Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Andrew]

This system is failing to gain too much latitude at the moment, which bodes will for the southerly route models

12z CMC shows a Western LA landfall

Yea I know the gfs and cmc wont change. I think the more it stays over the Yucatan Peninsula the longer it will take to reorganize and the more south it will go.

[Andrew]

[Scott747]

12z HWRF is hinting at a shift to the N.

[Hardcoreweather]

12z HWRF is hinting at a shift to the N.

[Scott747]

12z HWRF -

Only out to 96hrs.

[Andrew]

Took out image but showed Corpus hit.

[srainhoutx]

Another run, another shift N. Perhaps we are beginning to see a pattern develop.

[Scott747]

Is that from the pay part of Accuweather Andrew?

If so you might want to get rid of it.

[Andrew]

Is that from the pay part of Accuweather Andrew?

If so you might want to get rid of it.

I'm not sure I was using it from 2k where Ivan posted it over there.

[srainhoutx]

Dan is checking the legal information now.

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[biggerbyte]

Folks, I would not buy much into the current little wobbles/jogs westward. All indications are that this is temporary. A more northerly component will be added as this storm slowly moves back over water. Folks in brownsville, northward should not count on the Mexico landfall that they are reading about. That could still happen, depending on a few factors, but right now the indicators show otherwise.

[Andrew]

Dan is checking to legal stuff now.

Took it out.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks Andrew.

[Scott747]

12z GFDL right below the Tex/Mex border.

[Ptarmigan]

So much uncertainty on where Alex will go in the next 5 days.

[txsnowmaker]

Any guesses as to when the upper Texas coast might be added to the cone of uncertainty assuming that indications of a northward shift continue?

[Andrew]

Any guesses as to when the upper Texas coast might be added to the cone of uncertainty assuming the northward shift continues?

IF euro moves up North a lot then the track could be shifted to have some of the upper Texas coast in it.

[Scott747]

Any guesses as to when the upper Texas coast might be added to the cone of uncertainty assuming the northward shift continues?

We might see somewhere around Freeport/Surfside on the outer edge of the cone with the next update @ 4 if they show a landfall adjustment more towards the Brownsville area.

The NHC won't make drastic changes from run to run.

[redfish1]

i think alex is starting to feel the weakness and possibly may start taking a more northerly track

[redfish1]

could someone please post a satellite view?