February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has a "cool front" passing late Tuesday night, dropping our lows into the mid 30s Wed-Fri. Snow in northern Oklahoma and east. I think we need to wait another 2-3 days before we are really confident what will happen next week.

Or, to put it in Candy Cane's words - the Arctic front burns up on re-entry into Texas next week.

[weatherguy425]

One thing that we have going for us is that the cold air is in Canada, and already appears* to be starting its move south.

[biggerbyte]

Hi Andrew,

I don't think some us are changing tone at all. I, for one, have been throwing caution to the wind all along.
While I agree with you that cold Is coming, I might disagree with the confidence level in how much. We are still flip flopping with the frozen precip. thing as well. Even DFW could swing either way with the data we have today. This is not a time to give up on anything, but I would be open to all the possibilities to prevent mega disappointment.

[biggerbyte]

Looks like wxman57 pretty much said it all. If that model were to verify.. Well, all I can say is whatever with this weather. There is your answer as to why the NWS and local TV mets are not jumping on board yet.

[tireman4]

12Z GFS has a "cool front" passing late Tuesday night, dropping our lows into the mid 30s Wed-Fri. Snow in northern Oklahoma and east. I think we need to wait another 2-3 days before we are really confident what will happen next week.

Or, to put it in Candy Cane's words - the Arctic front burns up on re-entry into Texas next week.

Oh you wish were in the 80's next week!!!!

[jeff]

12Z GFS shows nothing out of the ordinary for next week temperature wise...but I think it will be much colder than the GFS is showing with the shallow arctic air mass pushing southward on Tuesday...likely reaching the coast. As discussed tremendously on here, the amount of cold air is in question (I could see lows in the 20's and highs in the 30's if clouds still around). Models seem to be trending more toward a classic wraping up of a mid latitude cyclone over the mid-MS valley middle next week allowing a drier flow on the backside and little to any "moisture" from Wed-Fri. Could be some ZR issues Tuesday along and behind the arctic front which I think will be cutting the state in half (or from roughly Del Rio to N of KAUS to Waco to DFW). The front could be a little bit more eastward in the northern part of the line...but I like the idea of the front daming against the lee of the Rockies and plowing southward into W TX and SW TX and slowly building eastward/southeastward with time. Could easily see 30's in Del Rio and 60's in College Station (at least early Tuesday). Temperature falls will likely be fairly dramatic and a location could easily fall from 65 to 35 in a few hours as the front passes.

[PaulEInHouston]

Not a lot of time as I have a meeting in a bit, but the 12Z GFS is suggesting a stronger secondary short wave to follow after the front passes. That feature would likely move past in the Thursday/Friday time frame if the GFS is correct. This is what HGX was concerned with this morning as well in their update. We will see.

That's what I mentioned this morning.

For what it's worth, my "guess" is the "coldest" air arrives mid-late week. As for precip, overrunning pattern to entice us with clouds with a possible lower Texas or mid Texas coastal low and/or SW that everyone follows with cross fingers/toes from the Baja area.

Lots of the models, esp Euro and GFS have been hinting and even depicting low pressure areas "stacked" back towards Baja and into Pacific in previous runs of last 4 or 5 days....all IMHO.

Edit** I love the taste of crow.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff, do you have any thoughts on this weekend? We have a lot of activities (Chevron Marathon) scheduled. It sure appears that a heavy rain event may be shaping up for Saturday evening into Sunday morning for SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Canadian just made a big shift...lol...secondary Upper Low to our W...

01282011 12Z GEM 144 595_100.gif

01282011 12Z GEM 12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Was that "The" Jeff?

Yep.

[tireman4]

Yes I have friends running the Houston Marathon...

[wxman57]

Jeff, do you have any thoughts on this weekend? We have a lot of activities (Chevron Marathon) scheduled. It sure appears that a heavy rain event may be shaping up for Saturday evening into Sunday morning for SE TX.

Let's make a wild assumption that the GFS has a clue about the weather for the next 48 hrs. The current run is indicating that light precip will start just before midnight Saturday night and peak between midnight and 6am Sunday (about an inch of rain). Only very light rain (less than 0.1") is forecast from 6am Sunday to noon. Race time temperature in the upper 50s with temps holding in the 60 degree range for the race. Cloudy with sprinkles of light rain the whole race.

I think the GFS forecast looks reasonable, but any delay with the passing disturbance could mean some heavier showers at the start of the Marathon.

As for Tuesday's "big event" here, the 12Z GFS forecasts rain with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, though I suspect the Tuesday forecast would be somewhat less accurate than the weekend forecast.

[unome]

so wxman57, you are Jeff Lindler?

[srainhoutx]

so wxman57, you are Jeff Lindler?

Nope.

[wxman57]

so wxman57, you are Jeff Lindler?

I know Jeff, though.

[unome]

well regardless, it's good to have all you pros using the forum & giving us your guidance - muchas gracias one & all !

and a very big "thank you" to Harris Co Flood Control for buying our last home from us

[jeff]

Jeff, do you have any thoughts on this weekend? We have a lot of activities (Chevron Marathon) scheduled. It sure appears that a heavy rain event may be shaping up for Saturday evening into Sunday morning for SE TX.

The GFS starts to shunt down the rain around the start of the run, but it may be doing so a bit too quick as I think its timing is a touch too fast. I suspect still light rain will be around for the run possibly with moderate to heavy rainfall toward the start or just prior. Interestingly both the GFS and WRF have reduced QPF for the Sunday event...especially the WRF.

[cristina99]

can we get back to the cold air? I'm so anxious to see what the Sunday models will be. Come on cold air - bitter cold.

[TexasBreeze]

At least the weekend rain will be a decently warm rain instead of 40's cold and dreary.

[snowman65]

can we get back to the cold air? I'm so anxious to see what the Sunday models will be. Come on cold air - bitter cold.

Relax.....lol....Don't get too excited in here, it's not healthy