That’s good to hear!don wrote: ↑Sun May 19, 2024 6:10 pmNo thank goodness outside of some tree limbs/branches and blown patio furniture. Some others were not so lucky around me as some large trees went through home roofs. Walking around only my part of the neighborhood every few blocks you see a home with blue tarps like you would after a Hurricane.
If I recall, they were predicting more of a heavy rain event rather than a derecho.tireman4 wrote: ↑Sun May 19, 2024 1:05 pm
Let me say this. First, I am not a meteorologist, but it is not an exact science. Even in this say of advanced computing, mistakes can still be made. He has a BS in Meteorology from Rutgers, so I respect his understanding of the science ( pro met). Second, it threw many a pro met ( this system) . Some were surprised by the intensity. Third, I posted the warm temperatures today, nothing controversial.
Yes it sounded like a train! That's when I started to freak out a little because i was thinking there was a tornado coming through.MH5 wrote: ↑ Well that was a wild ride here in timbergrove, glad to finally getting power back but understandable that it’s been taking them so long. I love a good strong (but well behaved) thunderstorm, but man that got dicey in a hurry. Sounded like a freight train for a good 10 minutes. Here’s to hoping that was the main event for the year and not an appetizer for hurricane season.
Pretty much. I dig the easterlies.don wrote: ↑Sun May 19, 2024 8:02 pm As far as rainfall depiction, i wouldn't trust the models in this range,as they have had a habit this season of overdoing the intensity of the Mexican ridge.(Especially the GFS) i feel chances are that several of the disturbances(storm complexes to be specific) that the models show moving in from the north/northwest over the next couple of weeks will not fizzle out as fast as they are depicting. And several of these systems may "sneak" there way into SE Texas (Especially north of I-10). We'll have to get in the range of the mesoscale models though to figure out which of these disturbances will "sneak" through the ridge.Saying that i still feel we will have some dry and hot days ahead,but I do think it will be wetter over the next few weeks than what the global models are depicting at the moment.
TLDR (not all disturbances will make it through the ridge and into SE Texas but some will)
don wrote: ↑Sun May 19, 2024 8:18 pmYes it sounded like a train! That's when I started to freak out a little because i was thinking there was a tornado coming through.MH5 wrote: ↑ Well that was a wild ride here in timbergrove, glad to finally getting power back but understandable that it’s been taking them so long. I love a good strong (but well behaved) thunderstorm, but man that got dicey in a hurry. Sounded like a freight train for a good 10 minutes. Here’s to hoping that was the main event for the year and not an appetizer for hurricane season.
Yeppers! The CPC forecast today reflects it. I think they’re a bit too bullish on the heat though.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2024 2:16 pm Cpv17 yep no heat ridge and numerous disturbances passing through the state bringing rain with even another front diving down in the 10 day range
SBCAPE (Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy) is a measure of instability in the troposphere. This value represents the total amount of potential energy available to a parcel of air originating at the surface and being lifted to its level of free convection (LFC). No parcel entrainment is considered. The CAPE and CIN calculations use the virtual temperature correction.
CIN (Convective INhibition) represents the "negative" area on a sounding that must be overcome before storm initiation can occur.
100-mb Mixed Layer CAPE/CIN (J kg-1)
MLCAPE (Mixed Layer Convective Available Potential Energy) is a measure of instability in the troposphere. This value represents the mean potential energy conditions available to parcels of air located in the lowest 100-mb when lifted to the level of free convection (LFC). No parcel entrainment is considered. The CAPE and CIN calculations use the virtual temperature correction.
CIN (Convective INhibition) represents the "negative" area on a sounding that must be overcome before storm initiation can occur.
Downdraft CAPE (J kg-1)
The DCAPE (Downdraft CAPE) can be used to estimate the potential strength of rain-cooled downdrafts within deep convection, and is similar to CAPE. Larger DCAPE values are associated with stronger downdrafts. Likewise, DCIN (downdraft inhibition) is analogous to convective inhibition (hatching at 25 and 100 J kg-1)
Mid-Level Lapse Rates (C km-1)
A lapse rate is the rate of temperature change with height. The faster the temperature decreases with height, the "steeper" the lapse rate and the more "unstable" the atmosphere becomes.
Lapse rates are shown in terms of degrees Celcius change per kilometer in height. Values less than 5.5-6.0 C km-1 ("moist" adiabatic) represent "stable" conditions, while values greater than 9.8 C km-1 ("dry" adiabatic) are considered "absolutely unstable." In between these two values, lapse rates are considered "conditionally unstable." Conditional instability means that if enough moisture is present, lifted air parcels could have a negative LI (lifted index) or positive CAPE.
The 700-500 mb lapse rates, also referred to as mid-level lapse rates, are meant to identify regions where deep convection is more probable (all else being equal). Likewise, steeper lapse rates correspond to the possibility of larger CAPE and stronger storm updrafts.
Effective Bulk Wind Difference (kts)
The magnitude of the vector wind difference from the effective inflow base upward to 50% of the equilibrium level height for the most unstable parcel in the lowest 300 mb. This parameter is similar to the 0-6 km bulk wind difference, though it accounts for storm depth (effective inflow base to EL) and is designed to identify both surface-based and "elevated" supercell environments. Supercells become more probable as the effective bulk wind difference increases in magnitude through the range of 25-40 kt and greater.
Additional information can be found here. (Please open this link in another browser window.)
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/t ... fshear.pdf
0-9 km AGL skew-T diagram
Display depicts the vertical profiles of temperature (red) and dew point temperature (green), in the form of a standard skew-T/logP diagram for the lowest 9 km above ground level.
The 0 C and -20 C isotherms (dashed black and brown diagonal lines, respectively) are plotted for reference. The dashed black curve denotes the "most unstable" lifted parcel trace (only when MUCAPE >= 100 J kg-1 and MUCIN > -250 J kg-1), and the shaded area (light red) shows lifted parcel buoyancy.
Precipitable Water (PW) indicates the amount of moisture there is above a fixed point. It does not indicate how much it will rain but rather how much moisture is in the air. For example, a Precipitable Water value of 1 inch does not indicate it will rain 1 inch but rather indicates all the moisture above a location if condensed would be 1 inch. The Precipitable Water value is also an instantaneous value of the amount of moisture in the air above a location. It can precipitate more than the precipitable value amount since moisture convergence can occur and precipitation falls over a span of time and is not instantaneous.
The Precipitable Water value gives a forecaster an idea of the amount of moisture in the air. Higher values indicate greater availability of moisture to make rainfall if precipitation develops. Below is a general guide to interpreting the Precipitable Water values:
0.50 inches or less = very low moisture content
0.50 to 1.25 inches = low moisture content
1.25 to 1.75 inches = moderate moisture content
1.75 to 2.00 inches = high moisture content
2.00 inches or above = very high moisture content
Yep, im a little concerned that we haven't seen the last wind damage event this season in SE Texas.And there could be more to come in such an active pattern.With fast moving storm complexes or MCS moving south from the northwest flow aloft.Hopefully nothing like Thursdays Derecho though that was not fun...Stratton20 wrote: ↑ Models are hinting at another frontal boundary moving down here in about 8-10 days, looks like after a brief break, the active pattern is going to be coming back soon
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