If we're below 25°F Tuesday morning in CLL I'll be surprised.
January 2025
GEFS still has us in a transition zone. I'm a little surprised that the trend toward warmer could be..."not so fast!"
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6064
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
29
FXUS64 KHGX 051147
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 439 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
- Strong cold front will move through the area today between 11am
and sunset. There is a chance for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms out ahead of and along the cold front capable of
producing strong wind gusts or a brief tornado.
- Drastic temperature change expected tonight with low
temperatures in the 20s to low 30s and wind chills in the teens.
Freeze Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for
tonight.
- Cold weather will persist through much of this week with
additional Cold Weather Advisories likely needed for all or
parts of the region during the overnight and early morning
hours.
- Small Craft Advisories are in effect today due to strong onshore
flow ahead of the approaching front. A Gale Watch has been
issued for this evening and tonight due to strong winds
following the cold front. The strong offshore flow will also
lead to abnormally low tides.
- A disturbance will move through the area midweek bringing
precipitation to the region. Southeast Texas will likely see
predominately rain showers, however there is a non-zero chance
for a light wintry mix in the northern parts of our region
Wednesday night into Thursday. Check back in the next few days
as forecast uncertainty likely decreases.
---
We have had some changes to our winter headlines this year, so let`s
review some of the definitions as we will be issuing some or all of
these this week:
- Freeze Warning: Unlike previous years, the Hard Freeze and
Freeze Warnings have been combined into one Freeze Warning
product. We still will generally only issue a Freeze Warning
once per county each winter for when temperatures are 32F for
at least 2 consecutive hours. We have already issue a Freeze
Warning for Montgomery County northwards this season. However,
we will issue a Freeze Warning again for when Hard Freezing
conditions (when temperatures fall to 24F for at least 2
consecutive hours) are expected. Freeze Warnings for Hard
Freezing conditions will be issued as many times as needed
through the winter season.
- Cold Weather Advisory: This replaces the old Wind Chill
Advisory, and will be issued when temperatures or wind chills
fall are 25F for Harris County and counties southwards, and
20F northwards to Houston County. (see
www.weather.gov/hgx/WWA_criteria for a visual representation of
the criteria)
- Extreme Cold Watch or Warning: These replace the old Wind Chill
Watch or Warning products, and will be issued when temperatures
or wind chills 15F for Harris County and counties southwards,
and 10F northwards to Houston County. (see
www.weather.gov/hgx/WWA_criteria for a visual representation of
the criteria)
Fowler
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 439 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
The next 12-15 hours will be the last of above normal temperatures
SE Texas will experience through at least the remainder of the week.
Temperatures this morning are running around 25 degrees above normal
(in fact the temperatures as of 3am are warmer than our normal high
temperature this time of year). Strengthening southerly flow ahead
an approaching strong cold front is the cause of these abnormally
warm conditions and increasing moisture across the area. Expect
isolated streamer showers to begin to pop up across the area after
sunrise, then increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms out
ahead of and along the cold front. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible with the activity out ahead of and
along the cold front. SPC continues the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for Severe Thunderstorms for most of the area with areas north of I-
10 and east of I-45 in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). There will be
plenty of shear available for storms to tap into (EBWD ranging
between 40-50kt), but instability will not be very high (MUCAPE of
1100-1600 J/kg) and cloud cover this morning will limit heating thus
keeping the cap in place. If we get breaks in the clouds this
morning, then the likelihood of thunderstorms will be higher.
*IF* these thunderstorms can get going, then one or two of them
could become strong to severe. Damaging wind gusts and the
possibility of brief/isolated tornadoes will be the main concern
with any strong to severe storms this afternoon, but cannot out rule
the possibility of hail either.
As of 3am, the cold front is moving its way through the Texas
Panhandle and is quickly on its way to our area. FROPA is expected
to occur in the Piney Woods/BCS area between 11am-1pm, the Houston
Metro between 2-4pm, and the off the coast by sunset. Once the front
is through your area, the threat of showers and storms comes to an
end. It will be ushering in a drastic change in temperatures. By
noon, temperatures across the area will be in the low to mid 70s
(and even upper 70s around Matagorda Bay), but by 6pm temperatures
will be in the 40s and 50s across the area with temperatures
continuing to fall. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper
20s to low 30s across the majority of the region with the Piney
Woods getting down into the low 20s. Blustery northerly winds of
15mph and gusts to 25mph will lead to wind chill values dropping
into the teens and low 20s by late tonight/early Monday morning with
the Piney Woods dropping to near 10 degree wind chill. Afternoon
high temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 40s for most
of the region. Conditions Monday night into Tuesday morning look
perfect for radiational cooling (clear skies, lighter winds) so
overnight lows may be a couple of degrees cooler than tonight.
Have gone ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for tonight into
Monday morning across the area due to the expected wind chills below
20F. This is the first Cold Weather Advisory issued by this office
since the change from issuing Wind Chill Advisories, but the
responses to it should remain the same: dress appropriately when
going outside (coat, hat, gloves, etc.), keep pets indoors as much
as possible, and use safe space heater practices if you use one.
Have also issues a Freeze Warning for tonight across the entire
area. The old Hard Freeze Warning has been folded into the Freeze
Warning, but the Freeze Warning will include hard freeze messaging
when needed. For tonight, a Freeze Warning for hard freezing
conditions (temperatures 24F expected) has been issued for
Madison, Houston, and Trinity counties. A Freeze Warning has been
issued for the rest of SE Texas tonight. Some counties have already
experienced their first freeze of the winter back in late
November/early December, and we typical only issue one Freeze
Warning per winter season (expect for hard freezing conditions).
However, after an extended period of above normal temperatures and
rainfall vegetation has likely become vulnerable to freezing
temperatures again. So, have decided to re-issue the Freeze Warning
for those counties. In addition to the cold weather related
headlines, a Wind Advisory may be needed along the coast tonight
where gusts to 30mph will be possible.
Additional area-wide Cold Weather Advisories are likely needed
Monday night with Freeze Warning for hard freezing conditions also
possible for counties north of Montgomery County.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 439 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
Tranquil and slightly warmer conditions are expected on Tuesday with
mostly sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the mid to
upper 40s north of I-10 and the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.
Temperatures will cool again to near or below freezing for much of
Southeast TX by early Wednesday morning, with lows in the 20s over
areas north of I-10, the upper 20s to low 30s along and south of I-
10, and the mid to upper 30s over the immediate coasts. Mostly
cloudy conditions on Wednesday, possibly overcast, will not allow
for much heating during the day and high temperatures could stay
closer towards the upper 30s to mid 40s range inland. PWs will
slowly rise during the day as a coastal low develops over the
Western Gulf, near the Lower TX Coast. This may bring in a few
showers over the coastal waters during the day.
Overnight Wednesday, an upper level trough will extend from the Four
Corners into the Baja California region. We may be under a quasi-
zonal flow aloft during that time, but several weaknesses to the
east of the trough could move overhead as the coastal low over the
Western Gulf tracks northward into the Mid/Upper TX Coast,
supporting the development of rain across the region. There is the
potential for a wintry mix overnight Wednesday into Thursday
morning, in particular over portions north of I-10, where
temperatures are expected to be near or below freezing. The NBM DESI
6 hr snow/freezing rain probability outputs are about 05-15% over
the Brazos and Piney Woods region. However, knowing exactly what and
how much precip we will receive during that timeframe is still
tricky. We will likely get a better idea early next week as models
come into better agreement. Regardless, be prepared for the
potential of wintry weather, especially during the overnight to mid
morning hours. Remember to dress in layers, cover or bring in
sensitive plants, bring pets indoors, insulate your pipes, and avoid
commuting if possible if icy roads/bridges are being reported.
Rain chances will be on the rise Thursday as the upper level trough
tracks east into the Southern Plains and the coastal low moves east
northeast across the Mid/Upper TX Coast. The wet weather pattern
will continue Thursday night into Friday morning as the low slowly
makes its way towards LA and a cold front pushes through. We will
once again need to keep an eye for the potential for a wintry mix
overnight Thursday into Friday morning, mainly over the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods region. Rain chances will decrease Friday and
strong gusty winds will develop in the wake of the front. CAA Friday
night will bring back low temperatures in the upper 20s for the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region and the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
For the upcoming weekend, we may have a gradual warming trend.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the morning for
areas along and south of I-10, and then MVFR conditions north of
IAH with CIGs around 2000ft. There is also a strong LLJ setting up
at around 2000-3500ft with winds of 40-45kt and some of these
winds will be mixing down to the surface by the late morning with
gusts to around 25kt. A cold front will move through the region
later today bringing with is scattered showers and storms along
and ahead of it. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
capable of producing strong wind gusts. FROPA will occur at
CLL/UTS at around 17-19z, IAH around 20-22z, and then through GLS
23-01z. After the cold front moves through, expect strong, gusty
north-northwesterly winds of 15-20kt with gusts to 25-35kt
possible and clearing skies. These conditions will persist through
tonight.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
Moderate to strong onshore winds and elevated seas are expected
today ahead of the Artic cold front, progged to move across
Southeast TX during day and pushing off the coast near dusk.
Advisories are currently in effect for the Gulf waters and Caution
flags are in effect for the bays. Expect areas of showers and
thunderstorms ahead and along the front. There is also a high chance
for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches.
Strong offshore winds will develop quickly in the wake of the front.
Winds at or near Gale strength are possible tonight into Monday
morning. A Gale Watch remains in effect Sunday night into Monday
morning and may be upgraded to a Gale Warning later this morning.
Strong offshore winds and elevated seas will likely require
Advisories through Monday night. For the rest of the week, moderate
to occasionally strong northeast to east winds are expected and will
likely require additional Caution flags and Advisories. The
persistent offshore flow could also result in low water levels over
the bays, in particular during low tide.
Rain chances return mid week into the end of the work week as a
coastal low develops over the Western Gulf and tracks into the
Mid/Upper TX Coasts and another cold front pushes through the
region. The front may push off the coast sometime Friday morning and
will usher in strong offshore winds and elevated seas Friday into
early Saturday.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 27 44 24 / 60 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 31 45 29 / 80 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 35 46 35 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
GMZ330-335.
Gale Watch from this evening through Monday morning for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-
370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto (24)
FXUS64 KHGX 051147
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 439 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
- Strong cold front will move through the area today between 11am
and sunset. There is a chance for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms out ahead of and along the cold front capable of
producing strong wind gusts or a brief tornado.
- Drastic temperature change expected tonight with low
temperatures in the 20s to low 30s and wind chills in the teens.
Freeze Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for
tonight.
- Cold weather will persist through much of this week with
additional Cold Weather Advisories likely needed for all or
parts of the region during the overnight and early morning
hours.
- Small Craft Advisories are in effect today due to strong onshore
flow ahead of the approaching front. A Gale Watch has been
issued for this evening and tonight due to strong winds
following the cold front. The strong offshore flow will also
lead to abnormally low tides.
- A disturbance will move through the area midweek bringing
precipitation to the region. Southeast Texas will likely see
predominately rain showers, however there is a non-zero chance
for a light wintry mix in the northern parts of our region
Wednesday night into Thursday. Check back in the next few days
as forecast uncertainty likely decreases.
---
We have had some changes to our winter headlines this year, so let`s
review some of the definitions as we will be issuing some or all of
these this week:
- Freeze Warning: Unlike previous years, the Hard Freeze and
Freeze Warnings have been combined into one Freeze Warning
product. We still will generally only issue a Freeze Warning
once per county each winter for when temperatures are 32F for
at least 2 consecutive hours. We have already issue a Freeze
Warning for Montgomery County northwards this season. However,
we will issue a Freeze Warning again for when Hard Freezing
conditions (when temperatures fall to 24F for at least 2
consecutive hours) are expected. Freeze Warnings for Hard
Freezing conditions will be issued as many times as needed
through the winter season.
- Cold Weather Advisory: This replaces the old Wind Chill
Advisory, and will be issued when temperatures or wind chills
fall are 25F for Harris County and counties southwards, and
20F northwards to Houston County. (see
www.weather.gov/hgx/WWA_criteria for a visual representation of
the criteria)
- Extreme Cold Watch or Warning: These replace the old Wind Chill
Watch or Warning products, and will be issued when temperatures
or wind chills 15F for Harris County and counties southwards,
and 10F northwards to Houston County. (see
www.weather.gov/hgx/WWA_criteria for a visual representation of
the criteria)
Fowler
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 439 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
The next 12-15 hours will be the last of above normal temperatures
SE Texas will experience through at least the remainder of the week.
Temperatures this morning are running around 25 degrees above normal
(in fact the temperatures as of 3am are warmer than our normal high
temperature this time of year). Strengthening southerly flow ahead
an approaching strong cold front is the cause of these abnormally
warm conditions and increasing moisture across the area. Expect
isolated streamer showers to begin to pop up across the area after
sunrise, then increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms out
ahead of and along the cold front. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible with the activity out ahead of and
along the cold front. SPC continues the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for Severe Thunderstorms for most of the area with areas north of I-
10 and east of I-45 in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). There will be
plenty of shear available for storms to tap into (EBWD ranging
between 40-50kt), but instability will not be very high (MUCAPE of
1100-1600 J/kg) and cloud cover this morning will limit heating thus
keeping the cap in place. If we get breaks in the clouds this
morning, then the likelihood of thunderstorms will be higher.
*IF* these thunderstorms can get going, then one or two of them
could become strong to severe. Damaging wind gusts and the
possibility of brief/isolated tornadoes will be the main concern
with any strong to severe storms this afternoon, but cannot out rule
the possibility of hail either.
As of 3am, the cold front is moving its way through the Texas
Panhandle and is quickly on its way to our area. FROPA is expected
to occur in the Piney Woods/BCS area between 11am-1pm, the Houston
Metro between 2-4pm, and the off the coast by sunset. Once the front
is through your area, the threat of showers and storms comes to an
end. It will be ushering in a drastic change in temperatures. By
noon, temperatures across the area will be in the low to mid 70s
(and even upper 70s around Matagorda Bay), but by 6pm temperatures
will be in the 40s and 50s across the area with temperatures
continuing to fall. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper
20s to low 30s across the majority of the region with the Piney
Woods getting down into the low 20s. Blustery northerly winds of
15mph and gusts to 25mph will lead to wind chill values dropping
into the teens and low 20s by late tonight/early Monday morning with
the Piney Woods dropping to near 10 degree wind chill. Afternoon
high temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 40s for most
of the region. Conditions Monday night into Tuesday morning look
perfect for radiational cooling (clear skies, lighter winds) so
overnight lows may be a couple of degrees cooler than tonight.
Have gone ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for tonight into
Monday morning across the area due to the expected wind chills below
20F. This is the first Cold Weather Advisory issued by this office
since the change from issuing Wind Chill Advisories, but the
responses to it should remain the same: dress appropriately when
going outside (coat, hat, gloves, etc.), keep pets indoors as much
as possible, and use safe space heater practices if you use one.
Have also issues a Freeze Warning for tonight across the entire
area. The old Hard Freeze Warning has been folded into the Freeze
Warning, but the Freeze Warning will include hard freeze messaging
when needed. For tonight, a Freeze Warning for hard freezing
conditions (temperatures 24F expected) has been issued for
Madison, Houston, and Trinity counties. A Freeze Warning has been
issued for the rest of SE Texas tonight. Some counties have already
experienced their first freeze of the winter back in late
November/early December, and we typical only issue one Freeze
Warning per winter season (expect for hard freezing conditions).
However, after an extended period of above normal temperatures and
rainfall vegetation has likely become vulnerable to freezing
temperatures again. So, have decided to re-issue the Freeze Warning
for those counties. In addition to the cold weather related
headlines, a Wind Advisory may be needed along the coast tonight
where gusts to 30mph will be possible.
Additional area-wide Cold Weather Advisories are likely needed
Monday night with Freeze Warning for hard freezing conditions also
possible for counties north of Montgomery County.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 439 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
Tranquil and slightly warmer conditions are expected on Tuesday with
mostly sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the mid to
upper 40s north of I-10 and the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.
Temperatures will cool again to near or below freezing for much of
Southeast TX by early Wednesday morning, with lows in the 20s over
areas north of I-10, the upper 20s to low 30s along and south of I-
10, and the mid to upper 30s over the immediate coasts. Mostly
cloudy conditions on Wednesday, possibly overcast, will not allow
for much heating during the day and high temperatures could stay
closer towards the upper 30s to mid 40s range inland. PWs will
slowly rise during the day as a coastal low develops over the
Western Gulf, near the Lower TX Coast. This may bring in a few
showers over the coastal waters during the day.
Overnight Wednesday, an upper level trough will extend from the Four
Corners into the Baja California region. We may be under a quasi-
zonal flow aloft during that time, but several weaknesses to the
east of the trough could move overhead as the coastal low over the
Western Gulf tracks northward into the Mid/Upper TX Coast,
supporting the development of rain across the region. There is the
potential for a wintry mix overnight Wednesday into Thursday
morning, in particular over portions north of I-10, where
temperatures are expected to be near or below freezing. The NBM DESI
6 hr snow/freezing rain probability outputs are about 05-15% over
the Brazos and Piney Woods region. However, knowing exactly what and
how much precip we will receive during that timeframe is still
tricky. We will likely get a better idea early next week as models
come into better agreement. Regardless, be prepared for the
potential of wintry weather, especially during the overnight to mid
morning hours. Remember to dress in layers, cover or bring in
sensitive plants, bring pets indoors, insulate your pipes, and avoid
commuting if possible if icy roads/bridges are being reported.
Rain chances will be on the rise Thursday as the upper level trough
tracks east into the Southern Plains and the coastal low moves east
northeast across the Mid/Upper TX Coast. The wet weather pattern
will continue Thursday night into Friday morning as the low slowly
makes its way towards LA and a cold front pushes through. We will
once again need to keep an eye for the potential for a wintry mix
overnight Thursday into Friday morning, mainly over the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods region. Rain chances will decrease Friday and
strong gusty winds will develop in the wake of the front. CAA Friday
night will bring back low temperatures in the upper 20s for the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region and the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
For the upcoming weekend, we may have a gradual warming trend.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the morning for
areas along and south of I-10, and then MVFR conditions north of
IAH with CIGs around 2000ft. There is also a strong LLJ setting up
at around 2000-3500ft with winds of 40-45kt and some of these
winds will be mixing down to the surface by the late morning with
gusts to around 25kt. A cold front will move through the region
later today bringing with is scattered showers and storms along
and ahead of it. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
capable of producing strong wind gusts. FROPA will occur at
CLL/UTS at around 17-19z, IAH around 20-22z, and then through GLS
23-01z. After the cold front moves through, expect strong, gusty
north-northwesterly winds of 15-20kt with gusts to 25-35kt
possible and clearing skies. These conditions will persist through
tonight.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
Moderate to strong onshore winds and elevated seas are expected
today ahead of the Artic cold front, progged to move across
Southeast TX during day and pushing off the coast near dusk.
Advisories are currently in effect for the Gulf waters and Caution
flags are in effect for the bays. Expect areas of showers and
thunderstorms ahead and along the front. There is also a high chance
for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches.
Strong offshore winds will develop quickly in the wake of the front.
Winds at or near Gale strength are possible tonight into Monday
morning. A Gale Watch remains in effect Sunday night into Monday
morning and may be upgraded to a Gale Warning later this morning.
Strong offshore winds and elevated seas will likely require
Advisories through Monday night. For the rest of the week, moderate
to occasionally strong northeast to east winds are expected and will
likely require additional Caution flags and Advisories. The
persistent offshore flow could also result in low water levels over
the bays, in particular during low tide.
Rain chances return mid week into the end of the work week as a
coastal low develops over the Western Gulf and tracks into the
Mid/Upper TX Coasts and another cold front pushes through the
region. The front may push off the coast sometime Friday morning and
will usher in strong offshore winds and elevated seas Friday into
early Saturday.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 27 44 24 / 60 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 31 45 29 / 80 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 35 46 35 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
GMZ330-335.
Gale Watch from this evening through Monday morning for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-
370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto (24)
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6064
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
A Tornado watch has been hoisted. The readings are not as stout as I have seen, but the variables for severe weather are there.
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-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 546
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
We have 4 days plenty of time
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5374
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
At this time frozen precipitation is looking pretty unlikely in se texas, we will have to wait until probably late month- early february for another shot at seeing wintery precipitation, but for this system, its going to be miserable cold rain
-
Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
Ya, stick a fork in her. She's done..
It's basically northern half of texas..Austin and San antonio might get lucky but it's not looking that great for them either
It's basically northern half of texas..Austin and San antonio might get lucky but it's not looking that great for them either
I wouldn’t give up on wintery precipitation yet. Models have us to close. We are still a few day out. It may come down to now casting. Also , we typically do get a real threat until late January early February.
-
Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
Based on the amount of action going on in here I say everybody has pretty much given up hope l o l
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6064
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Let me reiterate what MontgomeryCoWx stated. There are some of us that are in the northern parts of the CWA, so the risk, however few they are,might still be there. Also, predicting frozen P Type precipitation is very tricky in our area.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5374
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Ensembles are in an agreement on a pattern that could support severe cold over the central plains mid- late month
Just got back from Hobby and dropping off our son. The front gave us a 2 minute head start in CLL and has blasted through.
It ain't over 'til it's over. Still a slight chance in CLL. We're in an unpredictable transition zone.
10z GEFS
10z GEFS
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Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
It will change lolStratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:33 pm Ensembles are in an agreement on a pattern that could support severe cold over the central plains mid- late month
-
Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
Is CLL college station?
-
Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
Anyone know where the front is now?
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5374
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Brazoriatx979 not likely, MJO slow progression in phase 2 as Montgomery pointed out, we are going to get cold again later on in the month, potentially alot colder, this first pattern was never going to deliver the goods down here, just a step down process to a much bigger pattern later in the month, trough axis mean is centered over the central US late month, we will have a better opportunity come late january
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christinac2016
- Posts: 156
- Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:18 pm
- Location: The Woodlands
- Contact:
And rain is coming down in oak ridge.