April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:45 am

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

.A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONE TO THREE INCHES ON MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES POSSIBLE.

VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-TYLER-HARDIN-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON
542 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...AVOYELLES...
RAPIDES AND VERNON. IN TEXAS...HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...
NORTHERN NEWTON AND TYLER.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE

* AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT TIME COULD
RECEIVE FLOOD WATER TO DEPTHS THAT WOULD IMPACT PROPERTY AND
PEOPLE IN THOSE AREAS. AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE
ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RISES.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:49 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

LIBERTY TX-
548 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY UNTIL 630
AM CDT...

AT 548 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER DAISETTA...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARATOGA...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...DAYTON...AMES...DAISETTA...HARDIN...KENEFICK...DAYTON LAKES
AND MOSS HILL.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:51 am

Tornado Watch has been cleared (canceled) for SE Texas except for Harris, Liberty and Chambers Counties.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:55 am

Morning briefing from Jeff:

TX squall line currently moving across the northern portions of SE TX.

Wind damage has occurred over many of the northern counties with the eastward moving bow echo producing frequent wind gusts of 60-80mph.

Trailing outflow boundary extends from Chambers County to Matagorda Bay with a very moist and unstable air mass in place south of this boundary. Meso scale high pressure is rapidly building into the region behind the departing meso low over Polk County and this is resulting in strong 30-40mph winds across much of the region.

Main question is if/when/where additional storms will develop either this morning or this afternoon. Given bubble meso high building into the region think it will be hard to have additional activity this morning, but this will also result in rapid clearing of cloud cover and stronger surface heating. High resolution models show a corridor of instability developing over SE TX by mid afternoon where additional thunderstorms may develop. Cooling aloft will promote a stronger threat for hail this afternoon with any storms.

Will update again later this morning as trends become clearer.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:58 am

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
557 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

LIBERTY TX-HARRIS TX-CHAMBERS TX-
557 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN LIBERTY...NORTHEASTERN HARRIS AND NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS
COUNTIES...

AT 557 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BARRETT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...NORTHERN BAYTOWN...DEER PARK...GALENA PARK...
JACINTO CITY...LIBERTY...DAYTON...BARRETT...GREATER FIFTH WARD...
FOURTH WARD...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SECOND WARD...GREATER EASTWOOD...
DOWNTOWN HOUSTON...GREATER HEIGHTS...NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...
CHANNELVIEW...AFTON OAKS / RIVER OAKS AREA...HIGHLANDS AND MIDTOWN
HOUSTON.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 6:03 am

New Tornado Watch out for our neighbors in far SE Texas and Louisiana until 1:00 PM CDT.

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 126
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   600 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

   TORNADO WATCH 126 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS


   LA 
   .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

   ACADIA               ALLEN               ASCENSION           
   ASSUMPTION           AVOYELLES           BEAUREGARD          
   CALCASIEU            CAMERON             EAST BATON ROUGE    
   EAST FELICIANA       EVANGELINE          GRANT               
   IBERIA               IBERVILLE           JEFFERSON DAVIS     
   LAFAYETTE            LA SALLE            NATCHITOCHES        
   POINTE COUPEE        RAPIDES             ST. LANDRY          
   ST. MARTIN           ST. MARY            VERMILION           
   VERNON               WEST BATON ROUGE    WEST FELICIANA      
   WINN                 


  

   MS 
   .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   WILKINSON            
   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   JEFFERSON            ORANGE              


   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

   SABINE LAKE 

   CALCASIEU LAKE 

   VERMILION BAY 

   COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM 

   COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM 

   COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
   LA OUT 20 NM 

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...SHV...

Mon Apr 27, 2015 6:07 am

Greetings all from 9,000+ miles away in Australia,

I've been keeping tabs on what is going on in my homeland. Hope everyone is staying safe during the storms! Tornado Watches seem to be a theme across the SE TX area the past couple of weeks. Especially yesterday and possibly into today. Tornado watch yesterday early afternoon, one overnight, and possibly one later on today after looking at the latest data. It indicates isolated tornadoes if we can get enough instability (sunshine) once the storms clear out this morning.

Comparing the drought index from last month to now, a big dent sure has been put across the Lone Star State, which is excellent news. Unfortunately the severe side is coming with it.

It's after 9pm here currently, so I'm off to bed. Stay safe all!

Edit to add: I would just like to also point out, the HRRR has done an EXCELLENT job the past 24 hours.Will be interesting how it does today.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 6:15 am

Law Enforcement reports trees down across Montgomery County.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 6:16 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
EASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 614 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER WRIGHTS SETTLEMENT...OR NEAR BUNA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FIELDS...DEVILS POCKET AND WRIGHTS SETTLEMENT.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:33 am

The Storm Prediction Center update keeps a Slight Risk for severe storms going until early this evening before we will finally get a nice break from what seems like 45 days of rain and storm chances across the Region.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREA FROM
PARTS OF N TX SEWD TO THE CNTRL GULF CST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREA FROM
THE RED RVR VLY TO THE GULF CST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN
FL...

...SUMMARY...
A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL CROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHER STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AFTERNOON STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
MULTI-STREAM...CONVOLUTED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL FURTHER
AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN U.S...DOWNSTREAM
FROM VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING 140W. AMPLIFICATION OF
THE RIDGE AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF NERN STATES TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT
EWD PROGRESSION OF NM-W TX UPR LOW...WITH THE SYSTEM ONLY REACHING
NW TX THIS EVE...AND THE LWR RED RVR VLY EARLY TUE.

AT LWR LVLS...LA SQLN AND ASSOCIATED NNE-SSW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESE ACROSS LA THROUGH MIDDAY. WNW-ESE FRONT
AHEAD OF THE SQLN...NOW STRADDLING SRN LA...THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND NRN FL...SHOULD SETTLE A BIT SWD WITH TIME AS MAIN SFC
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM-TX UPR LOW DEVELOPS SE
INTO THE NWRN GULF.

...CNTRL GULF CST TODAY/TNGT...
E TX SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS SRN/CNTRL LA THROUGH
EARLY AFTN. FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE
FOSTERED BY ELY COMPONENT TO LOW-LVL FLOW NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY N OF
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT...HOWEVER...THESE ELY
TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRY AS THE FLOW TAPS DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR NOW OVER THE TN VLY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE SQLN TO SHIFT SWD INTO THE N CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO BY MID-AFTN...WITH THOSE PORTIONS PASSING MAINLY S OF
GPT-MOB.

ALTHOUGH LINEAR NATURE OF EXISTING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT...APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROVIDED BY
ELY LOW-LVL WINDS...RICH MOISTURE NEAR FRONT...PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL
MESOVORTICES IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND SUGGEST A CONTINUING RISK FOR
ISOLD TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND /REF WW 126/.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SQLN...MOIST...LOW-LVL CONFLUENT FLOW ATOP THE
MCS COLD POOL...AND UPLIFT ALONG INVERTED SFC TROUGH...SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCTD DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER PARTS OF SE
TX...SW LA...AND THE MIDDLE/UPR TX GULF CSTL PLN. ALTHOUGH WIND
PROFILES OVER THE REGION WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. THIS SETUP MAY
YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH A RISK FOR SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
OR TWO...THROUGH EARLY TNGT.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER ABOUT 06Z TUE...A SECONDARY SVR THREAT
MAY EVOLVE OVER SRN LA FROM NEAR LCH E TO AROUND NEW/BVE AS A SFC
WAVE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF W TX UPR LOW. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE NRN
GULF SFC FRONT MAY YIELD A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO OR
LOCALLY DMGG WINDS IF THE BOUNDARY ADVANCES INLAND. UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS SCENARIO PRECLUDES THE ADDITION OF
GREATER SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...N CNTRL TX THIS AFTN/EVE...
FARTHER NW...A SEPARATE ARC OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS MAY
ARISE THIS AFTN WITH SFC HEATING OVER PARTS OF NW AND N CNTRL
TX...IN DRY SLOT OF SLOWLY-MOVING UPR LOW. CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS
AND OVERALL PATTERN SUGGEST THAT A CLOSED SFC LOW WILL NOT BE
PRESENT. BUT CONFLUENCE ALONG INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ANY AREAS OF STRONGER HEATING. GIVEN
COOL MID-LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS 15C AT 500 MB/ AND 60+ KT SWLY DEEP
SHEAR WITH AN SIZABLE LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...A CONDITIONAL
RISK WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TORNADOES. ANY SUCH STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

...CNTRL/S FL THIS AFTN...
A FAIRLY STRONG N-S TEMP GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FL PENINSULA
TODAY AS WAA CLOUDS/SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE N CNTRL AND NE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG AND N OF SWD-SAGGING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ENCOURAGE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD DIURNAL STORMS ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
ALONG THE E CST SEA-BREEZE FRONT. RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1.75
INCHES/ AND 40-50 KT WLY 700-500 MB FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL...WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND
AND SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/27/2015

Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:01 pm

HGX AFD...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1100 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AN NWS STORM SURVEY IS ENROUTE TO
THE GRIMES COUNTY AREA TO ASSESS DAMAGE. WE WILL UPDATE WITH
INFORMATION AS WE RECEIVE IT FROM THE ASSESSMENT.

PEAK WINDS MEASURED LAST NIGHT
CONROE ASOS 62 MPH AT 435 AM
8SE OF NAVASOTA 55 MPH AT 412 AM
HUNTSVILLE ASOS 54 MPH AT 452 AM
1N OF WALLER 50 MPH AT 422 AM
BRENHAM AWOS 49 MPH AT 335 AM

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
THE AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE PARED
BACK THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...BUT...THIS AFTERNOON IS A
VERY DIFFERENT STORY. A SQUALL LINE THAT RACED THROUGH THE REGION
KNOCKING DOWN TREES IS WELL INTO LA WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF
STORMS) IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN TO
63-67 OVER SETX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE NEARSHORE WATERS UP THROUGH MATAGORDA BAY TO GIDDINGS TO JUST
WEST OF FORT WORTH. WATER VAPOR/UA CLEARLY SHOWS A DRYING TREND
ALOFT WITH STRONG SW FLOW OF 50+ KNOTS AT 500MB AND 80+ KNOTS AT
300MB. AS WE HEAT UP AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS
CONTINUES TO TREK EAST THIS SHOULD PLACE SETX IN A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...LL
CONVERGENCE AND A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. SB CAPE
VALUES SOAR TO 3500-4500 J/KG OVER THE NORTH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR ALOFT AND LOW LEVELS ONLY SOMEWHAT SHEARED
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES...THOUGH PROBABLY A LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES BUT THAT
IS A LOT OF CAPE IF WE CAN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE STORMS
SHOULD SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDING THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE HOUSTON AREA AFTER 2 AM WITH MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL AGREED WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS IN MOVING THE CURRENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA WHILE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW IN NM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

FOR THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD.
THE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM KHOU TO THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE
BY THE MID MORNING PERIOD. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS...RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTED BEST CHANCES WILL BE MORE TOWARD THE COAST. AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KHOU TO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH KCLL
AND KUTS BY AROUND 08Z...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KCXO AND KIAH BY
12Z.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 81 60 67 49 72 / 50 40 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 63 70 49 74 / 50 40 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 69 73 56 71 / 50 20 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:14 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271808Z - 271945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS LA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY EXTEND BACK INTO SE TX LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW AND CNTRL LA TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING
SWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MUCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 500 J/KG TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM. IN ADDITION...THE POE
WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 50 TO 55 KT OF FLOW AT 5 KM THAT IS CONTRIBUTING
TO SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WITH CELLS THAT CAN ROTATE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MOVE THIS CONVECTION NEWD ACROSS CNTRL LA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL COULD CONTINUE WITH CELLS THAT MOVE INTO
SW MS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CELLS WILL
PROBABLY INITIATE IN THE HOUSTON AREA ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG
RANGE. THIS CONVECTION COULD BE CLOSER TO BEING SFC-BASED AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
DEVELOP THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 04/27/2015

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:17 pm

Morning storm reports from Jeff:

Area was hit hard again this morning with widespread wind damage mainly along and north of HWY 105 along a large scale bow echo. Numerous reports of wind damage. NWS survey team is headed to Grimes County to inspect possible tornado damage/reports.

Air mass looks to become extremely unstable by early afternoon with CAPES of up to 4500 J/kg which may support more severe thunderstorms once temperatures hit 80 degrees.

Industry, Austin: numerous trees down

Brenham, Washington: trees down

Somerville, Washington: 4.0 inch diameter limbs broken

Hempstead, Waller: trees down on HWY 6 in Hempstead

Navasota, Grimes: ***Possible Tornado*** Doors torn off fire station, trees and power lines down

Anderson, Grimes: ***Possible Tornado*** damage to two homes.

Roans Prairie, Grimes: Gas Station damaged and tree blown down

Conroe, Montgomery: 62mph recorded at CXO (Conroe Airport). Numerous trees down across Montgomery County

Kennard, Trinity: trees down on FM 357 blocking road

Groveton, Trinity: widespread tree damage…some trees on structures

Huntsville, Walker: numerous trees down. HWY 75 blocked in places. Trees down on homes in Elkins Lake

Panorama Village, Montgomery: At least 35 large Oak trees down along Winged Foot Dr, with damage to homes.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:22 pm

Round 2 developing now...Eyes to the skies!

Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:35 pm

So, since the line is forming right at downtown Houston...shouldn't those of us on the west side miss out on this round?

Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:45 pm

Houstonkid wrote:So, since the line is forming right at downtown Houston...shouldn't those of us on the west side miss out on this round?

That is an excellent question, Houstonkid. The latest visible satellite imagery shows clear skies to the NW of Houston across the Bryan/College Station area. That area is actually in the 'warm unstable' area with the Pacific front further to the NW. There is a bit of upper level energy associated with the cold air aloft in the wake of the storms yesterday and overnight. As that disturbance nears SE Texas, it is possible to see storms develop now that we are achieving peak heating with abundant sunshine.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:47 pm

Thank you for the clarification sir. I am ready do be done with the severe weather for a while.

Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:52 pm

Houstonkid wrote:Thank you for the clarification sir. I am ready do be done with the severe weather for a while.

I think we ALL are. That said, we are watching the extended range guidance that suggests we may be back into a severe weather pattern as we enter the month of May. But that will be a different Topic if anyone cares to get us started looking ahead...

Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:53 pm

Will it move eastward through all of SETX or have a more northern projection?

Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:00 pm

djmike wrote:Will it move eastward through all of SETX or have a more northern projection?

It looks like storms will train across SE Texas into SW Louisiana until that Pacific cool front can sweep through and finally give a break for the rest of the week into the weekend.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
156 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HARRIS TX-LIBERTY TX-CHAMBERS TX-
156 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS AND NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
CDT...

AT 156 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
DAYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...DAYTON...CROSBY...NORTHWESTERN MONT BELVIEU...AMES...
KENEFICK...DAYTON LAKES AND LAKE HOUSTON.

April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

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