January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[wxman57]

Here's a rainfall map from Harris County Flood Control showing yesterday's rainfall across the area. I ended up with a total of 6.78", which is higher than any report on the map. My house's location is in blue just west of the SW corner of 610. Next to it is the gauge at Brays Bayou and Gessner with 6.6". I'm just south of Brays Bayou at Hillcroft, 2 miles ESE of that gauge or so. This explains why Brays Bayou was so high yesterday.

[wxman57]

Let's take a look at the weather for the marathons this weekend. The overnight models have come into very good agreement as far as the next 5-7 days, though the Euro is a BIT of the outlier. The GFS has dropped the system moving across Texas on Saturday in favor of a much slower moving system reaching Texas on Tuesday. Canadian is in good agreement. Euro is NOT in agreement, moving the upper low even more slowly at first but then it nearly catches up with the GFS's position next Tuesday. So it's just a tad slower than the GFS/Canadian at 7 days out.

All models agree on cool and dry for the weekend. For Saturday, it's looking like a low in the mid to upper 30s with a temperature in the mid to upper 40s as the race ends. On Sunday, a low in the low 40s with a temperature in the mid 50s by noon.

Wind-wise, with high pressure overhead on Saturday morning, winds look light and variable for the race, generally less than 7 mph. Great weather for long-distance running, I suppose. For Sunday, the high slips a bit to our east allowing for an E-ESE wind in the 3-9 mph range for the race. Could be a lot worse in January.

Here's a meteogram based on the 06Z GFS:

[MontgomeryCoWx]

back to boring weather.... blah

[srainhoutx]

Boring weather? I'd call 5 months of 100F and bone dry boring. Look what's building to the N in Canada. Everyone has been so worried about lack of snowcover across Canada and the N Plains. That is about to change big time. Winter ain't over yet folks. We actually need a dry spell after yesterdays deluge we had down here...

[Ounce]

Let's take a look at the weather for the marathons this weekend. The overnight models have come into very good agreement as far as the next 5-7 days, though the Euro is a BIT of the outlier. The GFS has dropped the system moving across Texas on Saturday in favor of a much slower moving system reaching Texas on Tuesday. Canadian is in good agreement. Euro is NOT in agreement, moving the upper low even more slowly at first but then it nearly catches up with the GFS's position next Tuesday. So it's just a tad slower than the GFS/Canadian at 7 days out.

All models agree on cool and dry for the weekend. For Saturday, it's looking like a low in the mid to upper 30s with a temperature in the mid to upper 40s as the race ends. On Sunday, a low in the low 40s with a temperature in the mid 50s by noon.

Wind-wise, with high pressure overhead on Saturday morning, winds look light and variable for the race, generally less than 7 mph. Great weather for long-distance running, I suppose. For Sunday, the high slips a bit to our east allowing for an E-ESE wind in the 3-9 mph range for the race. Could be a lot worse in January.

Here's a meteogram based on the 06Z GFS:

Thanks very much. Would it be safe to say the skies will be clear to mostly clear on both days? I guess so with the High situated over us.

And, yes, that's great weather for long-distance running because it's not so warm that you're sweating to keep your body cool, so dehydration is much less of a factor which makes you perform better.


Oz

[MontgomeryCoWx]

back to boring weather.... blah

At least we still have a team in the NFL playoffs.

so true... The Texans are my 2nd favorite team (Eagles Fan), but I'm thrilled about a miracle run to the Super Bowl for Houston!

Meanwhile, I'm going to sit here and cry in my whiskey and coffee over the LSU loss last night. I haven't sobered up yet.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Boring weather? I'd call 5 months of 100F and bone dry boring. Look what's building to the N in Canada. Everyone has been so worried about lack of snowcover across Canada and the N Plains. That is about to change big time. Winter ain't over yet folks. We actually need a dry spell after yesterdays deluge we had down here...

I agree srain... was just hoping for a weekend snow miracle!

And yes, the Summer here was horribly boring and crippling.

Are we on tap for a cold February? I'd like to see that Rex block set up over Greenland.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I myself want a warm but wet Winter, including the highlands of Mexico down Nuevo Leon and Coahuila way, so the capping inversion isn't as strong AND the low clouds that form when higher dewpoint air from the Southern Gulf moves over the cooler shelf waters isn't as thick and can mix out before lunchtime on potential severe weather days.

But thats just me. But that is just me. The whiteout rains, nearly black sky, strong winds and near continuous thunder near the Galleria, I want that again March through May.

I want that late March through May too.... I want whiteouts right now.

[JackCruz]

Gotta wait for next winter for snow i guess....

[niner21]

Can someone help me with a small favor?

I'm arguing with a neighbor on a house we built a few months ago. He has some minor drainage issues due to the fact that there was once no house next door to him and poof, now there is a house there....

I was on the "wundermap" page yesterday and found the "rainfall rate" graph on a spot near Bentwater (north side of lake conroe by FM 1097 dam) and today it's not there (I guess it has data only back 24hrs).

Can anyone pull or know where to find rainfall rate data from just yesterday? The graph had the rate at 4.75 inches per hour (YIKES) and I meant to print screen and I didn't get it I guess.

It's impossible to design a drainage system to take rainfall rates like that. I could show him video as proof as I drove all around Conroe and Montgomery. There was flooding everywhere.

[wxman57]

Can someone help me with a small favor?

I'm arguing with a neighbor on a house we built a few months ago. He has some minor drainage issues due to the fact that there was once no house next door to him and poof, now there is a house there....

I was on the "wundermap" page yesterday and found the "rainfall rate" graph on a spot near Bentwater (north side of lake conroe by FM 1097 dam) and today it's not there (I guess it has data only back 24hrs).

Can anyone pull or know where to find rainfall rate data from just yesterday? The graph had the rate at 4.75 inches per hour (YIKES) and I meant to print screen and I didn't get it I guess.

It's impossible to design a drainage system to take rainfall rates like that. I could show him video as proof as I drove all around Conroe and Montgomery. There was flooding everywhere.

Rainfall rates in heavy showers/thunderstorms frequently are in the 5-9 inch range across our area. That doesn't mean 1 hr accumulations of 5-9 inches, as that sort of rainfall rate typically lasts maybe 5-10 minutes of a passing storm at most. But in that short period of time, it's not uncommon for 2-3 inches to fall. I've seen 2-3 inch amounts in 10-15 minutes many times here in the past. Yesterday's rainfall rates were likely in the 4-6 inch per hour range at times but the rain lasted a lot longer than the typical passing storm, so the water didn't have a chance to drain off as it normally would after an afternoon thunderstorm. Thus, the flooding.

[BiggieSmalls]

So if you guys had to guess, will DFW see any snow this winter? I know we have another 2 months or so, but things sure don't look promising.

[wxman57]

So if you guys had to guess, will DFW see any snow this winter? I know we have another 2 months or so, but things sure don't look promising.

The pattern we've been in, storm track-wise, actually isn't a bad one for snow in the Dallas area. The problem has been a lack of air sufficiently cold and deep enough for snow to form when the upper lows pass. Currently, it's going to be difficult to get a deep enough cold airmass down to Dallas due in large part to the lack of an insulating snow pack to the north:



There are signs, however, of a buildup of cold air in western Canada within the next 5-10 days. In order to have a chance of snow in Dallas, a fair chunk of this airmass needs to move southward down the Plains rather than off to the ESE across the Great Lakes as the long-range models are now projecting. And it wouldn't hurt to get a few snow storms in the Central Plains and Northern Plains to help insulate the cold air as it moves south. That's going to take a significant change in the flow pattern across the U.S., though, and I'm not sure we'll see that.

Bottom line is I think you should remember the snow of past years and not get your hopes up too much this winter. It's not impossible, but it's going to take a series of events to get snow in Dallas this winter.

[BiggieSmalls]

Thanks for the feedback! I know we've gotten snow in late Feb-early March before, so i'll keep my fingers crossed.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is about 18 hours faster than the 00Z Euro with the passage of the next upper-level trof/low next Monday evening across northeast TX. This is about 6 hours faster than the 06Z GFS. No winter precip with this feature, however. The next snow for Texas (according to the 12Z GFS) would be in the northwestern panhandle on the 24th in the wake of a Canadian cold front.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

12Z GFS is about 18 hours faster than the 00Z Euro with the passage of the next upper-level trof/low next Monday evening across northeast TX. This is about 6 hours faster than the 06Z GFS. No winter precip with this feature, however. The next snow for Texas (according to the 12Z GFS) would be in the northwestern panhandle on the 24th in the wake of a Canadian cold front.

any serious rain in the next 10 days?

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS is about 18 hours faster than the 00Z Euro with the passage of the next upper-level trof/low next Monday evening across northeast TX. This is about 6 hours faster than the 06Z GFS. No winter precip with this feature, however. The next snow for Texas (according to the 12Z GFS) would be in the northwestern panhandle on the 24th in the wake of a Canadian cold front.

any serious rain in the next 10 days?

The Pacific is about to get rather active as storm systems dives further S along the Pacific NW and Northern California. The guidance is still struggling with the various short waves and upper lows out over the Pacific and just how they'll react with the pattern changes showing up. If the Sub Tropical jet were to remain somewhat active, moisture could be available across Texas. Keep an eye on the 20th +/- a couple of days. The GFS is sniffing a potent storm and this fits well with indicators of wintry mischief for parts of Texas. The good news for cold weather lovers is the fact that our 'source regions' are getting very chilly and an active pattern promotes better chances of snow cover to our N.

[srainhoutx]

Temps are struggling to get out the upper 40's this noon hour. The Texas visible imagery shows the Midland Area snow cover and the cold core upper low to our N creating these chilly conditions.

[unome]

Can someone help me with a small favor?

I was on the "wundermap" page yesterday and found the "rainfall rate" graph on a spot near Bentwater (north side of lake conroe by FM 1097 dam) and today it's not there (I guess it has data only back 24hrs).

Can anyone pull or know where to find rainfall rate data from just yesterday? The graph had the rate at 4.75 inches per hour (YIKES) and I meant to print screen and I didn't get it I guess.

here's the link for "Bentwater" weather station on Weather Underground http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KTXMONTG12

to get previous info, just click on "previous day" or select the date using the drop-down month/day/year

looks like it topped out at about 5"/hr for a time, between 7 & 8 am

here's yesterday's graph"

[srainhoutx]

Take a look at Western Canada via the 12Z Euro. There is our source region, gang. Now if the pattern can drop into the Great Basin/Intermountain West/Plains, there will be a very active storm track setting up with multiple storms dropping snow across that region. Stepping down...