June 2021:

[Cromagnum]

It was hot today! Just the beginning of it dries out and we don’t get some rain

Always the way it is. Zero rains for weeks or too much all at once.

[Cpv17]

It was hot today! Just the beginning of it dries out and we don’t get some rain

Always the way it is. Zero rains for weeks or too much all at once.

Literally just stole the words right out of my mouth. Our weather here is wack. It used to not be like this. And my intuition is telling me that the water hose has turned off and we’re about to enter one long hot and dry pattern.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I hope your intuition isnt right for this event, dry weather and hot weather is not welcomed here

[DoctorMu]

Hit 100F here today. The neighborhood pool was great packed!

97.5°F here. You're in the Swamp Heat Island.

[davidiowx]

It was hot today! Just the beginning of it dries out and we don’t get some rain

Always the way it is. Zero rains for weeks or too much all at once.

Literally just stole the words right out of my mouth. Our weather here is wack. It used to not be like this. And my intuition is telling me that the water hose has turned off and we’re about to enter one long hot and dry pattern.

I have that feeling as well. I sure hope we are wrong. It’s been a wet May with 20”+ IMBY between the last week of April to the end of May. Not quite half our average through the year so far, but that heat and drought out west is concerning with the fast drying clay soil we have. I hope we don’t have a long watering season

[DoctorMu]

99°F in IAH today.

[Rip76]

While we’re watching the BOC, there’s some weather moving in from the East to the Houston area tonight.

[Stratton20]

00 Z GFS shows the same scenario, CMC further east, im disappointed that we wont get any rain from 92L

[unome]

sigh...

1 - Copy.jpg

[txbear]

It was hot today! Just the beginning of it dries out and we don’t get some rain

Always the way it is. Zero rains for weeks or too much all at once.

Literally just stole the words right out of my mouth. Our weather here is wack. It used to not be like this. And my intuition is telling me that the water hose has turned off and we’re about to enter one long hot and dry pattern.

Out of sheer curiosity, for the uninitiated (myself having lived here until a handful of years ago), what did it used to be like?

[srainhoutx]

The Tropical N Atlantic Basin is busy this morning...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system located about 90 miles southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical
characteristics. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form later today or tonight. This system is expected to
move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder
waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for
further development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche are
associated with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while
it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression
could form late in the week when the system moves northward into
the central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. A strong tropical wave just offshore of west Africa is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development
of this system is possible during the next few days before a
combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any
chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean late week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Cromagnum]

Waiting for ERCOT to make good on their threats to run out of power during these hot spells.

[redneckweather]

If this goes East of us (and looks like it is), get ready for a long hot dry spell going into fall.

I was born and raised here in Southeast Texas and the weather has always been feast or famine...nothing has changed.

[Cromagnum]

Drug the sprinklers out yesterday. Hoping I can set them to stun sometime this week with a lucky popcorn shower.

[Stratton20]

Interesting to note that the 00z Euro has the storm making landfall near Galveston or Beaumont, EURO was in SE Lousiana for the past few days so that is a pretty big shift west, still looks like the heaviest rain would still be east of us, but thats a shift that needs to be monitored in the 12z model runs

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff:

There has been little change in the overall organization with the broad elongated trough over the SW and S Gulf of Mexico over the last 24 hours. There continues to be no defined surface low pressure system at the surface and instead a broad trough axis extending from the coast of Mexico ESE across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in the area/region, but remain disorganized.

Global models continue to insist that a surface low will slowly and eventually form in this region toward the next or end of this week. Little motion is expected over the next 48-72 hours as steering currents remain weak, but a northward motion at an increasing forward speed is expected by Friday into the weekend. It will be important where the actual center forms in the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week as to the eventual final track of 92L along with the position and intensity of high pressure ridges over the SW US and off the SE US coast and a departing trough over the US east coast. There is likely to be some degree of WSW/SW upper level wind shear over the western Gulf of Mexico as 92L begins to lift northward along with a large mass of dry air over TX that may become ingested into the circulation of the system. This points toward 92L having the majority of its associated moisture well to the east of any actual surface center and increases the potential for center re-locations toward the deeper convective masses on the eastern flank of the system.

In following with the increasingly consistency of the global model guidance and the general steering pattern later this week, a northward motion is expected toward the NW or NC Gulf coast. At this time is appears the majority of the weather and impacts associated with 92L will be east of SE TX, but due to the uncertainty on where the exact center forms there remains some degree of uncertainty on the local impacts and as always when dealing with any sort of tropical system, pay attention to forecasts daily for any changes.

The NHC currently gives 92L a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days.

Elsewhere:
A brief tropical system may attempt to develop off the US east coast over the next 12-24 hours as satellite and radar images show a well defined circulation surrounded by showers and thunderstorms. Any development will likely be short lived and move generally away from the US east coast.

A tropical wave will exit Africa and while the wave looks impressive on satellite images, development is unlikely due to still cold June water temperatures.

[don]

Looking at the ensembles and operational runs models seemed to have honed in on a landfall area from the upper Texas coast to the south central Louisiana coast.But due to the likely lopsided nature (due to shear) of what is likely to become future Claudette. We would need a landfall around the middle Texas coast to get any significant rain.Unless the system ends up more organized and is able to produce core rains around the center.As others have said, where the system consolidates will have big implications on its landfall location.

[Stratton20]

Lets say if this storm is a bit stronger than anticipated, would a stronger system tend to go more Northwest? Maybe closer to us?

[Dls2010r]

Don’t think this is our storm. I’m ok with it. I finally was able to mow 2 outta 4 acres yesterday.

[Stratton20]

Im not ok with it, I cant walk my dog in this awful heat, rather take a sheared tropical system here than this absolutely oppressive heatI cant even go on my normal walks in the neighborhood because of this heat at least a weak tropical system would help keep temps cooler