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Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:42 am
by Andrew
Mr. T wrote:This system is failing to gain too much latitude at the moment, which bodes will for the southerly route models
12z CMC shows a Western LA landfall
Yea I know the gfs and cmc wont change. I think the more it stays over the Yucatan Peninsula the longer it will take to reorganize and the more south it will go.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:46 am
by Andrew
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:12 pm
by Scott747
12z HWRF is hinting at a shift to the N.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:16 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Scott747 wrote:12z HWRF is hinting at a shift to the N.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:17 pm
by Scott747
12z HWRF -
Only out to 96hrs.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:22 pm
by Andrew
Took out image but showed Corpus hit.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:23 pm
by srainhoutx
Another run, another shift N. Perhaps we are beginning to see a pattern develop.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:25 pm
by Scott747
Is that from the pay part of Accuweather Andrew?
If so you might want to get rid of it.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:26 pm
by Andrew
Scott747 wrote:Is that from the pay part of Accuweather Andrew?
If so you might want to get rid of it.
I'm not sure I was using it from 2k where Ivan posted it over there.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:29 pm
by srainhoutx
Dan is checking the legal information now.
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Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:29 pm
by biggerbyte
Folks, I would not buy much into the current little wobbles/jogs westward. All indications are that this is temporary. A more northerly component will be added as this storm slowly moves back over water. Folks in brownsville, northward should not count on the Mexico landfall that they are reading about. That could still happen, depending on a few factors, but right now the indicators show otherwise.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:30 pm
by Andrew
srainhoutx wrote:Dan is checking to legal stuff now.
Took it out.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:31 pm
by srainhoutx
Thanks Andrew.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:34 pm
by Scott747
12z GFDL right below the Tex/Mex border.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:47 pm
by Ptarmigan
So much uncertainty on where Alex will go in the next 5 days.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:48 pm
by txsnowmaker
Any guesses as to when the upper Texas coast might be added to the cone of uncertainty assuming that indications of a northward shift continue?
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:51 pm
by Andrew
txsnowmaker wrote:Any guesses as to when the upper Texas coast might be added to the cone of uncertainty assuming the northward shift continues?
IF euro moves up North a lot then the track could be shifted to have some of the upper Texas coast in it.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:54 pm
by Scott747
txsnowmaker wrote:Any guesses as to when the upper Texas coast might be added to the cone of uncertainty assuming the northward shift continues?
We might see somewhere around Freeport/Surfside on the outer edge of the cone with the next update @ 4 if they show a landfall adjustment more towards the Brownsville area.
The NHC won't make drastic changes from run to run.
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 1:03 pm
by redfish1
i think alex is starting to feel the weakness and possibly may start taking a more northerly track
Re: TD Alex. 85 Miles S of Campeche. 35 MPH/1000 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 1:06 pm
by redfish1
could someone please post a satellite view?
