June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[tireman4]

Speaking of Jack Beven......


000
WTNT33 KNHC 212034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CINDY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 93.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 93.2 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with a turn toward
the northeast expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center
of Cindy will move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern
Louisiana late tonight or early Thursday, then move near or over
extreme eastern Texas, western and northern Louisiana, and
southeastern Arkansas Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with
weakening expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from
oil rigs near the center is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday night. Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and
northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area this afternoon
through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible into tonight from the far
western Florida Panhandle across southwestern Alabama, southern
Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[tireman4]

One statement....as of now...for the pro mets....Larry was saying it was going NNE. I did not see it, but I am not a met. The 4 pm advisory states she is still going NW. Brooks mentioned this in his Facebook Live. So pro mets ( Srain, Jeff, Brooks, Andrew, Wxman 57), am I missing something?

[javakah]

Certainly not a pro-met, but I'm assuming that it has to do with the multiple-vortices. Take a look at the loop on GOES 16 for visible or IR and watch the 'center'. Earlier, it very much did appear to shift much more NNE, but that was as other vortices were more forming. Now it looks like another vortex (further west) has taken over as the more dominant one.

[jasons2k]

I'm beginning to wonder if we may get a decent shot of rain from this after all...

[srainhoutx]

For those interested, Dr. Neil Frank is on KHOU now with David Paul and Brooks.

[Andrew]

Still moving to the northwest. Multiple vorticities rotating through. Expect most likely landfall to be bet EAST of Galveston closer to the border.

[DoctorMu]

Importantly, a potent band of rain is heading toward Galveston Island from the ESE.

[don]

It will be interesting to see how far that big rain band to the east makes it into the area..

[djmike]

Pretty hefty downpour here in bmt. Heavier line about to enter. Wind wernt too bad. Rightnow maybe a sustained 15-20 and with this band that just went thru maybe a gust of 30. Late tonight is when bmt can expect the sustained 30-40 with gusts up to 50. Skies deteriorated all day and now we REALLY have the feel of something tropical and something lurking close by.

[Nuby33]

Not seeing as much north movement as others it seems like. Really seems to still be progressing to the west more than north to me still.. but I'm just going by radar. Very optimistic for rain chances at the moment

[Katdaddy]

Seeing some development E of Houston metro with a small rain band moving across Harris and Brazoria Counties. The rain band passed through League City not long ago.

[DoctorMu]

Yep. Incoming!

The center remains on a NW track while the west side bands are on a collision course with HOU. The windfield appears to be stronger



https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 556,29.609

[ticka1]

heavy rain here in baytown with little bit of wind - skies look tropical

[Stormrider]

So far, light rain and windy in Galveston. Salt marshes filling with rising water from tides.

[djmike]

Soon to slammed here in bmt with this strong rain band. Once its passes me ill post an update. I would think this one should have a few good gusts with it.

[Nuby33]

Soon to slammed here in bmt with this strong rain band. Once its passes me ill post an update. I would think this one should have a few good gusts with it.

That might be pretty slow to move through there overall. You guys look like you're about to get dumped on for a while.. have fun!

[unome]

she's pretty, but a small part of a bigger picture

[jasons2k]

The wind is starting to pick-up here. I also noticed a lot of lightening on the bands moving onshore, which is unusual for tropical systems. I wonder if the dry air mixing-in has anything to do with that. I also wonder of the dry air will help transport some of the gusty winds to the surface...

[Texaspirate11]

she's pretty, but a small part of a bigger picture

This is beautiful. I'm going to borrow this!

rain on and off by the bay winds picking up a bit

[djmike]

Heavy band now over beaumont. Oddly theres a bunch of lightning with it. You don't usually see that with a tropical system. Pouring buckets! Winds now at a good sustained 20 or so gusting to 30 with this band. Lots more to come for us in Beaumont.