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Quite a sharp NW turn on that NHC initial track. It appears Alex will enter the BoC about 20-30 miles south of their forecast. I don't see any sign of a turn now. Moving almost due west. Still looks like a final landfall in Mexico. Models (GFS/CMC) definitely having a hard time with the upper flow pattern across the Gulf, it appears.

Thanks for the update wxman57! A full package of NOAA and USAF assets will be flying in support of RECON missions...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 27 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-027

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 29/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0601A ALEX
C. 28/1330Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 70
A. 29/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0701A ALEX
C. 28/2030Z
D. 21.1N 93.4W
E. 28/2300Z TO 29/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 29/1200, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0801A ALEX
C. 29/0845Z
D. 21.8N 94.2W
E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE G-IV FLIGHT FOR 30/0000Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA 42 WILL BE DOING RESEARCH FLIGHTS INTO
ALEX WITH TAKEOFFS EVERY 12 HRS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
(28/0800Z, 28/2000Z ETC.) OPERATING ALTITUDE 12,000 FT.

wxman57 wrote:Quite a sharp NW turn on that NHC initial track. It appears Alex will enter the BoC about 20-30 miles south of their forecast. I don't see any sign of a turn now. Moving almost due west. Still looks like a final landfall in Mexico. Models (GFS/CMC) definitely having a hard time with the upper flow pattern across the Gulf, it appears.

Yes Wxman but on the last frame or so to me at least it look like the storm was taking a more NW movement or at least a wnw movement and NHC may believe the same:

LOCATION...18.7N 90.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Good morning Gulf of Mexico: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

Bluefalcon wrote:Good morning Gulf of Mexico: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

Yes indeed convection with Alex has calmed down but the sat pic shows a very organized storm over land. It will not take much to organize once it gets back into the water.

Does anyone have the latest microwave of it?

Bluefalcon wrote:Good morning Gulf of Mexico: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

Great image Bluefalcon. Welcome!

Ok nevermind Wxman it is indeed moving west. The think is what do you personally think about the models moving more north overnight. Even the EURO moved a little north. Could that be a sign of the things to come or are the canadian and GFS out to lunch?

Looks like the 12z operational GFS is sticking with its more northward movement. NHC puts more credence in the parallel though so that will weigh more heavily in any potential change in track.

Yeah I see that ... and it really slows Alex down ... thru 72 hrs. Then seems to rebuild the ridge around 72 hrs, forcing Alex west towards the south Texas coastline. Almost a Bret (1999) like track.

Edit udpate: thru 96 hrs, it stalls Alex off the coast ... maybe 100 miles east of Brownsville.

Portastorm wrote:Yeah I see that ... and it really slows Alex down ... thru 72 hrs. Then seems to rebuild the ridge around 72 hrs, forcing Alex west towards the south Texas coastline. Almost a Bret (1999) like track.

Edit udpate: thru 96 hrs, it stalls Alex off the coast ... maybe 100 miles east of Brownsville.

Correct.

Galveston:

Meh. Sticks with something between Galvestion and the Tx/La. border.

More interested in what the parallel is showing but the 12z isn't updating for me.

Too close for comfort:

Poor Sabine Pass ... a hit like this one would just about finish 'em.

The slow movement is concerning re the GFS. It will be interesting to see what the rest of the 12Z guidance package suggests. Also remember we will be getting some valuable data from RECON tomorrow with the G-IV , P-3 and well has C-130's.

srainhoutx wrote:The slow movement is concerning re the GFS. It will be interesting to see what the rest of the 12Z guidance package suggests. Also remember we will be getting some valuable data from RECON tomorrow with the G-IV , P-3 and well has C-130's.

Agree. I hope and don't think it will be that slow but if it is man talk about some bad stuff happening. First we get all the rain then we get the winds. The big thing I take out of this and where I think the NHC is messing up is it sends it NE after it gets inland. I don't think even if it makes a landfall in Mexico that it is going to turn southwest. I think a Northeast turn is more likely.


Looking forward to the Euro....

srainhoutx wrote:The slow movement is concerning re the GFS. It will be interesting to see what the rest of the 12Z guidance package suggests. Also remember we will be getting some valuable data from RECON tomorrow with the G-IV , P-3 and well has C-130's.

Alex doing a sit-and-spin off the Texas coast ... not nice. The 12z GFS track through 144 hrs suggests something quite similar to a 2005 hurricane with the same name as a Beatles song off Sgt. Peppers.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:What is the link for the parallel GFS?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml

Not loading for me.

Just don't see anything above Brownsville unless the parallel GFS starts to bite or the HWRF/Euro continues to hint at it. Clearly the operational GFS doesn't get much confidence with most of the NHC forecasters.

This system is failing to gain too much latitude at the moment, which bodes will for the southerly route models

12z CMC shows a Western LA landfall