Yep. Finally. It split and I was starting to get pissed and then it closed back off and came through hard. Rain gauge only showed 0.75 inches but I'll take anything.
September 2023
Last edited by Cromagnum on Mon Sep 25, 2023 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Nice. I hope we see the same thing next time....which will be next month sometime.
Lol right. That’s why I’m little frustrated. It is what it is but dang this was a good chance for widespread rain and the dang outflow got in the way for me. Oh well. On a positive note, I don’t have to mow until next year!
You have GOT to be kidding me! 
Picked up .70” here. Solid rain!
The power went out briefly earlier from the storms.
Just remember folks that just because your specific location doesn't receive rain,doesn't make the forecast a bust.
Just remember folks that just because your specific location doesn't receive rain,doesn't make the forecast a bust.
I never said the forecast was a bust. I’m pissed because they split right before getting to me, then reconnoitered once they passed League City. 🥺
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6062
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 261135
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
The weak boundary that brought scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms is currently offshore. Rain and storm chances continue
along the boundary early this morning, with the best chances over
the coastal waters through at least midday. This boundary is progged
to remain along the coastal waters today, possibly pushing inland
along the coastal counties. If this happens, rain and storm chances
can be expected, particularly in the afternoon due to the
combination of daytime heating, surface convergence and increased
PWs along and east of the boundary. Forecast soundings suggest a
relatively dry forecast roughly north of I-10, while some
omega/lifting and low-level moisture remain for locations south of I-
10. Will continue with 20-25 percent chance of PoPs through early
this evening.
High pressure centered over north/central TX will dominate the
weather, providing north to northeast sfc flow across the region. In
fact, drier air will continue to filter in throughout the day with
afternoon dewpoints in the 60s. Lowest dewpoints over the Brazos
Valley. In terms of temperatures, with north to northeast flow aloft
and 850mb temperatures into the 15 to 19 degC range, highs will be a
few degrees cooler than yesterday. Highs will generally be from the
low to mid 90s.
A transition to warmer and more humid conditions can be expected on
Wednesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with the best coverage south of I-10
(coastward) due to higher PWs/low-level moisture.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Ridging with northwesterly aloft continues to prevail with various
shortwaves moving downstream and providing PVA. PW values will
generally be in the 1.3"-1.6" range through the end of the work week
with higher amounts closer to the coast, so this should be just
enough moisture for the PVA along with sea/bay breeze
interactions to generate diurnal showers/thunderstorms. As always
with a pattern like this, the best chances for seeing rain will be
south of I-10 and along the coast. Temperatures for the remainder
of the work week look to top out in the low 90s with lows in the
low to mid 70s. Going into Friday, the ridge aloft becomes
increasingly amplified and stretches northeastward towards the
Upper Midwest as an upper level low drifts down into the western
CONUS. While this occurs, a trough over the northeastern CONUS
will get stretched southwestward. It won`t be enough to shift the
trough overhead, but it`ll be just enough to cause a pocket of
drier air to back in from the east going into the weekend. PW
values subsequently decrease to 1.0"-1.3" by Saturday afternoon
(25th percentile: ~1.07"). It`s worth noting that the GFS actually
develops a cutoff low over the northern Gulf from the elongated
trough, but for now this is an outlier solution compared to the
other deterministic models.
500mb heights also increase to 590-592 dam by Sunday as a 590+ dam
midlevel high builds in over Texas. With drier air in place along
with rising midlevel heights, we`ll see temperatures trend closer
towards the mid 90s over the weekend and going into next week along
with suppressed rain chances (20-30% along the coast). There is
another feature that will result from the drier air though, and
that`ll be felt during the overnight hours next week! With dew
points dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s early next week, low
temperatures should be able to drop into the upper 60s/low 70s.
That would be right around normal for this time of the year, which
is always a plus!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Isolated IFR to LIFR conditions due to fog should lift in the
next hour or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today,
outside any storms. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
be possible along a weak boundary lingering along the coast. Most
of this activity will occur in the afternoon. Light NNE winds
will prevail through the period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Light to occasionally moderate winds and low seas will persist
through most of the week. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms
remain especially during the overnight and early morning hours due
to various upper level disturbances and a nearby weak frontal
boundary. Today winds will be light and northerly and eventually
becoming predominantly easterly to northeasterly overnight. These
easterly to northeasterly winds will prevail going into the weekend
and will approach caution flag thresholds towards the end of the
week. An extended easterly fetch will also lead to seas increasing
to 3 to 5 feet over the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 71 95 71 / 10 10 20 0
Houston (IAH) 92 72 94 73 / 30 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 89 78 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 261135
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
The weak boundary that brought scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms is currently offshore. Rain and storm chances continue
along the boundary early this morning, with the best chances over
the coastal waters through at least midday. This boundary is progged
to remain along the coastal waters today, possibly pushing inland
along the coastal counties. If this happens, rain and storm chances
can be expected, particularly in the afternoon due to the
combination of daytime heating, surface convergence and increased
PWs along and east of the boundary. Forecast soundings suggest a
relatively dry forecast roughly north of I-10, while some
omega/lifting and low-level moisture remain for locations south of I-
10. Will continue with 20-25 percent chance of PoPs through early
this evening.
High pressure centered over north/central TX will dominate the
weather, providing north to northeast sfc flow across the region. In
fact, drier air will continue to filter in throughout the day with
afternoon dewpoints in the 60s. Lowest dewpoints over the Brazos
Valley. In terms of temperatures, with north to northeast flow aloft
and 850mb temperatures into the 15 to 19 degC range, highs will be a
few degrees cooler than yesterday. Highs will generally be from the
low to mid 90s.
A transition to warmer and more humid conditions can be expected on
Wednesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with the best coverage south of I-10
(coastward) due to higher PWs/low-level moisture.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Ridging with northwesterly aloft continues to prevail with various
shortwaves moving downstream and providing PVA. PW values will
generally be in the 1.3"-1.6" range through the end of the work week
with higher amounts closer to the coast, so this should be just
enough moisture for the PVA along with sea/bay breeze
interactions to generate diurnal showers/thunderstorms. As always
with a pattern like this, the best chances for seeing rain will be
south of I-10 and along the coast. Temperatures for the remainder
of the work week look to top out in the low 90s with lows in the
low to mid 70s. Going into Friday, the ridge aloft becomes
increasingly amplified and stretches northeastward towards the
Upper Midwest as an upper level low drifts down into the western
CONUS. While this occurs, a trough over the northeastern CONUS
will get stretched southwestward. It won`t be enough to shift the
trough overhead, but it`ll be just enough to cause a pocket of
drier air to back in from the east going into the weekend. PW
values subsequently decrease to 1.0"-1.3" by Saturday afternoon
(25th percentile: ~1.07"). It`s worth noting that the GFS actually
develops a cutoff low over the northern Gulf from the elongated
trough, but for now this is an outlier solution compared to the
other deterministic models.
500mb heights also increase to 590-592 dam by Sunday as a 590+ dam
midlevel high builds in over Texas. With drier air in place along
with rising midlevel heights, we`ll see temperatures trend closer
towards the mid 90s over the weekend and going into next week along
with suppressed rain chances (20-30% along the coast). There is
another feature that will result from the drier air though, and
that`ll be felt during the overnight hours next week! With dew
points dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s early next week, low
temperatures should be able to drop into the upper 60s/low 70s.
That would be right around normal for this time of the year, which
is always a plus!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Isolated IFR to LIFR conditions due to fog should lift in the
next hour or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today,
outside any storms. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
be possible along a weak boundary lingering along the coast. Most
of this activity will occur in the afternoon. Light NNE winds
will prevail through the period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Light to occasionally moderate winds and low seas will persist
through most of the week. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms
remain especially during the overnight and early morning hours due
to various upper level disturbances and a nearby weak frontal
boundary. Today winds will be light and northerly and eventually
becoming predominantly easterly to northeasterly overnight. These
easterly to northeasterly winds will prevail going into the weekend
and will approach caution flag thresholds towards the end of the
week. An extended easterly fetch will also lead to seas increasing
to 3 to 5 feet over the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 71 95 71 / 10 10 20 0
Houston (IAH) 92 72 94 73 / 30 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 89 78 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Batiste
The front can’t be that diffuse because that’s a decent north breeze blowing out there.
Keeping an eye out for tomorrow.
Keeping an eye out for tomorrow.
Funnel cloud tried to get going right next to me just as I was pulling in my driveway right before the storm.
The fortunate thing is that the League City region cashed in BIG TIME with the previous stormy event during the Sept 10-16th week: the HGX station (NWSO located in Dickinson) has almost 5 inches total for the month, which is more than many places here so far this month.
According to Storm2k, the -PDO is still quite strong. They think that is the reason why this relatively dry pattern is continuing despite the El Nino.
The long-term forecasts are in agreement for more of the same. Low to mid 90s. Not much chance of rain or even 80s in CLL until the 9th or 10th of Oct.
Too dry and hot for brown patch? (probably not).
Too dry and hot for brown patch? (probably not).
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5371
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
The PDO will weaken, starting mid october wet and cooler thab normal will be the theme for the remainder of this year and all of winter 2024
I am so tired of this heat and humidity. Looks like the seabreeze is trying though.