August 2022

[cperk]

Geez, that disturbance over the Yucatán/Guatemala looks really impressive right now. I could definitely see it developing once it gets back over water.

You are right it looks impressive over land lets see what it does once it immerges over the southern GOM.

[Texashawk]

This has been a crazy quiet hurricane season so far, and we’re only a few weeks from the peak of the season already!

[srainhoutx]

The ensembles suggest that the Tropics may become very active the next couple of weeks.

[Stratton20]

I dont trust the fact that its been unusually quiet in the tropics, definitely cant let our guard down! Even if its just a average season, one storm that comes to mind is Hurricane Rita, wasnt their only like 5-6 named storms that season? And one of thise was Rita, only takes one storm to be a bad season

[Cromagnum]

I dont trust the fact that its been unusually quiet in the tropics, definitely cant let our guard down! Even if its just a average season, one storm that comes to mind is Hurricane Rita, wasnt their only like 5-6 named storms that season? And one of thise was Rita, only takes one storm to be a bad season

To get to R, you need 16 other named storms first. Also same year as Katrina which is why Houston lost its mind. 2005 was a really active season.

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum I must be thinking of a different storm then

[Cromagnum]

Cromagnum I must be thinking of a different storm then

1983 Hurricane Alicia? That one smoked Houston, and there were only 4 named storms that year.

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum yup thats the one, obviously not saying we are going to get slammed by a major hurricane, but since this season looks to be near average, Alicia is a perfect reminder that an average to maybe slightly below average season can still be dangerous , all it takes is one

[tireman4]

HGX Noon Update...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 181716
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

.AVIATION...
Look for showers and thunderstorms to initiate and fill in around
the CLL/UTS/CXO terminals within the next hour or 2. Storms will
probably consolidate and move south into the Houston terminals in
the late afternoon and off the coast in the early evening. Some
will have the potential to be on the strong side...with reduced
visibility in heavy rain and also the possibility of strong wind
gusts 25kt+ (more than likely out of a northerly direction).
Trailing shra and a few embedded storms will generally be tapering
off in the 1-4z timeframe.

Mostly VFR conditions with some 8-12k ceilings overnight...though
wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy fog development should
there be any brief breaks in the clouds considering wet grounds.

Heading into the sunrise hours, model guidance is hinting at some
tstm development near the coast (GLS/LBX) eventually expanding
inland into the Houston terminals in the mid-late morning.
Confidence isn`t particularly high on the details and will be
dependent on how worked over the atmos becomes after todays
storms and where boundaries end up. That said there is enough of a
consensus to add some TEMPO`s. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 72 93 76 / 70 70 60 10
Houston (IAH) 96 74 93 77 / 70 70 70 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 78 90 82 / 60 60 70 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

Midday Update:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

.AVIATION...
Look for showers and thunderstorms to initiate and fill in around
the CLL/UTS/CXO terminals within the next hour or 2. Storms will
probably consolidate and move south into the Houston terminals in
the late afternoon and off the coast in the early evening. Some
will have the potential to be on the strong side...with reduced
visibility in heavy rain and also the possibility of strong wind
gusts 25kt+ (more than likely out of a northerly direction).
Trailing shra and a few embedded storms will generally be tapering
off in the 1-4z timeframe.

Mostly VFR conditions with some 8-12k ceilings overnight...though
wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy fog development should
there be any brief breaks in the clouds considering wet grounds.

Heading into the sunrise hours, model guidance is hinting at some
tstm development near the coast (GLS/LBX) eventually expanding
inland into the Houston terminals in the mid-late morning.
Confidence isn`t particularly high on the details and will be
dependent on how worked over the atmos becomes after todays
storms and where boundaries end up. That said there is enough of a
consensus to add some TEMPO`s. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 72 93 76 / 70 70 60 10
Houston (IAH) 96 74 93 77 / 70 70 70 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 78 90 82 / 60 60 70 20

[djmike]

Most beautiful picture I have ever seen.
QPF 7 day just updated 2et.

73C6A0A3-89A8-4E42-99D1-26A9A2D83C01.jpeg

[djmike]

Only RGV area left out but they got flooding rains last weekend. Nice to see the entire states going to benefit all around the same time. Just not all at once, please. Time to rejoice…

[Hrtb]

Pea sized hail, gusty winds, decent amount of lightning, and lost power here in Kingwood…

[Stratton20]

The Euro is something to watch very closely , it has been continuously developing a cut off low over the state in a few days and slowly, and I mean slowly drifts south over the state, still in texas through friday,we need the rain, but that is also a recipe for a flood setup
Next frame hour 216, the cut off low still is in Texas through Saturday

[djmike]

Feast or Famine like always. Watch.

[jasons2k]

Getting a little nervous about today. A dead zone between here and Huntsville and the storm to the southeast is about to push an outflow over me from the SE.

[Cromagnum]

B/CS struck gold

[Pas_Bon]

The storms are really beginning to ramp up.....here we go.

[djmike]

Torrential rain and bad lightning all around me in Beaumont. The start of many to come….

[djmike]

Just over 1” in 15 min.