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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:27 pm
by srainhoutx
Texaspirate11 wrote:Anyone have the EURO?
Moved inland just S of Corpus. Stalls. Moves back offshore around Rockport/Aransas Pass at 120 hours. South of Matagorda County offshore and strengthening at hour 144
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:35 pm
by tsb2107
Strain,
If the updated Euro model was to pan out, would this cause the expected rain amounts to decrease for the Houston area? Or would we still be in bad shape?
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:37 pm
by houstonia
Latest from Jeff:
Tropical depression Harvey forms in the southern Gulf and threat to the TX coast.
Potentially dangerous and life threatening rainfall and flood event increasingly likely over a large portion of SE TX and the coastal bed
Preparations for the landfall of a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane into the middle TX coast along with prolonged significant rainfall should start now.
Hurricane Watch is issued from Port Mansfield, TX to San Luis Pass, TX
Tropical Storm Watch is issued from San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX including all of Galveston Bay
Storm Surge Watch from Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay
NHC Impacts below (we try and get more detailed impacts out this afternoon):
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning.
Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could cause life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield to High Island..4 to 6 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:38 pm
by sambucol
Euro 150 hours, 981mb south of Galveston.
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:39 pm
by srainhoutx
tsb2107 wrote:Strain,
If the updated Euro model was to pan out, would this cause the expected rain amounts to decrease for the Houston area? Or would we still be in bad shape?
I do not believe so. The Euro wraps Harvey back up quickly after re entry to the NW Gulf Coastal waters. Brush Galveston and Chambers County as it strengthens and finally inland for a second time in near Sabine Pass/SW Louisiana.
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:40 pm
by davidiowx
I am in awwwwwwweeee with this run. What is this 2/3 straight days of this making landfall then coming back into the GoM and then strengthening into a full blown hurricane only to make landfall again on the Tx/La border area? This is just insane!
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:43 pm
by sau27
What concerns me about this Euro run is that it still keeps the storm in our vicinity all the way until Wednesday. At the end of the day these models are not going to be able to forecast all of the little wobbles these storms make. So as long as it is nearby I would say the threat remains the same.
On a slightly alternate note, if this indeed bounces back off shore just to our south I would be concerned about it pushing water into the bay and hindering bayou drainage.
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:44 pm
by houstonia
davidiowx wrote:I am in awwwwwwweeee with this run. What is this 2/3 straight days of this making landfall then coming back into the GoM and then strengthening into a full blown hurricane only to make landfall again on the Tx/La border area? This is just insane!
David - you're in Sugar Land - I am in southwest Houston - I think this storm is going to ride right up either alt 90 or 59 and give us a good wallop!!
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:45 pm
by srainhoutx
davidiowx wrote:I am in awwwwwwweeee with this run. What is this 2/3 straight days of this making landfall then coming back into the GoM and then strengthening into a full blown hurricane only to make landfall again on the Tx/La border area? This is just insane!
One word...Allison 2001. That was the last time we've seen such a scenario happen. It has happened before if you dig a bit into historical tracks of past storms along the NW Gulf Coast...
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:50 pm
by don
Even with the westward shift on the Euro the rainfall amounts still exceed 10+ inches across the area.
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:51 pm
by Scott747
As we have fixated on the 12z modeld runs...
Harvey has been stationary. How long this last could have an impact on track and what the output was with the 12z runs.
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:51 pm
by TexasBreeze
It is incredible to see the rain amts from GFS model. My house northern Harris 20-25 in. Surgarland-- 36 inches! Houston in general widespread 20+ inches! All in all, modeling remains consistant with a stall out scenario with loops. Just where is the main headache!
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:17 pm
by Katdaddy
18Z models are out........what a mess.
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:19 pm
by houstonia
Why so much trouble with predictions as it nears the coast?
1) because it's the GOM which is notoriously troublesome?
2) because of a frontal passage or trough?
3) because it's too far out to predict well?
4) some other reason?
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:34 pm
by djmike
Whens the next official track come out? Cant imagine what it will look like with these models a mess after landfall.
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:40 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Looks like my 2 year old colored the model tracks this guidance
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:41 pm
by DoctorMu
Waded wrote:TXWeatherFan wrote:Was supposed to head to Bolivar this weekend (VRBO rental), anyone think it would still be ok to head down and ride out the storm?
Not a great idea.
There are two ways off the Bolivar peninsula: the ferry and highway 87. The high tides/storm surge will shut down the ferry and flood highway 87 long before the storm makes landfall. Let me emphasis this. I've driven the beach (4x4ing) from Surfside in Freeport to Sabine Pass on LA border. Bolivar is basically sea level and highway 87 floods at the drop of a hat... especially at the eastern end where it connects with mainland. The ferries are low free-board boats that operate only in good weather and good seas - they shut down as easily as highway 87 floods.
Which means you will be trapped on the peninsula. So if the storm intensifies (and it may, storm intensity is more uncertain than storm direction) and makes a bee line for SE East (which intensifying storms are want to due - shift right/east) and you decide you no longer want to ride it out... well, sorry, too late, your trapped. The only way off is being swept out in the the sea... the third way to get off the peninsula.
Honestly, a quasi barrier island like Bolivar is the last place you should think about heading in the face of a tropical cyclone approaching Texas. You do not want to be here during a storm:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/us/16bolivar.html
That's gotta be Ike - virtually wiped out - primary site of fatalities. With counterclockwise circulation of a TC and landfall south of Galveston, Bolivar and the soundside of Galveston Island can get crushed by the storm surge.
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:52 pm
by DoctorMu
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Looks like my 2 year old colored the model tracks this guidance
It's amazing - front and trough have completely baffled the models. We could get 2 inches or 2 feet of rain!
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:16 pm
by srainhoutx
Wednesday 3:00 PM CDT briefing from Jeff:
Rainfall:
Widespread rainfall 10-15 inches across the entire region from the TX coast bend ENE to W/SW Louisiana. Isolated totals could exceed 20 inches or even higher.
Rainfall of this magnitude will result in widespread potentially devastating flooding of rivers, creeks, and bayous as well as flash flooding on short time scales where local rainfall rates may exceed 2-4 inches per hour. The entire region is at risk for these rainfall totals, but where maximum totals occur cannot be determined until the event is underway.
Rain bands will begin to approach the lower TX coast late Thursday and the coastal bend on Friday, spreading into SE TX (around Matagorda Bay Friday afternoon) and into much of SE TX Friday night. The system will linger over the region through the entire weekend and into the early portion of next week.
Storm Surge/Tides:
(the numbers listed below are total water levels)
San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Bay:
3-5 ft (2-4 feet above the lowest natural ground)
Possible tidal flooding around Clear Lake, Seabrook, Kemah, Shoreacres, lower San Jacinto River, Bolivar Peninsula, west end of Galveston Island
San Luis Pass to Port O Connor:
4-6 ft (3-4 feet above the lowest natural ground)
Overwash likely along the Brazoria and Matagorda County coast including Matagorda Island.
Minor coastal flooding along the western side of Matagorda and Lavaca Bays including the lower portions of (Port Lavaca, Indianola, Port O Connor)
Port O Connor southward:
Maximum coastal flooding/storm surge will in the area near and just west of Matagorda Bay across SW Calhoun and Aransas Counties possibly into San Patricio County. Coastal water levels in this area may reach 4-6 feet above MSL and 3-4 feet above ground level. Some slightly higher levels may be found at the heads inland bays and inlet.
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds will begin along the lower and middle TX coast early Friday morning just prior to sunrise. Tropical storm conditions will begin to arrive into the Matagorda Bay region around 800-900am and spread into most of coastal SE TX by 800pm Friday. Hurricane force conditions will approach the middle TX coast Friday late afternoon from Port Aransas to Matagorda Bay and inland across Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun, Victoria, Aransas, Refugio, and San Patricio Counties Friday night.
San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Bay (Galveston, Harris, Chambers, Fort Bend, Austin, Waller, Wharton Colorado: tropical storm force winds of at least 40mph will be possible by late Friday. Winds could gust up to 50-60mph across inland Wharton and Colorado Counties Friday night into Saturday.
San Luis Pass to Port O Connor: Sustained winds of 60-70mph Friday night with near hurricane conditions (especially Matagorda Bay area)
Port O Connor to Port Aransas: Sustained winds 65-75mph Friday night with higher gust
Actions:
Preparations to protect life and property should be underway in the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch areas
Strong emphasis must be placed on the potential for widespread flooding rainfall and those impacts
Prepare for sporadic power outages due to both wind and flooding (wind especially around Matagorda Bay)
The next two days is the time to prepare for prolonged impacts from Harvey.
Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo
Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:32 pm
by Ounce
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Looks like my 2 year old colored the model tracks this guidance
lol. I was thinking a 3 year old, but it's been a while since I've had a toddler. 2 year old it is.