February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[BigNorthSide]

What is it looking like for Montgomery county this time? We got a bit left out on the Dec 4th snow event....does this look like a good bet for folks north side?

[Mr. T]

OK guys remember what wxman has said before...if you look ta hour 54 the 0 degree line is clear to the coast so what you need todo is go ahead and look at hour 60 to see what has accumulated and look..NOTHING



EDIT: to have to take out the pic, wont fit

The 0c line is nearly to the coast at hour 48 and the precip is barely even here. Non-issue

[weatherguy425]

True, but it does seem lighter,probably no accumulation

[Mr. T]

The 0z GFS is noticeably lighter with the QPF, but who cares.

looks the same to me

The only difference I see is slightly colder temperatures.

[sambucol]

After reviewing this, I'd say we're just a few hours away from being under a Winter Storm Watch for at least a lot of us.

Do you think driving conditions will be unsafe and school will be cancelled? hoping......

[don]

0z GFS snow accumulations of up to 1 inch north of I-10 the moisture looks the same as the 18z the only thing different is that it doesn't develop the coastal trough.

[TexasMetBlake]

After reviewing this, I'd say we're just a few hours away from being under a Winter Storm Watch for at least a lot of us.

Do you think driving conditions will be unsafe and school will be cancelled? hoping......

I'm not sure we're ever going to drop below freezing. It's possible. Travel on major roadways may not be impacted much at all. Bridges and Overpasses are a different story..if we drop to freezing.

[Mr. T]

What is it looking like for Montgomery county this time? We got a bit left out on the Dec 4th snow event....does this look like a good bet for folks north side?

You won't be left out this time... You have a shot of at least an inch of snow, IMO. Houston Metro definitely has a shot at a dusting, unless a band of snow develops overhead and wreaks havoc

It is a nowcast system for sure!

[Mr. T]

0z GFS snow accumulations of up to 1 inch north of I-10 the moisture looks the same as the 18z the only thing different is that it doesn't develop the coastal trough.

This can be a misleading map, as none of this takes into effect the possibility of mesoscale forcing and banding that will likely develop with this system. There will likely be many suprise high snowfall totals with this.

[BigNorthSide]

Thanks Mr. T

[TexasMetBlake]

What is it looking like for Montgomery county this time? We got a bit left out on the Dec 4th snow event....does this look like a good bet for folks north side?

You won't be left out this time... You have a shot of at least an inch of snow, IMO. Houston Metro definitely has a shot at a dusting, unless a band of snow develops overhead and wreaks havoc

Again, drawing lines are arbitrary. Could the snow line be further north than Montgomery County? Yes. Could the snow line be further south over Downtown Houston or even further south? Yes. I think everybody will see something, but too early as to what can be expected accumulations wise. I do feel as though the best chance of accumulating snow will be from 1960 northward though. We'll see.

[don]

The soundings support snow over north Harris County

[Mr. T]

Even if you live on the coast, you could still see some snowflakes out of this mixing with the light rainfall. The chance of anything accumulating is slim to none, but, I don't think it will be all rain there, either. These colder solutions are definitely encouraging.

[srainhoutx]

0z GFS snow accumulations of up to 1 inch north of I-10 the moisture looks the same as the 18z the only thing different is that it doesn't develop the coastal trough.

This can be a misleading map, as none of this takes into effect the possibility of mesoscale forcing and banding that will likely develop with this system. There will likely be many suprise high snowfall totals with this.

Take another look at the 850's (heights and vort) Don.

[Mr. T]

Ig GFS 2 meter temps are right, while precip is falling and 850 mb temps are cold enough, 0.10 inches falls between 3.7 and 1.6ºC, so maybe, maybe not, flakes in the air, but accumulation not at all, if GFS is correct.

If GFS is right, best is some melting flakes at the end.

No joy locally for those of us spoiled by the December 5th snow miracle.

I have no idea what the hell you are talking about. The GFS literally shows the possibility of accumulating snow to the coast, and surface temperatures do not have to be at freezing for this to occur.

[TexasMetBlake]

Models are a forecasting TOOL. They are NOT the forecast. Please keep that in mind when calling a blizzard or calling it bogus. Every county in the CWA stands a chance here. For those in Montgomery County northward, I'd say your chance is VERY good.

[txsnowmaker]

I will certainly not be complaining if the 0z GFS verifies, but I am almost more inclined to follow the NAM with regard to its heavier precip totals.

[BigNorthSide]

You guys work on getting some cold air here. I am gonna wash my old truck tomorrow.....shine er up real good. That will bring on more moisture than you can imagine

[TexasMetBlake]

WSW for HGX CWA?


Maybe the counties up around Madisonville and CLL that border NWS FWD, IMHO. Maybe one more row of counies South of existing FWD counties.

More likely a WWA.


Light snow in the air with mid 30s temps and making grass and streets wet probably doesn't trigger much.

Maybe as close as Huntsville area (Walker and Madison). IMHO.

Huh? Did you read the afternoon AFD?

[Mr. T]

From FWD:

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE/LL HOLD THE CURRENT
FORECAST INTACT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF 2-4 INCHES FALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN METROPLEX WITH ISOLATED SWATCHES OF 5-8 INCHES FOR
BANDED SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 WHERE THE NAM SHOWS THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. ACTIVE WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH TOMORROW MORNINGS FORECAST.

EL NINO WINTERS...YOU GOTTA LOVE THEM.


And, that will be the fly in the ointment