on
Friday. But it`s worth watching.
MIMIC-TPW imagery suggest that much of the deep tropical moisture
is being funneled into south Texas and Mexico, with a somewhat
drier airmass pushing into our neck of the woods. Meanwhile, a
ridge of high pressure over NE CONUS is building southwest towards
Texas. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that the ridge will
continue building this way, increasing our mid/upper pressure
heights. This makes me wonder if global models are a little too
aggressive with diurnal PoPs today. There will be widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving in from the Gulf of the
Mexico. Will mesoscale and diurnal forcings allow for numerous
showers or thunderstorms? Or will the aforementioned synoptic
features suppress lift, keeping any shower/thunderstorm activity
isolated to widely scattered. We opted for moderate PoPs (~50-60%)
from I-10 to the coast. PoPs drop off north of I-10, ranging from
~30% in the Brazos Valley to Montgomery Co, to less than 10% in
our northernmost Piney Woods counties. Friday appears to be a
similar day but with a little more ML dry air. Therefore, we opted
for slightly lower PoPs.
Temperature wise, today is expected to be warm and humid with
highs averaging around 90F across the CWA (a little `cooler` at
the coast, and a tad hotter in the Piney Woods). Tonight is
looking seasonably warm and muggy with lows generally in the 70s,
with coastal areas struggling to drop below 80F. With a tinge of
drier ML air leading to less expected cloud coverage on Friday,
highs are forecast to be a little hotter, with low/mid 90s north
of I-10 and upper 80s to low 90s south of I-10 to the coast.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Model guidance continues to indicate the development of another
tropical disturbance over or near the Bay of Campeche during the
weekend which slowly tracks west northwest towards the eastern coast
of Mexico. In response to the mid to upper level ridge over the
Southern Plains, the disturbance may not be able to move northward
much and could make landfall over the eastern coast of Mexico,
similar to TS Alberto. One difference noted since the model runs
from 24 hours ago, is that the wind field does seem a little more
organized in the latest run...although still somewhat elongated as
it reaches the coastline. The general behavior of this disturbance
is similar to TS Alberto but smaller. Thus, indirect impacts from
the disturbance is possible this weekend into early next week but
not as strong as what we have been experiencing with TS Alberto. The
NHC outlook currently has a 10% chance of formation within the next
48 hours and a 50% chance of formation within the next 7 days for
this disturbance. Interests along the Texas coasts should continue
to monitor the development of this system.
What are we then to expect for the next few days? To start,
conditions are anticipated to be more on the tranquil side on
Saturday for most inland areas. Locations near and along the coasts
could see some isolated/passing showers during the day. On Sunday,
we may begin to see rain chances increasing from southwest to
northeast as low level moisture increases and diurnally driven
showers develop and/or showers and storms associated to the
disturbance move across Southeast TX. A similar weather pattern is
possible on Monday as the disturbance moves inland across the
eastern coast of Mexico. Although we are not expecting significant
impacts with this system inland, we could see limited impacts over
the coastal locations and Gulf waters. This may include higher seas,
gusty winds, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding (in
particular during high tide). We will need to wait and see how this
system develops to know more on these impacts, therefore, continue
to monitor the updated forecasts.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, pulses of low level moisture will continue
to move over our region and if the environment remains unstable and
is able to overcome the ridge, we could have isolated to scattered
showers and storms developing each day. This may give some relief
from the heat for some, but with temperatures rising into the mid
90s at some locations (mainly north of I-10) and dewpoints staying
in the upper 70s, we may be looking at daytime heat indices between
105-110 deg F increasing the potential for dangerous heat impacts
for some folks. Make sure to practice heat safety and make the
appropriate adjustments if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.
Cotto (24)
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Gusty east winds and isolated to scattered shower activity
expected today. Some uncertainty exists regarding SHRA coverage.
Best chance of of SHRA is from IAH points south to the coast.
MVFR cigs should rise to VFR later this morning or afternoon.
Winds are expected to decreases overnight. MVFR cigs could return
tonight. However, our current forecast leans towards low end VFR
tonight into tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Hazardous winds and seas along with elevated tides continue to
plague our coastal and offshore waters this morning. Coastal
flooding impacts during high today are likely to be similar to
yesterday. Offshore seas this morning are 10-15 feet while winds
are averaging around 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The
steep gradient fueling the large fetch over the Gulf of Mexico is
expected to gradually relax today, resulting in a gradual decline
in winds and seas. However, it may take until Friday morning or
afternoon for conditions to drop below Small Craft Advisory
levels. This is especially true for the offshore seas, which tend
decrease slowly in these large fetch scenarios. Moderate east to
southeast winds and 3 to 5 foot seas are expected this weekend
into early next week.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the Bay of Campeche
for another possible tropical system that could materialize by
early next week. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest
forecast and tropical updates.
For the latest tropical weather updates check out nhc.noaa.gov
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 74 93 73 / 30 10 20 0
Houston (IAH) 90 75 92 75 / 40 20 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 80 88 81 / 50 30 50 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for TXZ214-313-335>338-
436>439.
Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 201124
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
As I begin typing this AFD, the center of Tropical Storm Alberto
is approaching the coast of Mexico, south of Tampico. But as most
of you already know, Alberto`s winds, rains, and enhanced tides
extend well to the north of the center. Live cameras and water
level gauges show that saltwater inundation is already occurring
along the coast. Coastal flooding impacts during high tide today
will likely be similar to yesterday. Many low-lying coastal roads
will become unpassable again. Ferry services may experience
additional disruptions. As Alberto pushes inland over Mexico, the
steep gradient over the Gulf responsible for the large fetch of
easterly winds should begin to slowly relax. This will result in a
gradual decline in the winds and a decreasing risk of coastal
flooding. That being said, water levels will remain above average
through the weekend and we cannot rule out minor coastal flooding
during high tide on Friday. Current model guidance suggests water
levels will remain just below Coastal Flood Advisory criteria on
Friday. But it`s worth watching.
MIMIC-TPW imagery suggest that much of the deep tropical moisture
is being funneled into south Texas and Mexico, with a somewhat
drier airmass pushing into our neck of the woods. Meanwhile, a
ridge of high pressure over NE CONUS is building southwest towards
Texas. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that the ridge will
continue building this way, increasing our mid/upper pressure
heights. This makes me wonder if global models are a little too
aggressive with diurnal PoPs today. There will be widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving in from the Gulf of the
Mexico. Will mesoscale and diurnal forcings allow for numerous
showers or thunderstorms? Or will the aforementioned synoptic
features suppress lift, keeping any shower/thunderstorm activity
isolated to widely scattered. We opted for moderate PoPs (~50-60%)
from I-10 to the coast. PoPs drop off north of I-10, ranging from
~30% in the Brazos Valley to Montgomery Co, to less than 10% in
our northernmost Piney Woods counties. Friday appears to be a
similar day but with a little more ML dry air. Therefore, we opted
for slightly lower PoPs.
Temperature wise, today is expected to be warm and humid with
highs averaging around 90F across the CWA (a little `cooler` at
the coast, and a tad hotter in the Piney Woods). Tonight is
looking seasonably warm and muggy with lows generally in the 70s,
with coastal areas struggling to drop below 80F. With a tinge of
drier ML air leading to less expected cloud coverage on Friday,
highs are forecast to be a little hotter, with low/mid 90s north
of I-10 and upper 80s to low 90s south of I-10 to the coast.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Model guidance continues to indicate the development of another
tropical disturbance over or near the Bay of Campeche during the
weekend which slowly tracks west northwest towards the eastern coast
of Mexico. In response to the mid to upper level ridge over the
Southern Plains, the disturbance may not be able to move northward
much and could make landfall over the eastern coast of Mexico,
similar to TS Alberto. One difference noted since the model runs
from 24 hours ago, is that the wind field does seem a little more
organized in the latest run...although still somewhat elongated as
it reaches the coastline. The general behavior of this disturbance
is similar to TS Alberto but smaller. Thus, indirect impacts from
the disturbance is possible this weekend into early next week but
not as strong as what we have been experiencing with TS Alberto. The
NHC outlook currently has a 10% chance of formation within the next
48 hours and a 50% chance of formation within the next 7 days for
this disturbance. Interests along the Texas coasts should continue
to monitor the development of this system.
What are we then to expect for the next few days? To start,
conditions are anticipated to be more on the tranquil side on
Saturday for most inland areas. Locations near and along the coasts
could see some isolated/passing showers during the day. On Sunday,
we may begin to see rain chances increasing from southwest to
northeast as low level moisture increases and diurnally driven
showers develop and/or showers and storms associated to the
disturbance move across Southeast TX. A similar weather pattern is
possible on Monday as the disturbance moves inland across the
eastern coast of Mexico. Although we are not expecting significant
impacts with this system inland, we could see limited impacts over
the coastal locations and Gulf waters. This may include higher seas,
gusty winds, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding (in
particular during high tide). We will need to wait and see how this
system develops to know more on these impacts, therefore, continue
to monitor the updated forecasts.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, pulses of low level moisture will continue
to move over our region and if the environment remains unstable and
is able to overcome the ridge, we could have isolated to scattered
showers and storms developing each day. This may give some relief
from the heat for some, but with temperatures rising into the mid
90s at some locations (mainly north of I-10) and dewpoints staying
in the upper 70s, we may be looking at daytime heat indices between
105-110 deg F increasing the potential for dangerous heat impacts
for some folks. Make sure to practice heat safety and make the
appropriate adjustments if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.
Cotto (24)
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Gusty east winds and isolated to scattered shower activity
expected today. Some uncertainty exists regarding SHRA coverage.
Best chance of of SHRA is from IAH points south to the coast.
MVFR cigs should rise to VFR later this morning or afternoon.
Winds are expected to decreases overnight. MVFR cigs could return
tonight. However, our current forecast leans towards low end VFR
tonight into tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Hazardous winds and seas along with elevated tides continue to
plague our coastal and offshore waters this morning. Coastal
flooding impacts during high today are likely to be similar to
yesterday. Offshore seas this morning are 10-15 feet while winds
are averaging around 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The
steep gradient fueling the large fetch over the Gulf of Mexico is
expected to gradually relax today, resulting in a gradual decline
in winds and seas. However, it may take until Friday morning or
afternoon for conditions to drop below Small Craft Advisory
levels. This is especially true for the offshore seas, which tend
decrease slowly in these large fetch scenarios. Moderate east to
southeast winds and 3 to 5 foot seas are expected this weekend
into early next week.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the Bay of Campeche
for another possible tropical system that could materialize by
early next week. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest
forecast and tropical updates.
For the latest tropical weather updates check out nhc.noaa.gov
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 74 93 73 / 30 10 20 0
Houston (IAH) 90 75 92 75 / 40 20 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 80 88 81 / 50 30 50 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for TXZ214-313-335>338-
436>439.
Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self
Go Ags! I think we take the Vols.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 11:05 pmRip76 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 11:00 pmIt's about timeMontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 10:56 pm Hold down the fort! I’m headed to Omaha for a national championship!
Good luck sir.
Thank you sir!
I said this before Elko began his short run at Duke. We're going to shock the world in the Fall. Look what he did at Duke with 3* players and absolutely no depth while plagued by injuries.
Elko and Klein will straighten out the OL and the defense will be impenetrable.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Jun 20, 2024 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Yeah, well summer. Welcome to my world in CLL.Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2024 12:36 amUghhhhStratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2024 12:10 am The big suck is coming, unfortunately ensembles are in good agreement on a heat ridge becoming parked over the state down the road, enjoy the rain while it lasted, because it looks like the faucet may be getting shut down for some time
Ummmm...I'm not seeing any agreement at all on the ULH location long-term. NE Dome (GEFS), Western Desert Heat Dome (EPS, GFS),
Euro-AI has the only real Death Ridge over Texas...and that was yesterday's run
Wait...the latest run keeps the ridge on Euro-AI in the northern Midwest. The projections I am seeing call for heat in the NE, Upper Midwest, desert West.
Euro-AI has the only real Death Ridge over Texas...and that was yesterday's run
Wait...the latest run keeps the ridge on Euro-AI in the northern Midwest. The projections I am seeing call for heat in the NE, Upper Midwest, desert West.
Yep, as of right now I’m not really worried about any big heatwaves coming anytime soon.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2024 1:35 pm Ummmm...I'm not seeing any agreement at all on the ULH location long-term. NE Dome (GEFS), Western Desert Heat Dome (EPS, GFS),
Euro-AI has the only real Death Ridge over Texas...and that was yesterday's run
Wait...the latest run keeps the ridge on Euro-AI in the northern Midwest. The projections I am seeing call for heat in the NE, Upper Midwest, desert West.
Gig 'Em Aggies!MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 10:56 pm Hold down the fort! I’m headed to Omaha for a national championship!
Good! Let the northeast deal with extended heat for a while. We get enough of it without the pressure cooker.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
NOAA doesnt seem to think the heat ridge will be anchored over us in July, in their new monthly outlook, we will see about that
I agree with them. Not every summer is the heat ridge parked over us like some may think.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2024 3:01 pm NOAA doesnt seem to think the heat ridge will be anchored over us in July, in their new monthly outlook, we will see about that
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
024
FXUS64 KHGX 202030
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
330 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Seeing scattered showers generally near I-10 and southward. Likely
to see isolated showers develop further north during the remainder
of the aft as well. Could see an isolated thunderstorm, but
expecting mostly shower activity. Overnight and early tomorrow,
expecting isolated to scattered showers offshore and near the coast.
Precipitable water values will continue to lower from the north
tomorrow, but still have sufficient moisture levels to support
scattered showers across coastal areas early tomorrow and then
scattered activity up to about I-10 during the late
morning/afternoon hours. Min temps tonight are expected to be in the
lower 70s north and upper 70s coast with max temps tomorrow a little
warmer than today, reaching the mid 90s well inland and mid-upper
80s along the coast.
Wood
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
With rain chances on the decline over the weekend, temperatures will
be on the rise! Expect temperatures over the weekend to top out in
the low to mid 90s with some across the Piney Woods topping out in
the upper 90s. A mid-level high will continue to slide in from the
northeast over the weekend initially bringing in a brief period of
drier air. So, we won`t have to really worry about the heat index
values...yet...that`ll be next week`s issue. Moisture begins to
increase on Sunday as our next little tropical friend develops in
the Bay of Campeche and moves into the northeastern Mexico. We are
not expecting any impacts nearly as substantial as with what
occurred with Alberto. For a deeper dive into the next potential
tropical system, see the "Tropical" section down below. I can
mention up here though that the pressure gradient won`t be as
tight, so we won`t see increased winds/seas as a result of this
system. It`s main impact on us will be increased moisture that
leads to PW values rising above 2.0" through midweek that will
elevate our rain chances.
Another consequence of the increased moisture will be the elevated
heat index values due to the higher dew points. Air temperatures
will still be in the low to mid 90s early next week, then
transitioning to solid mid 90s by midweek. When you factor in the
elevated humidity with those temperature, we`ll see heat index
values well into the 100s throughout most of next week. Our criteria
for a Heat Advisory is 108F or greater, and early indications show
that we will at least be flirting with that criteria. On the plus
side, daily rain chances will continue so maybe you`ll win the
weather lottery with a cooling shower/storm!
Batiste/Ellis
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Still seeing MVFR ceilings at central and coastal TAF sites.
Expecting cloud bases to lift above 3k feet in 1 to 2 hours
inland, however, may keep MVFR ceilings at LBX and GLS this aft.
Scattered SHRA from HOU to SGR will continue and then expect some
expansion to the north with further heating this aft. Don`t
expect much inland SHRA activity once we lose heating this eve.
Drier air will be in place tomorrow, so less SHRA around on Fri.
TSRA chances look really low, so left TSRA out of TAFs.
Wood
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
8-12 foot seas and 20-25 knot winds will persist over the Gulf
waters into tonight, but will be on a gradual downward trend into
Friday. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the bays and Gulf
waters through Friday morning, but may be extended for the offshore
waters if seas take longer to recede. The worst of the coastal
flooding looks to have peaked Thursday morning with water levels
during the next high tide cycle on Friday morning being generally
between 3-4 feet above MLLW. There may be isolated instances of
water levels rising above 4 feet MLLW (especially around High
Island). The Coastal Flood Warning that is in effect till 7pm
Thursday evening will be downgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory that
will be in effect till 7pm Friday evening.
Winds and seas will continue on a downward trend going into the
weekend. Easterly to southeasterly winds may be elevated enough over
the weekend for intermittent periods of caution flags. Eyes will be
on the southwestern Gulf once again over the weekend into early next
week with the potential for a tropical system to develop in a
similar location to Alberto and also take a similar path. However,
not expecting much if any impacts from this system, but mariners are
advised to keep up to date with the latest forecast and tropical
updates.
Batiste/Ellis
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
In the wake of Tropical Depression Alberto, a new disturbance may
form in the Bay Campeche. With the developing upper-level ridge,
model guidance suggests that this disturbance will take a similar
path into the eastern coast of Mexico. However, with the smaller
wind field and the more contained nature of this system, it is
unlikely that we will experience effects as drastic as we`ve seen in
the past few days. Some tropical moisture is expected to impact us
and may elevate rain chances, but winds and seas are expected to
remain on the calmer side of things. Even with this new friend, we
remain cautiously optimistic that we won`t be effected by two
tropical systems in a week.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts for any
changes/updates from the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Ellis/Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 93 73 94 / 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 92 75 94 / 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 88 81 88 / 30 40 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
for TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening
through late tonight for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 202030
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
330 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Seeing scattered showers generally near I-10 and southward. Likely
to see isolated showers develop further north during the remainder
of the aft as well. Could see an isolated thunderstorm, but
expecting mostly shower activity. Overnight and early tomorrow,
expecting isolated to scattered showers offshore and near the coast.
Precipitable water values will continue to lower from the north
tomorrow, but still have sufficient moisture levels to support
scattered showers across coastal areas early tomorrow and then
scattered activity up to about I-10 during the late
morning/afternoon hours. Min temps tonight are expected to be in the
lower 70s north and upper 70s coast with max temps tomorrow a little
warmer than today, reaching the mid 90s well inland and mid-upper
80s along the coast.
Wood
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
With rain chances on the decline over the weekend, temperatures will
be on the rise! Expect temperatures over the weekend to top out in
the low to mid 90s with some across the Piney Woods topping out in
the upper 90s. A mid-level high will continue to slide in from the
northeast over the weekend initially bringing in a brief period of
drier air. So, we won`t have to really worry about the heat index
values...yet...that`ll be next week`s issue. Moisture begins to
increase on Sunday as our next little tropical friend develops in
the Bay of Campeche and moves into the northeastern Mexico. We are
not expecting any impacts nearly as substantial as with what
occurred with Alberto. For a deeper dive into the next potential
tropical system, see the "Tropical" section down below. I can
mention up here though that the pressure gradient won`t be as
tight, so we won`t see increased winds/seas as a result of this
system. It`s main impact on us will be increased moisture that
leads to PW values rising above 2.0" through midweek that will
elevate our rain chances.
Another consequence of the increased moisture will be the elevated
heat index values due to the higher dew points. Air temperatures
will still be in the low to mid 90s early next week, then
transitioning to solid mid 90s by midweek. When you factor in the
elevated humidity with those temperature, we`ll see heat index
values well into the 100s throughout most of next week. Our criteria
for a Heat Advisory is 108F or greater, and early indications show
that we will at least be flirting with that criteria. On the plus
side, daily rain chances will continue so maybe you`ll win the
weather lottery with a cooling shower/storm!
Batiste/Ellis
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Still seeing MVFR ceilings at central and coastal TAF sites.
Expecting cloud bases to lift above 3k feet in 1 to 2 hours
inland, however, may keep MVFR ceilings at LBX and GLS this aft.
Scattered SHRA from HOU to SGR will continue and then expect some
expansion to the north with further heating this aft. Don`t
expect much inland SHRA activity once we lose heating this eve.
Drier air will be in place tomorrow, so less SHRA around on Fri.
TSRA chances look really low, so left TSRA out of TAFs.
Wood
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
8-12 foot seas and 20-25 knot winds will persist over the Gulf
waters into tonight, but will be on a gradual downward trend into
Friday. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the bays and Gulf
waters through Friday morning, but may be extended for the offshore
waters if seas take longer to recede. The worst of the coastal
flooding looks to have peaked Thursday morning with water levels
during the next high tide cycle on Friday morning being generally
between 3-4 feet above MLLW. There may be isolated instances of
water levels rising above 4 feet MLLW (especially around High
Island). The Coastal Flood Warning that is in effect till 7pm
Thursday evening will be downgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory that
will be in effect till 7pm Friday evening.
Winds and seas will continue on a downward trend going into the
weekend. Easterly to southeasterly winds may be elevated enough over
the weekend for intermittent periods of caution flags. Eyes will be
on the southwestern Gulf once again over the weekend into early next
week with the potential for a tropical system to develop in a
similar location to Alberto and also take a similar path. However,
not expecting much if any impacts from this system, but mariners are
advised to keep up to date with the latest forecast and tropical
updates.
Batiste/Ellis
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
In the wake of Tropical Depression Alberto, a new disturbance may
form in the Bay Campeche. With the developing upper-level ridge,
model guidance suggests that this disturbance will take a similar
path into the eastern coast of Mexico. However, with the smaller
wind field and the more contained nature of this system, it is
unlikely that we will experience effects as drastic as we`ve seen in
the past few days. Some tropical moisture is expected to impact us
and may elevate rain chances, but winds and seas are expected to
remain on the calmer side of things. Even with this new friend, we
remain cautiously optimistic that we won`t be effected by two
tropical systems in a week
.Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts for any
changes/updates from the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Ellis/Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 93 73 94 / 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 92 75 94 / 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 88 81 88 / 30 40 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
for TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening
through late tonight for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Batiste
The heat is...
https://youtu.be/uZD8HKVKneI?si=bV0mQtZUYUcrSHmN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
Ridging in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere should lead to
more benign weather in the days to come as the remnant effects of
Tropical Storm Alberto taper off. PWs in excess ov 1.5" will still
suffice for scattered showers/storms today and to a lesser degree on
Saturday. Most of this rain activity should be in areas along and
south of I-10. Breezy easterly winds along the coast spanning a long
fetch continue to bring minor coastal flooding concerns,
particularly this morning with high tide as water levels rise to 3.5
ft above MLLW. Coastal flood advisories remain in effect until 7 PM
Tonight. Coastal communities should continue to exercise caution
while traversing the barrier islands/coastal locations to allow
waters to recede from any impacted roadways. Otherwise, conditions
across SE Texas will be warm with highs in the upper 80s to upper
90s. Lows will be in the 70s to lower 80s near the coast.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
A robust upper level ridge will be centered over the Southern Plains
on Sunday helped to suppress rainfall potential, but help raise the
temperatures in SE Texas. Now there will be a tropical wave (more on
this in the Tropical section below) down in the Bay of Campeche that
may force some moisture underneath the high pressure causing some
isolated showers to the Matagorda Bay region Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. But, if any showers develop, they look to be
very isolated and weak at this time. The ridge of high pressure
will be sticking around Texas through the entirety of the long
term helping to keep any large rain makers away. However, PWATs
will be around 1.75-2.3" through next week, so some daytime
heating/sea breeze initiated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day.
Temperatures will be on the hot-side through next week. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s (maybe even upper
90s by Wednesday or Thursday). Factor in the humidity, heat indices
will be in the 100-105 degree range Sunday into Monday, then
potentially up to near 108 or 110 by Wednesday or Thursday. At this
time, Heat Advisories are looking likely by mid week next week for
portions of the area. Overnight lows will be in the upper mid to
upper 70s for most of the area, but areas along the coast not
dropping below 80 is likely.
Fowler
https://youtu.be/uZD8HKVKneI?si=bV0mQtZUYUcrSHmN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
Ridging in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere should lead to
more benign weather in the days to come as the remnant effects of
Tropical Storm Alberto taper off. PWs in excess ov 1.5" will still
suffice for scattered showers/storms today and to a lesser degree on
Saturday. Most of this rain activity should be in areas along and
south of I-10. Breezy easterly winds along the coast spanning a long
fetch continue to bring minor coastal flooding concerns,
particularly this morning with high tide as water levels rise to 3.5
ft above MLLW. Coastal flood advisories remain in effect until 7 PM
Tonight. Coastal communities should continue to exercise caution
while traversing the barrier islands/coastal locations to allow
waters to recede from any impacted roadways. Otherwise, conditions
across SE Texas will be warm with highs in the upper 80s to upper
90s. Lows will be in the 70s to lower 80s near the coast.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
A robust upper level ridge will be centered over the Southern Plains
on Sunday helped to suppress rainfall potential, but help raise the
temperatures in SE Texas. Now there will be a tropical wave (more on
this in the Tropical section below) down in the Bay of Campeche that
may force some moisture underneath the high pressure causing some
isolated showers to the Matagorda Bay region Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. But, if any showers develop, they look to be
very isolated and weak at this time. The ridge of high pressure
will be sticking around Texas through the entirety of the long
term helping to keep any large rain makers away. However, PWATs
will be around 1.75-2.3" through next week, so some daytime
heating/sea breeze initiated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day.
Temperatures will be on the hot-side through next week. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s (maybe even upper
90s by Wednesday or Thursday). Factor in the humidity, heat indices
will be in the 100-105 degree range Sunday into Monday, then
potentially up to near 108 or 110 by Wednesday or Thursday. At this
time, Heat Advisories are looking likely by mid week next week for
portions of the area. Overnight lows will be in the upper mid to
upper 70s for most of the area, but areas along the coast not
dropping below 80 is likely.
Fowler
I guess so much for that second system that was being discussed. Ch13 pretty much wrote that one off on the news this morning.
Unfortunately the steering currents are just sending everything into Mexico right now. Guess we’re too close to a ridge. I thought the NW Gulf would be open for business a week or two ago. Guess I was wrong lol
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Yeah the heat ridge is still holding strong, however if something does try to get going in the western caribbean in about 7-9 days on some ensembles , something may have a better chance of getting further north in the gulf, models agree on an east coast trough splitting part of its energy, and cutting off while retrograding into the gulf, temporarily eroding the heat ridge for a time, so their could be a small window if something were to try to get going, other than that i dont see a whole lot in the models other than typical scattered afternoon storms
It is very windy down in Cancun.